Local Council By-elections 7th Feb 2019

[liverpoolliberal]

Shadwell

Independent 119
Green 125
Lib Dem 484
Aspire 1012
Labour 914
WEP 65
Conservatives 185

[timrollpickering]

[Davıd Boothroyd]

TOWER HAMLETS Shadwell

MIAH, Mohammad Harun (Aspire) 1,012
RAHMAN, Asik (Labour) 914
MIAH, Abjol (Liberal Democrat) 484
STAFFORD, Daryl Martin (Conservative) 185
KIELY, Timothy Patrick (Green) 125
GOUS-MIAH, Kazi Mohammad (Independent) 119
SCHERBATYKH, Elena (Women’s Equality Party) 65

[timrollpickering]

[timrollpickering]

[No Offence Alan]

Feb 8, 2019 0:19:05 GMT timmullen1 said:

Feb 8, 2019 0:11:19 GMT iainbhx said:

OK, I'm trying to be careful here because none of this has been confirmed, but the arrest was alleged to have been about election offences. This has been covered in this thread.

As I said, I have some actual practical knowledge of election petitions, I do know what is at least viable.

However if found guilty of charge(s) relating to the offence referred to in the Police’s Tweet, then I’m guessing any discussion of Election Petitions is likely to be moot as the sentence is surely going to be of an automatic disqualification length anyway?

This is a genuine question, but can the Electoral Court, even if it has to receive a complaint within 28 days of the election, usurp a criminal investigation? How do you overcome the potential of being declared innocent by one but guilty by the other? Would not a guilty verdict in an Electoral Court held before any criminal trial end the chances of a free and fair criminal trial (unless the verdict was embargoed until after any criminal trial)?

Presumably the Electoral Court, if presented with an election petition, could just adjourn until the criminal proceedings are complete?

[middleenglander]

Bradford, Bolton & Undercliffe - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour

Party	2019 votes	2019 share	since 2018	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014
Liberal Democrat	1,733	51.3%	+9.0%	-0.9%	+14.4%	+0.1%
Labour	1,153	34.1%	-10.6%	+3.8%	+1.6%	-3.9%
Conservative	418	12.4%	+2.4%	+7.9%	+1.7%	+1.7%
Green	73	2.2%	-0.8%	+0.3%	-1.6%	from nowhere
UKIP				-11.1%	-16.2%
Total votes	3,377		90%	84%	51%	88%

Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 9¾% since 2018, 6½% since 2015 and 2% since 2014 but Liberal Democrat to Labour 2¼% since 2016

Council now 51 Labour, 21 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 7 Various Independents, 2 Green

Buckinghamshire, Totteridge & Bowerdean - Labour (suspended by party) gain from East Wycombe Independent

Party	2019 votes	2019 share	since 2017	since 2013
Labour	978	40.8%	+15.5%	+13.5%
East Wycombe Independent	668	27.8%	-12.1%	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	508	21.2%	+6.4%	-17.6%
Conservative	245	10.2%	-9.8%	-9.4%
UKIP				-14.4%
Total votes	2,399		103%	98%

Swing East Wycombe Independent to Labour 13¾% since 2017 otherwise not meaningful

Council now 41 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Labour, 1 East Wycombe Independent, 1 Independent, 1 suspended Labour

Lambeth, Thornton - Labour hold

Party	2019 votes	2019 share	since 2018 "top"	since 2018 "average"	since 2014 "top"	since 2014 "average"
Labour	1,154	44.7%	-18.2%	-19.0%	-7.8%	-8.8%
Liberal Democrat	845	32.8%	+23.1%	+23.5%	+26.5%	+26.6%
Green	251	9.7%	-1.7%	-1.1%	+1.4%	+1.9%
Conservative	247	9.6%	-6.4%	-6.5%	-5.7%	-4.3%
Women's Equality	46	1.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP	36	1.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-16.2%	-17.2%
Total votes	2,579		76%	81%	59%	63%

Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 20¾% / 21½% since 2018 and 17½% / 17¾% since 2014

Council now 57 Labour, 5 Green, 1 Conservative with an impending vacancy (Labour)

Tower Hamlets, Lansbury - Labour hold

Party	2019 votes	2019 share	since 2018 "top"	since 2018 "average"	since 2014 "top"	since 2014 "average"
Labour	1,308	40.8%	+2.5%	-0.3%	+2.2%	+2.4%
Aspire *	1,002	31.3%	+7.0%	+8.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	290	9.0%	+0.0%	+0.4%	+4.9%	+4.6%
UKIP	176	5.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-7.4%	-8.6%
Conservative	175	5.5%	-1.7%	-1.8%	-1.4%	-0.6%
Green	166	5.2%	-1.6%	-2.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
House	89	2.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
People's Alliance			-11.6%	-9.4%
Independent			-3.0%	-3.5%
Tower Hamlets First					-34.2%	-33.3%
TUSC					-3.4%	-3.7%
Total votes	3,206		57%	68%	57%	62%

* elected as Labour in 2006 and Tower Hamlets First in 2014

Swing Labour to Aspire 2¼% / 4½% since 2018

Council now 41 Labour, 2 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Aspire

Tower Hamlets, Shadwell - Aspire gain from Labour

Party	2019 votes	2019 share	since 2018 "top"	since 2018 "average"	since 2014 "top"	since 2014 "average"
Aspire *	1,012	34.8%	+13.3%	+16.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	914	31.5%	+4.0%	-0.3%	-0.1%	+4.4%
Liberal Democrat **	484	16.7%	+13.1%	+12.6%	+13.6%	+13.4%
Conservative	185	6.4%	+2.5%	+2.1%	-0.9%	-1.3%
Green	125	4.3%	+0.0%	+0.1%	-3.3%	-3.8%
Independent	119	4.1%	-1.2%	-2.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Women's Equality	65	2.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
People's Alliance			-33.9%	-30.5%
Tower Hamlets First					-47.4%	-50.6%
TUSC					-3.0%	-3.2%
Total votes	2,904		63%	76%	63%	67

* elected as Respect in 2010 and Tower Hamlets First in 2014
** elected as Respect in 2006

Swing Labour to Aspire 4¾% / 8¼% since 2018

Council now 41 Labour, 2 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Aspire

Wokingham, Evendons - Liberal Democrat hold

Party	2019 votes	2019 share	since 2018	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014
Liberal Democrat	1,441	63.1%	+16.3%	+24.9%	+42.6%	+40.3%
Conservative	729	31.9%	-8.8%	-11.3%	-18.9%	-14.8%
Labour	115	5.0%	-7.5%	-8.3%	-5.8%	-6.1%
No Description				-5.2%
UKIP					-10.1%	-16.6%
Green					-7.8%
Independent						-2.7%
Total votes	Row 9 column 2		78%	104%	45%	87%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 12½% since 2018, 18% since 2016, 30¾% since 2015 and 27½% since 2014

Council now 41 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 2 Independent

[timmullen1]

Feb 8, 2019 1:21:40 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Feb 8, 2019 0:19:05 GMT timmullen1 said:

However if found guilty of charge(s) relating to the offence referred to in the Police’s Tweet, then I’m guessing any discussion of Election Petitions is likely to be moot as the sentence is surely going to be of an automatic disqualification length anyway?

This is a genuine question, but can the Electoral Court, even if it has to receive a complaint within 28 days of the election, usurp a criminal investigation? How do you overcome the potential of being declared innocent by one but guilty by the other? Would not a guilty verdict in an Electoral Court held before any criminal trial end the chances of a free and fair criminal trial (unless the verdict was embargoed until after any criminal trial)?

Presumably the Electoral Court, if presented with an election petition, could just adjourn until the criminal proceedings are complete?

Yes, that’s what I was trying to get, which takes precedence?

[timrollpickering]

If you treat Aspire and Tower Hamlets First as the same thing, what are the changes since 2014?

[andrewp]

That’s a pretty good week for the Lib Dem’s.

[Chris from Brum]

Feb 8, 2019 7:50:17 GMT andrewp said:

That’s a pretty good week for the Lib Dem’s.

Agreed.  Two wins, one a gain, with vote share up in five of six contests, and unchanged in the other one.  I'll take that happily.  Thornton will definitely be interesting next time.

[middleenglander]

Feb 8, 2019 1:39:32 GMT timrollpickering said:

If you treat Aspire and Tower Hamlets First as the same thing, what are the changes since 2014?

Lansbury: swing Tower Hamlets First / Aspire to Labour 2½% / 2¼% since 2014

Shadwell: swing Tower Hamlets First / Aspire to Labour 6¼% / 10% since 2014

[carlton43]

Feb 8, 2019 9:13:28 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Feb 8, 2019 7:50:17 GMT andrewp said:

That’s a pretty good week for the Lib Dem’s.

Agreed.  Two wins, one a gain, with vote share up in five of six contests, and unchanged in the other one.  I'll take that happily.  Thornton will definitely be interesting next time.

It is always interesting.  I prefer the Continental Selection to anything else.

[No Offence Alan]

Feb 8, 2019 7:50:17 GMT andrewp said:

That’s a pretty good week for the Lib Dem’s.

The extra week of campaigning and the better weather made all the difference.

[Chris from Brum]

Feb 8, 2019 9:26:47 GMT carlton43 said:

Feb 8, 2019 9:13:28 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Agreed.  Two wins, one a gain, with vote share up in five of six contests, and unchanged in the other one.  I'll take that happily.  Thornton will definitely be interesting next time.

It is always interesting.  I prefer the Continental Selection to anything else.

[yellowperil]

Feb 8, 2019 9:28:38 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Feb 8, 2019 7:50:17 GMT andrewp said:

That’s a pretty good week for the Lib Dem’s.

The extra week of campaigning and the better weather made all the difference.

[The Bishop]

Jan 31, 2019 22:19:01 GMT southernliberal said:

Jan 31, 2019 0:16:55 GMT peter said:

I have to nominate a potential for the dodgy bar competition of 2019.Leaflet headed "It's Lib Dem or Labour in Shadwell on February 7" currently being circulated. Last year the Liberal Democrat candidate secured 4.3% of the vote. Even with a five times defector as candidate. I suspect exceeding Labour's 41% might be a long haul.

The feelings on the ground (and the data) is it really is a two-horse race between us and Labour in Shadwell. While we didn't do well in the ward last year, having Rabina Khan come over to us (who represents this ward) has helped immensely and I'd be very surprised if we didn't come first or second. 

Are you surprised, then?

In reality it was a case of "vote LibDem, get Rahman"

[peter]

The Tower Hamlets results have to be looked at in the context of Tower Hamlets. Four former Rahman supporting councillors standing for two different parties won 2,786 votes. The combined Labour vote was 2,222. That will not be lost on Lutfur Rahman and his backers. Knowing how flexible the party affiliations are of many of these people I am confident that the Liberal Democrats have got all they can from the former Rahman candidates and councillors.

Staggeringly, despite the corruption and all that is well known about Lutfur Rahman and his supporters, without splits they are well placed in both the 2022 combined Mayoral elections in the borough. Lutfur Rahman himself was seen campaigning in both wards.

Noticing some of the interesting characters from the Rahman era who were around yesterday, there will be pressure for a united front. There is a serious public interest question here. How and why did the Liberal Democrats recruit these two candidates? Abjol Miah, an Respect activist, campaigned in Shadwell as he always has done. A large proportion of his votes would have come from people who had no affiliation to the principles of the Liberal Democrats and it is safe to say that they will melt away very quickly.

There were still problems yesterday at polling stations with groups of frequently aggressive males harassing voters. The police cleared them away several times. I witnessed a man inside a polling station photographing both sides of his completed ballot paper. He was made to delete both pictures by the presiding officer. The police officer on duty was disappointed that she had not been called earlier and only knew after he left the premises.

A disappointing day for my two candidates. Of concern is the work that still needs to be done to improve the politics of this borough. There remains far too much emphasis on what is known as "community politics." One lesson is that all mainstream political parties should be wary of what "gifts" the ex Rahman councillors may bring. Abjol Miah, along with supporters despite the press release was campaigning to the close of poll. Liberal Democrat scrutineers were in place throughout the Shadwell count.

We did see the former councillor whose resignation, amidst various allegations caused the Lansbury by election, walking along Cable Street in Shadwell. He was not campaigning, despite this being Tower Hamlets !

[carlton43]

Feb 8, 2019 11:41:56 GMT peter said:

The Tower Hamlets results have to be looked at in the context of Tower Hamlets. Four former Rahman supporting councillors standing for two different parties won 2,786 votes. The combined Labour vote was 2,222. That will not be lost on Lutfur Rahman and his backers. Knowing how flexible the party affiliations are of many of these people I am confident that the Liberal Democrats have got all they can from the former Rahman candidates and councillors.

Staggeringly, despite the corruption and all that is well known about Lutfur Rahman and his supporters, without splits they are well placed in both the 2022 combined Mayoral elections in the borough. Lutfur Rahman himself was seen campaigning in both wards.

Noticing some of the interesting characters from the Rahman era who were around yesterday, there will be pressure for a united front. There is a serious public interest question here. How and why did the Liberal Democrats recruit these two candidates? Abjol Miah, an Respect activist, campaigned in Shadwell as he always has done. A large proportion of his votes would have come from people who had no affiliation to the principles of the Liberal Democrats and it is safe to say that they will melt away very quickly.

There were still problems yesterday at polling stations with groups of frequently aggressive males harassing voters. The police cleared them away several times. I witnessed a man inside a polling station photographing both sides of his completed ballot paper. He was made to delete both pictures by the presiding officer. The police officer on duty was disappointed that she had not been called earlier and only knew after he left the premises.

A disappointing day for my two candidates. Of concern is the work that still needs to be done to improve the politics of this borough. There remains far too much emphasis on what is known as "community politics." One lesson is that all mainstream political parties should be wary of what "gifts" the ex Rahman councillors may bring. Abjol Miah, along with supporters despite the press release was campaigning to the close of poll. Liberal Democrat scrutineers were in place throughout the Shadwell count.

We did see the former councillor whose resignation, amidst various allegations caused the Lansbury by election, walking along Cable Street in Shadwell. He was not campaigning, despite this being Tower Hamlets !

This is really in the wrong thread and wrong section.

To all intents and purposes Tower Hamlets is a Foreign Election in a Foreign Country with all the attendant eccentricities, illegalities and damn nonsense one expects of Foreigners.

[Crimson King]

can I just say I was v pleased with the result in the Jewel (once I had warmed up, it was bloody cold on the cliff edge which is Bolton)