Local Council By-elections 7th Feb 2019

[Tony Otim]

After the famine of January, comes a relative feast at the start of February, including two in Tower Hamlets, both of which feature 2 ex-councillors on the ballot paper.

BRADFORD MBC; Bolton & Undercliffe (Lab died)
Candidates:
HUSSAIN, Amriz Khan (Labour)
SINGH, Ranbir (Conservative)
SUNDERLAND, Rachel Emma (Liberal Democrat)
WORSNOP, Phil (Green)

2018: Lab 1686; LD 1596; Con 376; Grn 113
2016: LD 2088; Lab 1214; UKIP 443; Con 179; Grn 75
2015: LD 2457; Lab 2164; UKIP 1075; Con 708; Grn 251
2014: LD 1969; Lab 1462; Con 412
2012: LD 1888; Lab 1175; Resp 529; Con 264
2011: LD 1825; Lab 1536; Con 499
2010: LD 3047; Lab 1686; Con 1226; BNP 492; Grn 149; Dem Nat 57
2008: LD 2139; Lab 798; Con 557; Grn 232
2007: LD 2050, 1835; Lab 919, 860; Con 650, 545; Grn 327
2006: LD 2146; Lab 958; Con 679
2004: LD 2326, 2247, 2244; Con 881, 772, 699; Lab 867, 766, 675; Grn 472

The Lib Dem candidate is the former councillor elected in 2014 who failed to defend her seat last year. The LD elected in 2016 is former Bradford East MP David Ward.



BUCKINGHAMSHIRE CC; Totteridge & Bowerdean (East Wycombe Ind died)
Candidates:
HOLKHAM, Ben James (Liberal Democrat)
KNIGHT, Matt (East Wycombe Independent)
PETERS, Richard David (Conservative)
RASHID, Israr (Labour)

2017: East Wycombe Ind 930; Lab 588; Con 466; LD 344
2013: LD 953; Lab 671; Con 482; UKIP 354

The deceased East Wycombe Indy was the incumbent Lib Dem from 2013. He stood against the East Wycombe Independents in 2015 at district level in Bowerdean when the Lib Dems lost both seats in the ward to Labour. In the same elections, Labour lost both seats in Totteridge, one to the Tories and one to the East Wycombe Independents. The Lib Dems are running their candidate from 2017 for this division.



LAMBETH LBC; Thornton (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
AUDSLEY, Adrian John (Green)
DONNELLY, Stephen George (Labour)
FAZAL, Leila (Women’s Equality Party)
MACNAIR, Rebecca Susan (Liberal Democrat)
PLUME, John Kenneth (UKIP)
READ, Martin Lester (Conservative)

2018: Lab 2140, 1999, 1990; Con 545, 511, 489; Grn 388, 364, 292; LD 329, 328, 235
2014: Lab 2280, 2220, 2113; UKIP 764; Con 664, 570, 481; Grn 360, 336,272; LD 271, 258, 227
2010: Lab 2614, 2609, 2399; LD 1705, 1670, 1383; Con 1188, 1101, 1004; Grn 504, 373, 311
2006: Lab 1494, 1445, 1345; LD 1094, 946, 925; Con 480, 462, 457; Grn 470, 372, 363
2002: LD 1291, 1191, 1137; Lab 1142, 1080, 1057; Grn 277; Con 268, 257, 197

The Conservative was the top Conservative last May. The Lib Dem was the second Lib Dem in 2018, but the top one in 2014. The Green was the second Green last year, but the top Green in every other election since 2006.



TOWER HAMLETS LBC; Lansbury (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
AFRUZ, Mumshad (Conservative)
AHMED, Abul Monsur Ohid (Aspire)
AHMED, Rajib (Labour)
ASAD, Muhammad Abul (Liberal Democrat)
McGRENERA, Terence (The House Party – Homes for Londoners)
SHEA, Paul Michael (UKIP)
URPETH, John David (Green)

2018: Lab 2140, 1868, 1839; Aspire 1358, 980, 881; People’s Alliance of TH 646, 354, 337; LD 506, 427, 299; Con 398, 388, 247; Grn 377, 331; Ind 167
2014: Lab 2184, 1952, 1850; THF 1936, 1727, 1535; UKIP 732; Con 387, 332, 228; LD 232; TUSC 190


The Aspire candidate was their top placed candidate here last May, but was the incumbent councillor elected for Tower Hamlets First in 2014 and had been a Labour councillor for the predecessor ward since 2006 prior to that.
The Conservative was also the top Conservative in 2018 whilst the Green was the second placed Green.
The Labour candidate was elected top of the ballot in 2014, but didn’t defend the seat in 2018. He was first elected as a Lib Dem for the old East India and Lansbury ward in 2002, but had defected to Labour before 2010. The UKIP candidate also stood in 2014.



TOWER HAMLETS LBC; Shadwell (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
GOUS-MIAH, Kazi Mohammad (Independent)
KIELY, Tim (Green)
MIAH, Abjol (Liberal Democrat)
MIAH, Mohammad Harun (Aspire)
RAHMAN, Asik (Labour)
SCHERBATYKH, Elena (Women’s Equality Party)
STAFFORD, Daryl Martin (Conservative)

2018: People’s Alliance of TH 1565, 765; Lab 1270, 1157; Aspire 993, 439; Ind 244; Grn 201, 121; Con 179, 146; LD 165, 143
2014: THF 2199, 2192; Lab 1462, 892; Grn 354; Con 337, 326; LD 144; TUSC 141


The People’s alliance candidate elected in 2018 is now a Liberal Democrat. She was elected for Labour in 2010 and Tower Hamlets First in 2014.
The Independent is the same one as last year.
The Aspire candidate was their top placed candidate last year, and was elected for Respect in 2010 and Tower Hamlets First in 2014.
The Conservative was the second Conservative.
The Lib Dem was councillor on the old boundaries for Respect 2006-2010.



WOKINGHAM BC; Evendons (LD resigned)
Candidates
CLAWSON, Daniel (Conservative)
KERR, Sarah Louise (Liberal Democrat)
LLOYD, Tim (Labour)

2018: LD 1375; Con 1198; Lab 369
2016: Con 951; LD 839; Lab 294; No Desc 115
2015: Con 2588; LD 1044; Lab 553; UKIP 515; Grn 399
2014: Con 1227; LD 598; UKIP 437; Lab 292; Ind 71
2012: Con 967; LD 388; Lab 286; UKIP 278
2011: Con 1778; LD 703; Lab 413; UKIP 278
2010: Con 2537; LD 1679; Lab 393; UKIP 321
2008: Con 1456; LD 521; UKIP 203; Lab 128
2007: Con 1361; LD 576; UKIP 269; Lab 150
2006: Con 1397; LD 639; UKIP 197; Lab 144
2004: Con 1302, 1228, 1125; LD 1075, 954, 879; UKIP 353; Lab 257

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 23, 2019 21:45:05 GMT Tony Otim said:

BUCKINGHAMSHIRE CC; Totteridge & Bowerdean (East Wycombe Ind died)
Candidates:
HOLKHAM, Ben James (Liberal Democrat)
KNIGHT, Matt (East Wycombe Independent)
PETERS, Richard David (Conservative)
RASHID, Israr (Labour)

2017: East Wycombe Ind 930; Lab 588; Con 466; LD 344
2013: LD 953; Lab 671; Con 482; UKIP 354

The deceased East Wycombe Indy was the incumbent Lib Dem from 2013. He stood against the East Wycombe Independents in 2015 at district level in Bowerdean when the Lib Dems lost both seats in the ward to Labour. In the same elections, Labour lost both seats in Totteridge, one to the Tories and one to the East Wycombe Independents. The Lib Dems are running their candidate from 2017 for this division.

There's a bit more to it than this. He represented the predecessor division of Bowerdean Micklefield & Totteridge from 2005, originally elected as Labour but who defected to the Lib Dems with the other councillor (this was a 2 member division) Julie Wassell, retained the seat as a Lib Dem in 2009 and then was elected for this division in 2013.
Matt Knight (East Wycombe Independent) is a councillor for Micklefield ward (also originally a Lib Dem from 2011-14) which as the names imply is now outwith this division

[peter]

Regarding Lansbury, Rajib Ahmed was elected for the former East India Ward as a Labour candidate in 1998. In the reorganisation of boundaries prior to 2002 he missed out as a Labour candidate and was elected as a Liberal democrat, re-elected in as a Lib Dem in 2006 he rejoined Labour and won as a Labour candidate in 2010 and 2014. He missed out in the selection process last year to the now resigned councillor. Away from the internal politics of his local party he is a popular figure locally.

[peter]

I have to nominate a potential for the dodgy bar competition of 2019.Leaflet headed "It's Lib Dem or Labour in Shadwell on February 7" currently being circulated. Last year the Liberal Democrat candidate secured 4.3% of the vote. Even with a five times defector as candidate. I suspect exceeding Labour's 41% might be a long haul.

[Deleted]

Jan 31, 2019 0:16:55 GMT peter said:

I have to nominate a potential for the dodgy bar competition of 2019.Leaflet headed "It's Lib Dem or Labour in Shadwell on February 7" currently being circulated. Last year the Liberal Democrat candidate secured 4.3% of the vote. Even with a five times defector as candidate. I suspect exceeding Labour's 41% might be a long haul.

Have you got a photo of the offending leaflet?

[peter]

Oh yes. Will be posting when I can scan it

[southernliberal]

Jan 31, 2019 0:16:55 GMT peter said:

I have to nominate a potential for the dodgy bar competition of 2019.Leaflet headed "It's Lib Dem or Labour in Shadwell on February 7" currently being circulated. Last year the Liberal Democrat candidate secured 4.3% of the vote. Even with a five times defector as candidate. I suspect exceeding Labour's 41% might be a long haul.

The feelings on the ground (and the data) is it really is a two-horse race between us and Labour in Shadwell. While we didn't do well in the ward last year, having Rabina Khan come over to us (who represents this ward) has helped immensely and I'd be very surprised if we didn't come first or second. 

[AdminSTB]

Jan 31, 2019 22:19:01 GMT southernliberal said:

Jan 31, 2019 0:16:55 GMT peter said:

I have to nominate a potential for the dodgy bar competition of 2019.Leaflet headed "It's Lib Dem or Labour in Shadwell on February 7" currently being circulated. Last year the Liberal Democrat candidate secured 4.3% of the vote. Even with a five times defector as candidate. I suspect exceeding Labour's 41% might be a long haul.

The feelings on the ground (and the data) is it really is a two-horse race between us and Labour in Shadwell. While we didn't do well in the ward last year, having Rabina Khan come over to us (who represents this ward) has helped immensely and I'd be very surprised if we didn't come first or second. 

Welcome to the forum. I can display your username in Lib Dem colours if you so wish.

[southernliberal]

Jan 31, 2019 22:21:24 GMT AdminSTB said:

Jan 31, 2019 22:19:01 GMT southernliberal said:

The feelings on the ground (and the data) is it really is a two-horse race between us and Labour in Shadwell. While we didn't do well in the ward last year, having Rabina Khan come over to us (who represents this ward) has helped immensely and I'd be very surprised if we didn't come first or second. 

Welcome to the forum. I can display your username in Lib Dem colours if you so wish.

Yes please! Nice to be joining the forum right before two potential pickups (Bradford, Shadwell)

[peter]

Abjol Miah, who is the Liberal Democrat candidate for Shadwell has an interesting, even for Tower Hamlets, political history. He became extremely close to George Galloway in 2004 and was a key player in the Respect victory in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005. He can be seen with George Galloway at a number of events and Mr Galloway praised him to the hilt in comments made after the count. In 2006 he contested Shadwell for Respect ward helping to unseat Professor Michael Keith, Labour leader of the council and the deputy leader of the council. At the count Mr G kissed his feet in celebration. He became leader of the 12 strong Respect group of councillors which started to fall apart quickly. Labour, in a disastrous move, admitted several of them who immediately voted to make Lutfur Rahman council leader. In 2010 Abjol was Mr Galloway's chosen successor as Respect candidate for Bethnal Green and Bow, which he lost. In 2012 he had become associated with Lutfur Rahman and contested a by election for Weavers Ward, narrowly losing as a Rahman supported Independent. In 2014 he stood for the Rahman Tower Hamlets First Party in St Peter's ward, and was elected. As Rahman only had control of the Cabinet he was unable to promote Abjol to any position within the council. Shortly after the disqualification of Rahman and the dissolution of Tower Hamlets First, their councillors became Independents (this is Tower Hamlets)Abjol sat as an Independent, Independent of the Independents. He did seek to join the Labour Party and tweeted a membership card. Labour decided otherwise and so in 2018 he contested St Peters ward as an PATH candidate and lost. He is now a Liberal Democrat. In May last year Rabina Khan polled 800 more votes in Shadwell than the other PATH candidate, who was 230 votes behind former councillor Harun Miah who was standing for ASPIRE, having previously been elected for Tower Hamlets First and Respect (twice.) This is Tower Hamlets.Harun Miah is standing again in this by election. It should not be forgotten that he was first elected at a by election in 2007. Looking at Abjol's electoral record, let alone the policy statements on numerous leaflets and the connection to both Lutfur Rahman and Mr Galloway, I am surprised that Sir Vince, Tom Brake MP and the Liberal Democrat candidate for Mayor of London are quite so enthusiastic to endorse him as a Liberal Democrat candidate.

[peter]

The Shadwell by election has got even more interesting for the Labour Party. The Labour candidate fought off a challenge from Momentum at the selection meeting. He seems to have form with councillors who are connected to Momentum.

lovewapping.org/2019/02/labour-candidate-asik-rahmans-attempt-to-stitch-up-labour-councillor-haque/

[Davıd Boothroyd]

When you win a lot of events at the Olympics, what is it that you might be said to get?

[peter]

The Liberal Democrats are also claiming that the contest in Lansbury is between them and Labour. Will be posting both leaflets shortly.

Their initial Lansbury leaflet was printed almost entirely in red and said that Lansbury deserved better, it made great play on the circumstances of the by election and then in one small section, in yellow, introduced the Liberal Democrat candidate; Abdul Asad.

Abdul Asad was first elected a Labour councillor in 1990 for the former St Katharine's ward, transferring to Whitechapel. He was regarded as something of a dealmaker and hovered on the fringes of the Labour group. His support for Lutfur Rahman in the leadership election of 2008 saw his advancement. Re-elected as a Labour councillor in 2010 he quickly left Labour to support Lutfur Rahman and became a member of his Cabinet.

In 2014 he was elected as a Tower,tfur Rahman refused to engage with non supporters and declined to answer questions at council meetings and, during his entire period as Mayor attended Overview and Scrutiny on just two occasions. Although he did not delegate any authority to Cabinet members he referred questions to them at meetings and they did attend Overview and Scrutiny. Abdul Asad was one of the weakest performers in his team. At O&S he would simply introduce officers and expect them to answer all questions.

He appeared to have some influence behind the scenes. During the election petition he was an extremely poor witness, blustering when faced with questions. In paragraph 500 of the Judgement Commissioner Mawrey says this of him:

"It follows that the court is satisfied that the conduct of Mr Rahman and his agents Mr Asad and Mr Choudhury in making grants does amount to the corrupt practice of bribery under s 113 of the 1983 Act."

It is somewhat strange to base a by election campaign on the perceived deficiencies of a councillor, with that description of a candidate claiming Lansbury deserves better. Not least as it was said in open court and enshrined in the judgement.

One of the Liberal Democrat candidates for Lansbury ward in 2018 has left the party in disgust and it is of interest to know if Sir Vince, Tom Brake MP and the Liberal Democrat London Mayoral candidate actually believe that Lansbury ward will be better served by this candidate.

The Liberal Democrat London Mayoral candidate made an unfortunate joke at a meeting in support of Abdul Asad saying that she had been to the Borough so often it felt like her second home. With the history of elections in the borough, rather too many have treated the Borough as a second home for electoral purposes.

[Devil Wincarnate]

A quick Google of Abjol Miah turns up him apologising for something on Twitter.

A further search finds Guido. And this:
order-order.com/2019/02/04/lib-dem-candidate-tower-hamlets-fan-kkks-david-duke/

[peter]

The third person in the picture with Sir Vince is Abdul Asad. It would be interesting to know what drew one time ardent supporters of George Galloway to the Liberal Democrats?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

You do know his name is actually Abul Asad?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Who could ever have predicted this might happen.

[mboy]

Sigh...

[Chris from Brum]

Feb 5, 2019 9:20:57 GMT mboy said:

Sigh...

One does wish that a bit of due diligence was carried out on joiners from, well, any organisation with a present or past connection with Gorgeous George.

[finsobruce]

Feb 5, 2019 9:38:31 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Feb 5, 2019 9:20:57 GMT mboy said:

Sigh...

One does wish that a bit of due diligence was carried out on joiners from, well, any organisation with a present or past connection with Gorgeous George.

As Peter has already pointed out he is a well known figure in Tower Hamlets politics and given the merry go round of defections and associated baggage, this was entirely predictable.

I also have just noticed that Terry McGrenera is standing which should make things even more lively. I'm pretty certain he was a Lib Dem (among other things) in the semi distant past.