The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 14, 2012 9:14:36 GMT
Noone wants to be another James Purnell!!! Ah, but that is slightly different if you believe the widely rumoured account....... Which is that others (including a certain wannabe leader) *did* promise to follow him - but, when it came to the crunch, got cold feet  |
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Post by erlend on Apr 14, 2012 9:37:16 GMT
I will stick to my principle that defectors should not be expected to resign. It gives too much power to party management/whips.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 14, 2012 9:45:19 GMT
I will stick to my principle that defectors should not be expected to resign. It gives too much power to party management/whips. I agree. If you read the various memoirs of the 1992-97 Parliament, you find that people managing the attempted big name defections were desperate that news not get out, because doing so would panic the would-be defectee and ensure that they were forced to give declarations of loyalty and stay within their party. Paddy Ashdown's diaries about Emma Nicholson and Peter Thurnham, and Alistair Campbell's diary about Alan Howarth show very similar cautious processes. For this reason I suspect UKIP are in fact just ramping; it would be an odd career move at this stage for a Conservative MP to defect to UKIP. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2012 10:34:21 GMT
I agree. If you read the various memoirs of the 1992-97 Parliament, you find that people managing the attempted big name defections were desperate that news not get out, because doing so would panic the would-be defectee and ensure that they were forced to give declarations of loyalty and stay within their party. Paddy Ashdown's diaries about Emma Nicholson and Peter Thurnham, and Alistair Campbell's diary about Alan Howarth show very similar cautious processes. For this reason I suspect UKIP are in fact just ramping; it would be an odd career move at this stage for a Conservative MP to defect to UKIP. Of course, some may be ramping to ensure that very effect... One has to wonder just what could be acheieved with 20-30 Defections... Would the new UKIP group be part of the govt? That would make the jump pointless without getting a major concession on the EU. It would also mean tat UKIP got all the hatred currently aimed at the other Govt parties - and probably save the Lib dem bacon... The defectors would have difficulty at the next election under these circumstances. or 2 - The UKIP group are not officially part of the coalition but allow the Coalition to carry on as usual voting as they chose. Obviously the higher the UKIP number the more important this has and could lead to 3... 3 - the coalition becomes unstable, Cameron has the exscuse to call an election under the torturous route available to him. I understand this final option is the gamble being thought about... I am not sure how it could bring an EU exit closer however... Well there won't be an EU exit so let's deflate that balloon. Cameron may well decide that the Coalition can be, until 2015, Con, LD and UKIP. Fine, that'll be awkward around the Cabinet table but I've had worse family gatherings so maybe it'll work. What I know UKIP *want* to happen is: "Oh, fine, we'll concede more and get a ruddy referendum on EU entry" What I know UKIP will actually get is: "Hi, I'm Nigel Farage and as an unelected leader of a parliamentary grouping, I have the freedom to walk into this television studio here and....OOPS! All my clothes have fallen off and my the sky's fallen in" If this is going happen - [sigh] - then at most maybe a couple of old boys on the fringes will shuffle over for back-pats and new ties. I cannot imagine for one moment that anyone with brains is considering a career trajectory which might conclude with an early election and Ed Miliband knocking on the door of number 10 with an iPad and a packet of Cheerios. The Tory backbenchers might hate Cameron but they're not hungry to split the party a la Major's Walking Dead Years. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2012 15:39:54 GMT
It's unfortunate for UKIP that the EU elections are in 2014. Had they been the 2016 I'm sure they could have been used for any MPs that defected to be compensated if (when) they fail to win their constituency for UKIP. As it is does UKIP really have the activist base in their seats to keep potential defectors in?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 14, 2012 17:39:38 GMT
It would really take a sizeable number of defections to make the coalition untenable - over 20 at the very least, I would have thought. Less than that and the net effect will be to strengthen the Lib Dem influence and weaken that of the Tory right, which would be a massive own goal for those defecting I would have thought. Would any of them have a sufficient personal vote to hold on in 2015?
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Post by historian1986 on Apr 14, 2012 20:40:30 GMT
Let me play devil's advocate for a moment. If I was David Cameron right now, I would actively encourage MP's from the 'Right' of the Conservatives to defect to UKIP. Why? Because this would give him further opportunity to detoxify the brand and make the party more Cameroon and liberal, thus pleasing the LibDems. In the event, I don't think a single sitting Conservative MP would defect to UKIP (though a couple could stand as Independents) as (1) UKIP is seen by many as a single issue party and (2) the 'Right' of the party would try to influence ideology from inside the party and would attempt to oust David Cameron sometime in the future, possibly 2015 and takeover the party themselves.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 15, 2012 7:29:57 GMT
I will admit that the following is in the context of parliamentary defections, but has a defection ever been announced in an unusual place?
I remember the defections of Emma Nicholson (Devon West) and Alan Howarth (Stratford) being reported on the BBC News (presumably because they were MP's) and in this day and age of the internet and social media I dare say that a defection has been announced via Facebook and Twitter, but has a defection been published in somewhere odd (for instance in a local newspaper or a Christmas card to the local electorate)?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2012 7:55:34 GMT
Let me play devil's advocate for a moment. If I was David Cameron right now, I would actively encourage MP's from the 'Right' of the Conservatives to defect to UKIP. Why? Because this would give him further opportunity to detoxify the brand and make the party more Cameroon and liberal, thus pleasing the LibDems. In the event, I don't think a single sitting Conservative MP would defect to UKIP (though a couple could stand as Independents) as (1) UKIP is seen by many as a single issue party and (2) the 'Right' of the party would try to influence ideology from inside the party and would attempt to oust David Cameron sometime in the future, possibly 2015 and takeover the party themselves. It depends on "who" and "how many". If it's enough of the 'old boys'. or even just one of them, he can carry on pretty much as is. It would only damage him if/when MPs who were supposed to be part of the detoxification process actually jump too. He needs the old guard to do his work for him, really, but not in too great a number. The Sunday papers don't seem to be full of hints and allegations, which is usually the first sign of impending news. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2012 8:13:09 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2012 10:49:11 GMT
Farage reporting several Tory MPs have contacted him to discuss defecting... If a group crosses at once it will make them feel safer... and could cause a political earthquake... sounds like bluster to me and does anyone think Cameron would be too bothered if it is in any way true ? This sounds like a realignment of the centre right to me and no need for LD's to be smug about this at all |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2012 11:02:02 GMT
Farage reporting several Tory MPs have contacted him to discuss defecting... If a group crosses at once it will make them feel safer... and could cause a political earthquake... sounds like bluster to me and does anyone think Cameron would be too bothered if it is in any way true ? This sounds like a realignment of the centre right to me and no need for LD's to be smug about this at all As I've said, I think Cameron won't mind if it's the 'old boys' going across, because "Anti-EU backbencher joins Anti-EU Party" isn't news. It's the "how many" and the "how they do it" which counts. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2012 11:21:49 GMT
thing is Dok would he care if any of the radical 2010 intake ?
lets face it the likes of clegg could be in the same party as Cameron if you take away their extreme RW anti EU people
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2012 11:26:53 GMT
thing is Dok would he care if any of the radical 2010 intake ? lets face it the likes of clegg could be in the same party as Cameron if you take away their extreme RW anti EU people I think he would. The detoxification was supposed to stop all this, and the influx of more traditional Tories has upset the project a little. It would matter if a bright young thing were to go, because he wouldn't be able to paint it as "the usual suspects" having a strop. Your second statement is....not really that relevant.....and in any case you've fallen over yourself. Clegg could never be in the same party as Cameron, full stop. That fact you've had to say "if you take out this lot, and this other lot" proves that. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2012 11:34:14 GMT
I am saying if any of this is true then the tories get weakened on one flank but strengthened on another.
Speaking to Darren on twitter and he has it spot on, there is now this extreme version of toryism that has been took in with the new intake and the public would not vote it in.
Cameron knew this of course and has done all he can to piss of the likes of Dorries and very successfully. Have to say there is a string of more radical religious beliefs there and there are modelling on the tea PArty.
For which this country has no appetitite
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 15, 2012 17:07:17 GMT
Your second statement is....not really that relevant.....and in any case you've fallen over yourself. Clegg could never be in the same party as Cameron, full stop. Why exactly could two socially liberal, fiscally conservative politicians with a good working relationship not be in the same party? I can't see Cameron as a Lib Dem, and Clegg will always define as a Lib Dem even in the unlikely event of your party repeating its 1930s trajectory, but the fact that they can't be together in a party that currently exists doesn't mean that they couldn't be in the same party if a suitable party existed. Their political prescriptions, after all, do seem to be in relative homogeneity with each other. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2012 17:11:53 GMT
I'll amend that to "of the current parties".
But there's too many points of division for that to ever happen. I remember Cameron saying that when Clegg explained his personal opinion of Europe and European policy, Cameron had to "have a long sit down" ;D
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 15, 2012 17:20:14 GMT
I don't see why that's an issue. There are Euro-sceptic Lib Dems, and on social policy the party seems to have managed fine despite including people like David Alton and people like Evan Harris.
If the general tenor of their views is in order, there's no reason people who disagree forcefully can't both be part of the same party. And though Clegg and Cameron's disagreements are real, I don't think you could call them forceful.
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 15, 2012 18:09:44 GMT
I don't see why that's an issue. There are Euro-sceptic Lib Dems, and on social policy the party seems to have managed fine despite including people like David Alton and people like Evan Harris. Although the way Alton left the party suggests that perhaps it doesn't manage to so fine. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2012 18:43:21 GMT
If Richard Allen and I can not only sit comfortably, but actually on the same side of the table on occasion, within one party, then it shouldn't be too hard for two feckless principle-free gravy-trainers to manage it...  all parties are coalitions of some kind, not sure how you be in the same party as say Dorries for example. However clearly the orange bookers LD's like Clegg, Laws etc could easily sit in the same party of whatever name as Cameron, Osborne etc. |
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