Defections - rumoured and ramped

[Deleted]

I agree with Anthony Wells on this, if there are look out for MP's where boundaries change.

I offer Richard Shepherd. Rumours is locally he was offered a gong to step down in 2010 and refused. He loses (under current plans) his strong hold of streetly to marginal Walsall South and is very very angry at the govt for this. Yes the new Aldridge seat is Tory leaning but contaisn part of Inner wards Walsall Shepherd could not bare to have, he barely steps into Brownhills.

His position on the Euro, small govt etc would fit in well with UKIP .

[thirdchill]

I think tory/lib dem defections are more likely than labour ones at present.

Despite being ineffective at times, labour are reasonably united (having learnt lessons from the last time they were in opposition and not wanting to repeat it).

Tory defections might be more likely from those who are not standing again in 2015. Some right wingers might defect but many of them are quite loyal to their local parties. Those standing in 2015 might well find it is too much of a risk to defect.

I don't think too many lib dems are likely to defect from now. If there had been defections, most would have been done in the first 2 years of the coalition government. A number might not want to stand again as MP's however.

[Deleted]

Shipley

[toryjim]

Apr 12, 2012 12:26:06 GMT thirdchill said:

Despite being ineffective at times, labour are reasonably united (having learnt lessons from the last time they were in opposition and not wanting to repeat it).

I think their unity is surface deep only.

[Deleted]

Apr 13, 2012 11:45:08 GMT toryjim said:

Apr 12, 2012 12:26:06 GMT thirdchill said:

Despite being ineffective at times, labour are reasonably united (having learnt lessons from the last time they were in opposition and not wanting to repeat it).

I think their unity is surface deep only.

Really ?

Is that hope rather than the reality of it or based on Hodges's whisperings from unnamed people ?

Would be funs to see a Cash or Davies switch sides, sit with the opposition (who next to ?) and then just go on about Europe at every opportunity.

[The Bishop]

Which is quite enough much of the time, toryjim - as your lot have demonstrated

[The Bishop]

Yes, non-Labour people do need to realise that the Hodges/Labour Uncut tendency speak for very few in the party outside their own distinctly limited circle.

And that is a genuinely serious comment, not spin in any way

[Deleted]

Apr 13, 2012 12:07:33 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, non-Labour people do need to realise that the Hodges/Labour Uncut tendency speak for very few in the party outside their own distinctly limited circle.

And that is a genuinely serious comment, not spin in any way

It is Bish because any of us who go to CLP and other meeting know that when we discuss policy there is little in difference between us.

[toryjim]

I don't need to be told by Hodges or anyone that there are simmering tensions throughout Labour. It's clear that the poll rating is preventing them from analysing their problems properly! I know Labour think its all going swimmingly but so did my party before 2001 etc

[Deleted]

Did they, you still had open warefare over Europe. In any party there is a certain amount of tension, did you watch Newsnight last night about the issues between No 10 and 11 ? However unless you have a rampant mind like Hodges, Rentoul etc. then the relationships I have been told are fairly good at the top table of the shad cab.

[The Bishop]

You are wrong there, toryjim. Very few people think everything is going "swimmingly". They do also mostly recognise, however, that things are a lot better than they could have been - given the last GE result and indeed how NL lost its way in many respects in its later years.......

The comparison with post-1979 is quite telling.

[toryjim]

I don't think you are where you need to be, you're too much in a comfort zone.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Apr 13, 2012 12:07:33 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, non-Labour people do need to realise that the Hodges/Labour Uncut tendency speak for very few in the party outside their own distinctly limited circle.

I'm not sure they even speak for the ultra-Blairites in general. That's a pretty small group, but Labour Uncut really only speaks for the metropolitan element of that. The rest of them may grumble, but they don't share the bizarre fascination with trying to start personal spats that that blog has.

[Pete Whitehead]

Theres an amusing spat going on on Twitter at the moment between Dan Hodges and Luke Akehurst

[Deleted]

I may disagree with Luke's side of politics and espeically being a lobbyist for a very pro and right wing Israel group but he is a loyal labour man to his core. I think that winds up the likes of Hodges who want him to be the magpie in the camp, the one to de throne Ed, they misread Luke a lot and I will vote for him.

[The Bishop]

Luke Akehurst is fundamentally a sound bloke with good instincts. He has, in recent days on Twitter, lambasted BOTH the likes of Hodges who are desperate for Ken to lose and for EM to fail - and those supposedly "Labour" people who have crowed over GG's victory (as some sort of great "triumph" for the left) and lavished praise on Yaqoob. In both cases, utterly correctly.......

Would that there were (even) more like him

[Deleted]

I think he has this one blind spot but Bish you are fundamentalty right. However notice how much Salma has been trousering up to certain Labour figures. In our party we have room for both Luke and Salma if they understand not all the times they can get their way.

[Pete Whitehead]

Well even I'm a bit of a fan of Luke Akehurst so you can't be using that as proof of Labour unity (I still like Dan Hodges more though )

[Deleted]

It is fascinating watching members of the Labour Party come out into the light like moles or abducted ex-wives from basements, realising that the old Blairite regime ("CONFORM OR DIE") has been replaced with something more consensual and forgiving.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Apr 13, 2012 15:22:53 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

It is fascinating watching members of the Labour Party come out into the light like moles or abducted ex-wives from basements, realising that the old Blairite regime ("CONFORM OR DIE") has been replaced with something more consensual and forgiving.

It's fascinating that people ever believed that caricature. The idea that you could impose uniformity on the Labour Party is risible to anybody able to put away blind hatred for long enough to look at its component parts.

I'm quite keen on Luke Akehurst, but with a couple of important caveats. He's better than most of London Labour in terms of realising that the rest of Britain is different, but still doesn't quite understand the south beyond the usual caricature, he will go on about factional fights that really didn't have that much significance even when they happened at great length and he does sometimes substitute indignation about internal opposition for trying to understand why it's happening and what that means.

I didn't vote for him for the NEC last time, because I was worried he'd use it as a platform to pick pointless fights with the likes of Compass (not that Compass doesn't deserve a more than occasional kicking, but I don't think that's useful and it's certainly not what the NEC is for). That hasn't happened, and I'll certainly be voting to re-elect him.