Local Council by-elections 6th December

[robbienicoll]

Whilst we wait for stage 4, Libertarian (8) and UKIP (18) transfers were as follows:

SNP received 2 from both
Con received 1 from Libertarians and 5 from UKIP
Ind (Greene) received 2 from Libertarians and 3 from UKIP
Greens got none from either
Lib Dems got 2 from UKIP
Labour got 1 from UKIP
Ind (Davis) got 1 from both

First preference percentages:
SNP - 33.1%
Con - 26.0%
Ind (Greene) - 15.6%
Green - 9.0%
LD - 8.0%
Lab - 4.4%
Ind (Davis) - 3.3%
UKIP - 0.4%
Libertarian - 0.2%

[robbienicoll]

Transfers (133):

SNP-5
Con-18
Ind-50
Green-5
LD-24
Lab-4
Non-transfers-27

[andrewp]

Looking like an SNP gain now.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

                            Stage I     Stage II    Stage III   Stage IV

Gavin BERKENHEGER    C        1,037 +  1  1,038 +  5  1,043 + 18  1,061
Christopher BIRT     Lab        174         174 +  1    175 +  4    179
Irene Frances BRANDT SGP        359         359         359 +  5    364
Harry CHRISTIAN      Lbt          8 -  8      -           -           -
Jean DAVIS           Ind        131 +  1    132 +  1    133 -133      -
Les DURANCE          UKIP        16 +  2     18 - 18      -           -
Richard GREENE       Ind        622 +  2    624 +  3    627 + 50    677
Alexander MACINNES   SNP      1,318 +  2  1,320 +  2  1,322 +  5  1,327
George SCOTT         L Dem      320         320 +  2    322 + 24    346

Non-transferrable                           -   +  4      4 + 27     31

[Deleted]

That’s a good increase in vote share for the SNP and us. Poor for the Lib Dems.

[robbienicoll]

Transfers (179) - 

SNP-27
Con-10
Ind-22
Green-47
LD-33
Non Transfers-40

[robbienicoll]

Transfers (379) -

SNP-43
Con-76
Ind-86
Green-72
Non Transfers-102

[middleenglander]

Independent Green is now 362 behind Conservative with 483 Green party votes to transfer. What happens if final stage is SNP versus Conservative with say 1,000 Independent Green votes to transfer?

Conservative started 281 behind SNP on first preference, now 250 behind.

[andrewp]

Dec 7, 2018 13:30:09 GMT middleenglander said:

Independent Green is now 362 behind Conservative with 483 Green party votes to transfer. What happens if final stage is SNP versus Conservative with say 1,000 Independent Green votes to transfer?

Conservative started 281 behind SNP on first preference, now 250 behind.

I’d still be surprised if the Independent Greene votes split gets the Conservatives within 200-300

[robbienicoll]

Dec 7, 2018 13:30:09 GMT middleenglander said:

Independent Green is now 362 behind Conservative with 483 Green party votes to transfer. What happens if final stage is SNP versus Conservative with say 1,000 Independent Green votes to transfer?

Conservative started 281 behind SNP on first preference, now 250 behind.

Net transfers so far have been 79 for SNP, 110 for Conservatives and 163 for the Independent, with the Greens taking 124. SNP may just squeak it based on that but if the transfers cut more towards the Conservatives it could also go that way. Going to be very close.

[Deleted]

Dec 7, 2018 13:41:36 GMT robbienicoll said:

Dec 7, 2018 13:30:09 GMT middleenglander said:

Independent Green is now 362 behind Conservative with 483 Green party votes to transfer. What happens if final stage is SNP versus Conservative with say 1,000 Independent Green votes to transfer?

Conservative started 281 behind SNP on first preference, now 250 behind.

Net transfers so far have been 79 for SNP, 110 for Conservatives and 163 for the Independent, with the Greens taking 124. SNP may just squeak it based on that but if the transfers cut more towards the Conservatives it could also go that way. Going to be very close.

Anybody fancy a recount ? 

[robbienicoll]

Transfers (483) - 

SNP-178
Con-39
Ind-120
Non Transfers-146

Net Transfers - 

SNP-257
Con-149
Ind-283

<iframe width="11.199999999999989" height="4.199999999999989" style="position: absolute; width: 11.199999999999989px; height: 4.199999999999989px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 5px; top: 5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_41413002" scrolling="no"></iframe>

<iframe width="11.199999999999989" height="4.199999999999989" style="position: absolute; width: 11.2px; height: 4.2px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 502px; top: 5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_53429454" scrolling="no"></iframe>

<iframe width="11.199999999999989" height="4.199999999999989" style="position: absolute; width: 11.2px; height: 4.2px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 5px; top: 160px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_77453249" scrolling="no"></iframe>

[middleenglander]

SNP now 389 ahead with 905 transfers to come.

[Tony Otim]

Dec 7, 2018 13:45:20 GMT middleenglander said:

SNP now 389 ahead with 905 transfers to come.

The SNP have got it then.

[timmullen1]

SNP gain:

[robbienicoll]

And there we have it

[robbienicoll]

Independent's transfers broke 223 for the SNP and 188 for the Conservatives with 494 not transferring.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

                            Stage I     Stage II    Stage III   Stage IV     Stage V     Stage VI   Stage VII    Stage VIII

Gavin BERKENHEGER    C        1,037 +  1  1,038 +  5  1,043 + 18  1,061 + 10  1,071 + 76  1,147 + 39  1,186  +188  1,374
Christopher BIRT     Lab        174         174 +  1    175 +  4    179 -179      -           -           -            -
Irene Frances BRANDT SGP        359         359         359 +  5    364 + 59    411 + 72    483 -483      -            -
Harry CHRISTIAN      Lbt          8 -  8      -           -           -           -           -           -            -
Jean DAVIS           Ind        131 +  1    132 +  1    133 -133      -           -           -           -            -
Les DURANCE          UKIP        16 +  2     18 - 18      -           -           -           -           -            -
Richard GREENE       Ind        622 +  2    624 +  3    627 + 50    677 + 22    699 + 86    785 +120    905  -905      -
Alexander MACINNES   SNP      1,318 +  2  1,320 +  2  1,322 +  5  1,327 + 27  1,354 + 43  1,397 +178  1,575  +223  1,798
George SCOTT         L Dem      320         320 +  2    322 + 24    346 + 33    379 -379      -           -            -

Non-transferrable                           -   +  4      4 + 27     31 + 40     71 +102    173 +146    319  +494    813

[edgbaston]

Very disappointing: Conservative success in the highland areas is vital to the future of unionism.

[Deleted]

Dec 7, 2018 14:27:57 GMT edgbaston said:

Very disappointing: Conservative success in the highland areas is vital to the future of unionism.

This one was always going to be a long shot for us, don't forget this ward is part of the SNP's second safest Westminster seats and they won the most votes in the 2017 locals.  Our vote held up well despite the drop in turnout and I think it was a fairly good result all things considered.