Defections - rumoured and ramped

[The Bishop]

Yeah whatever, JL. You know perfectly well what "anti-European" is shorthand for in this context

[No Offence Alan]

I don't think we'll see any MP defections until the new boundaries come into effect (or not).

[Deleted]

Welcome back Alan

Kris can sort that Non-Aligned out for you

[historian1986]

If there are any defections to UKIP then I think they could be the day after the local election results to gain maximum impact.

[Deleted]

Apr 18, 2012 16:32:46 GMT historian1986 said:

If there are any defections to UKIP then I think they could be the day after the local election results to gain maximum impact.

Was it Purnell who resigned as the Polls closed ?

surely the biggest impact is the day before voting ?

[iainbhx]

Apr 18, 2012 17:13:50 GMT @ianrobo said:

Apr 18, 2012 16:32:46 GMT historian1986 said:

If there are any defections to UKIP then I think they could be the day after the local election results to gain maximum impact.

Was it Purnell who resigned as the Polls closed ?

surely the biggest impact is the day before voting ?

Yes, but this is the UKIP leadership, so to the chagrin of their footsoldiers, they are bound to screw it up.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Apr 18, 2012 17:13:50 GMT @ianrobo said:

Apr 18, 2012 16:32:46 GMT historian1986 said:

If there are any defections to UKIP then I think they could be the day after the local election results to gain maximum impact.

Was it Purnell who resigned as the Polls closed ?

surely the biggest impact is the day before voting ?

It depends who you're trying to appeal to. The attempt to overthrow Brown in June 2009 was holed below the water before it began, because they needed the support of MPs and the tacit consent of activists.

Blears resigning the day before the elections meant that activists were pissed off as hell, because a bunch of bitter never-beens had just decided to put another nail into the burning coffin that was our European elections campaign. As a result, anybody being seen to line up with her was laying themselves open to some pretty vicious savaging from a portion of their activist base, which is not what any MP wants when they need to start preparing in earnest for a general election.

And if UKIP are going to make an impact, they need experienced activists a lot more than they need elderly backbench MPs. I'd suggest a defection designed to damage the Tories in council elections would not be favourably received by the activist base, particularly those Eurosceptic councillors who might be defeated because of such a defection.

Were a defection to happen - and I remain sceptical that it will - the most likely time would be the day after the locals.

[richardclemerson]

Good post EAL, makes a great deal of sense. I share your scepticism regarding any potential defections in the near future.

[toryjim]

I remember when Crispin Blunt resigned just as the Conservatives made hundreds of gains in locals. It looked a little silly at the time, of course subsequent events gave it a presience it lacked at the time.

[Deleted]

Apr 18, 2012 20:08:25 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Is 'Labour Uncut' the anti-semitic element of the Labour Party?

what they said now

[East Anglian Lefty]

Apr 18, 2012 20:08:25 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Is 'Labour Uncut' the anti-semitic element of the Labour Party?

I wouldn't know about that, but they do talk an awful lot of bollocks.

[Deleted]

tory PPC has defected to UKIP in Barrow and predicts a 'flood' of defections after the elections

blogs.journallive.co.uk/journalblogcentral/2012/04/tory-defection-to-ukip.html

[The Bishop]

Now *that* is slightly surprising - he never really came across as a headbanger

(though shouldn't this be in the *actual* defections thread??)

[Deleted]

Apr 22, 2012 21:31:46 GMT The Bishop said:

Now *that* is slightly surprising - he never really came across as a headbanger

(though shouldn't this be in the *actual* defections thread??)

hmmm well he also predicted loads so fits in here and not an elected rep

[Deleted]

dorries, today and due to lose her seat is looking increasing likely to defect ?

[timrollpickering]

Apr 23, 2012 18:05:31 GMT @ianrobo said:

dorries, today and due to lose her seat is looking increasing likely to defect ?

There's an awful long queue of Conservatives willing to fill out the membership form and give her the fee.

[erlend]

Apr 23, 2012 18:11:40 GMT timrollpickering said:

Apr 23, 2012 18:05:31 GMT @ianrobo said:

dorries, today and due to lose her seat is looking increasing likely to defect ?

There's an awful long queue of Conservatives willing to fill out the membership form and give her the fee.

Exalt.

[Deleted]

Apr 23, 2012 18:11:40 GMT timrollpickering said:

Apr 23, 2012 18:05:31 GMT @ianrobo said:

dorries, today and due to lose her seat is looking increasing likely to defect ?

There's an awful long queue of Conservatives willing to fill out the membership form and give her the fee.

With Cameron at the top of that list, she totally ruined the relaunch

[linders]

I think that in the medium term Dorries has done Cameron a favour. She's gone so far across the line that even the most usual of suspects wouldn't follow her lead.

As for John Gough, he had a huge amount of help and funding in 2010, a stack of frontbench visits and no incumbent to fight, and he managed a swing of 0.4%... no great loss.

[The Bishop]

Seriously, though, that also had a great deal to do with the excellence of the Labour candidate

I do think that I recall saying in the old place, though, that there was surprisingly little evidence of a Tory campaign on the ground. How much that was to do with the candidate is of course impossible to say with certainty, but I agree it is unlikely to reflect well on him.