Peterborough

[casualobserver]

Dec 24, 2018 17:56:18 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Here is a real quote from a Labour MP:

‘I want to highlight something that I hope the Minister will cover. The lower the category, the lower the sentence, with little in the way of repercussions. That makes the crime even more attractive because it is low risk and high reward, so that needs to be borne in mind when looking at sentencing.’

I fear that not everyone will know the source of that quote:
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/fiona-onasanya-gets-tough-on-crime/

[finsobruce]

Dec 25, 2018 14:09:43 GMT casualobserver said:

Dec 24, 2018 17:56:18 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Here is a real quote from a Labour MP:

‘I want to highlight something that I hope the Minister will cover. The lower the category, the lower the sentence, with little in the way of repercussions. That makes the crime even more attractive because it is low risk and high reward, so that needs to be borne in mind when looking at sentencing.’

I fear that not everyone will know the source of that quote:
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/fiona-onasanya-gets-tough-on-crime/

Funnily enough, I had guessed. 

[kitesurfer]

It’s hard to see anything other than a comfortable Labour hold in a by-election here.

It is exceptionally rare for a party of government to gain seats off the opposition in a by-election. Copeland was a very famous exception and it was a consequence of the Tories being well over 20 points (I think?) ahead in the polls at the time.

If the current polls are to believed, there has been a net swing to Labour since the election.

Labour will exploit this result and say that this shows that people back their ‘jobs first Brexit’ and that the voters have rejected ‘the shambles inflicted by the government’ and that a ‘general election is more necessary than ever’.

The Tories need to manage expectations carefully.

[Deleted]

Dec 25, 2018 23:30:53 GMT kitesurfer said:

It’s hard to see anything other than a comfortable Labour hold in a by-election here.

It is exceptionally rare for a party of government to gain seats off the opposition in a by-election. Copeland was a very famous exception and it was a consequence of the Tories being well over 20 points (I think?) ahead in the polls at the time.

If the current polls are to believed, there has been a net swing to Labour since the election.

Labour will exploit this result and say that this shows that people back their ‘jobs first Brexit’ and that the voters have rejected ‘the shambles inflicted by the government’ and that a ‘general election is more necessary than ever’.

The Tories need to manage expectations carefully.

Yes this is true. While Copeland is a recent exception and perhaps less marginal it was at a time when polling wise things could not get worse for Labour.

Interestingly had this been a 100 maj marginal in Scotland, Wales or London the Tories might be in with a better shot since polling in those regions have shown a swing to the Tories.

[Deleted]

Dec 25, 2018 23:37:48 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Dec 25, 2018 23:30:53 GMT kitesurfer said:

It’s hard to see anything other than a comfortable Labour hold in a by-election here.

It is exceptionally rare for a party of government to gain seats off the opposition in a by-election. Copeland was a very famous exception and it was a consequence of the Tories being well over 20 points (I think?) ahead in the polls at the time.

If the current polls are to believed, there has been a net swing to Labour since the election.

Labour will exploit this result and say that this shows that people back their ‘jobs first Brexit’ and that the voters have rejected ‘the shambles inflicted by the government’ and that a ‘general election is more necessary than ever’.

The Tories need to manage expectations carefully.

Yes this is true. While Copeland is a recent exception and perhaps less marginal it was at a time when polling wise things could not get worse for Labour.

Interestingly had this been a 100 maj marginal in Scotland, Wales or London the Tories might be in with a better shot since polling in those regions have shown a swing to the Tories.

Worsening for the Tories here. A by-election in Argyll or Ashfield would be different.

[The Bishop]

Copeland was also partly down to an overriding local issue.

Though given the circumstances of any byelection here, and the previous incumbents negative personal vote disappearing, its not as hopeless for the Tories as all that?

[Deleted]

Dec 26, 2018 11:01:45 GMT The Bishop said:

Copeland was also partly down to an overriding local issue.

Though given the circumstances of any byelection here, and the previous incumbents negative personal vote disappearing, its not as hopeless for the Tories as all that?

As much as I would love to believe we’re in with a chance here, I suspect we will be thumped. A government in as sorry a state as the current one would struggle to hold a very safe seat (I’m thinking Christchurch), let alone gain one. 

[theprole]

To what extent does the cause of an by-election impact on its results?

I.e. does the by-election to replace a well respected incumbent who died in office tend to boost the vote of the incumbent's party, and (possibly more relevantly) does a by-election caused by an MP being jailed as a lying scumbag results in a decrease in vote for their replacement's party?

[The Bishop]

Dec 26, 2018 11:12:09 GMT Sandy said:

Dec 26, 2018 11:01:45 GMT The Bishop said:

Copeland was also partly down to an overriding local issue.

Though given the circumstances of any byelection here, and the previous incumbents negative personal vote disappearing, its not as hopeless for the Tories as all that?

As much as I would love to believe we’re in with a chance here, I suspect we will be thumped. A government in as sorry a state as the current one would struggle to hold a very safe seat (I’m thinking Christchurch), let alone gain one. 

The way this byelection has come about might at least enable you to remain competitive I would have thought.

[The Bishop]

Dec 26, 2018 12:34:56 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 26, 2018 11:12:09 GMT Sandy said:

As much as I would love to believe we’re in with a chance here, I suspect we will be thumped. A government in as sorry a state as the current one would struggle to hold a very safe seat (I’m thinking Christchurch), let alone gain one. 

Why?
Labour have put up a marked black in the cause of the by-election.
People here keep telling me Jackson was dire and unpopular and his negative effect disappears.
Then it is all down to who and how many stand. The more the better for the Conservatives.
Are the demographics starting to change there? More owner occupier commuters?

I think the quality and nature of the campaign and candidates will have a significant effect. Down to differential TO. Not a lost cause there.

Depends who they are, a UKIP candidate this time likely wouldn't help the Tories other things being equal?

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 26, 2018 12:17:54 GMT theprole said:

To what extent does the cause of an by-election impact on its results?

I.e. does the by-election to replace a well respected incumbent who died in office tend to boost the vote of the incumbent's party, and (possibly more relevantly) does a by-election caused by an MP being jailed as a lying scumbag results in a decrease in vote for their replacement's party?

Going back some years the Ashfield/Grimsby byelections suggest so.

The vacancy caused by death was retained; the vacancy caused by resignation to take a job in Brussels was lost.

[Adam in Stroud]

Dec 26, 2018 12:34:56 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 26, 2018 11:12:09 GMT Sandy said:

As much as I would love to believe we’re in with a chance here, I suspect we will be thumped. A government in as sorry a state as the current one would struggle to hold a very safe seat (I’m thinking Christchurch), let alone gain one. 

Why?
Labour have put up a marked black in the cause of the by-election.
People here keep telling me Jackson was dire and unpopular and his negative effect disappears.
Then it is all down to who and how many stand. The more the better for the Conservatives.
Are the demographics starting to change there? More owner occupier commuters?

I think the quality and nature of the campaign and candidates will have a significant effect. Down to differential TO. Not a lost cause there.

Yes.

This is a marginal constituency, quite bellwether-ish, and the Lab cause has been given a kick in the balls by the reason for the election. I don't see strong national reasons for a swing between Lab/Con either way and I can't imagine third party challenge from anyone here. I don't see why either Lab or Con would feel this is out heir reach, I'd have thought a lot would ride on the campaign and quality of candidate.

On number of candidates, I see there was a (Radford-ite) Liberal in 2015 but not in 2017. A UKIP candidate might upset things a bit though; you'd think in Lab's favour but of course Jackson won when UKIP stood and lost when they didn't.

[finsobruce]

Dec 26, 2018 12:49:52 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Dec 26, 2018 12:17:54 GMT theprole said:

To what extent does the cause of an by-election impact on its results?

I.e. does the by-election to replace a well respected incumbent who died in office tend to boost the vote of the incumbent's party, and (possibly more relevantly) does a by-election caused by an MP being jailed as a lying scumbag results in a decrease in vote for their replacement's party?

Going back some years the Ashfield/Grimsby byelections suggest so.

The vacancy caused by death was retained; the vacancy caused by resignation to take a job in Brussels was lost.

There is always more than one factor IMHO. As Grimsby was much more marginal much more Labour campaigning was done there than in Ashfield. Austin Mitchell was a very good candidate in Grimsby. 

To illustrate how long ago this was the SWP stood in Ashfield and the Liberal candidate was the wonderfully named Hampton Flint. The National Front were represented by a Mr Herod, sorry Herrod. 

[Deleted]

Name like that would motivate me to Flin the ballot paper.

[Deleted]

Dec 26, 2018 12:34:56 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 26, 2018 11:12:09 GMT Sandy said:

As much as I would love to believe we’re in with a chance here, I suspect we will be thumped. A government in as sorry a state as the current one would struggle to hold a very safe seat (I’m thinking Christchurch), let alone gain one. 

Why?
Labour have put up a marked black in the cause of the by-election.
People here keep telling me Jackson was dire and unpopular and his negative effect disappears.
Then it is all down to who and how many stand. The more the better for the Conservatives.
Are the demographics starting to change there? More owner occupier commuters?

I think the quality and nature of the campaign and candidates will have a significant effect. Down to differential TO. Not a lost cause there.

I do of course hope you are right, I am managing my expectations though.

[heslingtonian]

Dec 26, 2018 12:49:52 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Dec 26, 2018 12:17:54 GMT theprole said:

To what extent does the cause of an by-election impact on its results?

I.e. does the by-election to replace a well respected incumbent who died in office tend to boost the vote of the incumbent's party, and (possibly more relevantly) does a by-election caused by an MP being jailed as a lying scumbag results in a decrease in vote for their replacement's party?

Going back some years the Ashfield/Grimsby byelections suggest so.

The vacancy caused by death was retained; the vacancy caused by resignation to take a job in Brussels was lost.

Yes, but there’s also the Ryedale/Derbyshire West example from 1986 which suggests the opposite.

[Deleted]

Birmingham, Stechford 1977 - massive swing.

[Deleted]

Dec 26, 2018 12:49:52 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Dec 26, 2018 12:17:54 GMT theprole said:

To what extent does the cause of an by-election impact on its results?

I.e. does the by-election to replace a well respected incumbent who died in office tend to boost the vote of the incumbent's party, and (possibly more relevantly) does a by-election caused by an MP being jailed as a lying scumbag results in a decrease in vote for their replacement's party?

Going back some years the Ashfield/Grimsby byelections suggest so.

The vacancy caused by death was retained; the vacancy caused by resignation to take a job in Brussels was lost.

Birmingham, Stechford - huge swing.

[Deleted]

Dec 26, 2018 18:59:11 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Birmingham, Stechford 1977 - massive swing.

causing unnecessary by election by buggering off to Europe and a diminished local party

[Deleted]

Dec 26, 2018 20:22:00 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Dec 26, 2018 18:59:11 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Birmingham, Stechford 1977 - massive swing.

causing unnecessary by election by buggering off to Europe and a diminished local party

Europe causing another unnecessary vote!