Can UKIP win a by-election?

[Harry Hayfield]

In a post on PB.com, Mike Smithson says: "The best prospect of UKIP to win a by-election is if a vacancy came in a seat currently held by one of the coalition partners. Ideally it would be one where Labour was in a poor third in 2010"

Assuming that a poor third is 7% of the vote or less, there are 29 seats which match this description, those seats are:

Bath, Central Devon, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chippenham, Eastbourne, Guildford, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Lewes, Ludlow, Meon Valley, Mid Dorset and Poole North, Mid Sussex, Newbury, North Dorset, North Norfolk, North Wiltshire, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Somerton and Frome, South West Surrey, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton Deane, Torbay, West Dorset, West Worcestershire, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Winchester and Yeovil

Of those 29, if a by-election were to happen, the most likely is Richmond Park (over the third runway).

Do members agree with Mike's assessement of where a UKIP win would come from?

[Deleted]

You mentioned Richmond PArk but some things with that one (lets not think someone would die in situ)

1) if Goldsmith resigned would he do a Davies or go indy ?

2) UKIP have no base there and if a labour candidate went anti runway would they gain the votes instead ?

3) Are the LD's not anti runway.

The thing Smithson has not factored in is if any UKIP presence in the first place ?

[Rural Radical]

I would take Ludlow of the list. Labour strength in Broseley and potential in Bridgnorth and Ludlow itself (latent Labour vote due to tactical voting since 2001) as well as some of the smaller settlements.

[Rural Radical]

I would guess that Ukip could win a rural. Seat in the Home Counties.

[Sibboleth]

I think you should actually look for safe Tory seats that Labour could never, ever win, rather than Coalition seats where Labour were squeezed in 2010 - many of these are just Con/Lib marginals.

[Rural Radical]

Somewhere like Hampshire North West or Devizes etc

[Deleted]

the thing is UKIP proclaim these great result yet got nowhere near winning a seat. I just think they could not get the votes required in a safe tory seat to win it.

Despite the current issues the Tories have a Tory 'anti-EU' candidate would beat UKIP.

[Rural Radical]

Tbf all the by elections have been in Labour seats except Corby which is a bell weather marginal

[froome]

Dec 3, 2012 19:49:19 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

In a post on PB.com, Mike Smithson says: "The best prospect of UKIP to win a by-election is if a vacancy came in a seat currently held by one of the coalition partners. Ideally it would be one where Labour was in a poor third in 2010"

Assuming that a poor third is 7% of the vote or less, there are 29 seats which match this description, those seats are:

Bath, Central Devon, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chippenham, Eastbourne, Guildford, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Lewes, Ludlow, Meon Valley, Mid Dorset and Poole North, Mid Sussex, Newbury, North Dorset, North Norfolk, North Wiltshire, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Somerton and Frome, South West Surrey, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton Deane, Torbay, West Dorset, West Worcestershire, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Winchester and Yeovil

Of those 29, if a by-election were to happen, the most likely is Richmond Park (over the third runway).

Do members agree with Mike's assessement of where a UKIP win would come from?

No, I don't agree with Mike's assessment or with yours Harry. Your list of seats mostly comprises ones that are currently either held by the Lib Dems or are Lib Dem/ Conservative marginals, where the latent Labour vote has voted tactically for the Lib Dems, and hence their poor third place. The most likely happening in any of those seats is for some of that Lib Dem vote to return to Labour (and hopefully to us as well), but I can't see UKIP gaining much out of most of them. The only seats in your list where I would expect UKIP to poll well, but not to win, would be the most rural seats, like Central Devon and Ludlow, plus the more urban seats along the south coast, like Mid Dorset & Poole North and Torbay.

The only seats where UKIP could possibly win are those where they have a strong organisation in place and councillors on the ground. That probably limits it to a small handful (if that).

[Deleted]

Dec 3, 2012 19:49:19 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

In a post on PB.com, Mike Smithson says: "The best prospect of UKIP to win a by-election is if a vacancy came in a seat currently held by one of the coalition partners. Ideally it would be one where Labour was in a poor third in 2010"

Assuming that a poor third is 7% of the vote or less, there are 29 seats which match this description, those seats are:

Bath, Central Devon, Cheltenham, Chesham and Amersham, Chippenham, Eastbourne, Guildford, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Lewes, Ludlow, Meon Valley, Mid Dorset and Poole North, Mid Sussex, Newbury, North Dorset, North Norfolk, North Wiltshire, Richmond Park, Romsey and Southampton North, Somerton and Frome, South West Surrey, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton Deane, Torbay, West Dorset, West Worcestershire, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Winchester and Yeovil

Of those 29, if a by-election were to happen, the most likely is Richmond Park (over the third runway).

Do members agree with Mike's assessement of where a UKIP win would come from?

I don't entirely agree. Surely seats with a high proportion of LibDem voters would be unlikely to elect a UKIP MP.

Seats such as Romford, Rayleigh and Wickford, New Forest West, Castle Point and Boston and Skegness would probably be better bets (I'm afraid).

But - if Newbury (OK, he's mentioned that) and Christchurch were to come up again, I don't think they'd go over to the LibDems in droves.

[Sibboleth]

I suppose that the speculation is so random is a good reason to argue that, maybe, the answer is actually 'no'?

Actually I don't think that, but it's worth highlighting. UKIP doesn't really have much of a natural constituency, so to speak.

[The Bishop]

I think some of us mentioned on a previous thread that Boston/Skegness might be UKIP's "dream" by-election at present (and yes, they would have a genuine chance there)

[Sibboleth]

That would be... incredibly ugly. Urgh. It isn't that likely a by-election, is it?

[baloo]

Personally I don't think UKIP will win a seat this parliament. If they did I think a southern seat with a strong white working class vote might be a good target for them, somewhere like Dover. Alternatively somewhere like Altrincham and Sale West if the Tory candidate supported the party line on grammar schools. Even more speculatively, their dabbling in Northern Ireland might produce something. Given the internal volatility of the Unionist vote, if there was a by election in a strongly Unionist area when the DUP were weak, if they worked with the TUV and got a strong candidate there might be a slim, outside chance of a win.

Fundamentally I think a strategy of sitting around and waiting for a by election that they can win is a bad strategy, although it does seem to be what UKIP are doing nationally. They should pick a small number of seats and work them hard over 5, 10, 15 years. If there is a by election in one that's just a bonus.

[Rural Radical]

They wouldn't win Dover.

[Deleted]

news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_36.stm

shows where in 2009 UKIP were as strong second and labour a distant 5th behind the greens

in the general election 2010 Devon east was UKIP highest share of the vote 8.2%

Boston and Skegness gives the biggest chance in the rest of the UK

As many have commented I think we need to increase the councilor and activist base before thinking of MPs

[Pete Whitehead]

There seem to be some seats missing off Harry's list such as North Cornwall and Torridge & west Devon. I don't agree anyway that it is necessary for Labour to be that low. Obviously a seat like Dover where Labour are strong is not going to be a good prospecta t the current time but somewhere which has a reasonable Labour base but where they don't really have the potential to win wouod be fine because actually it would probably be necessary to have a fairly split vote to enable UKIP to win on something like 30-35% of the vote. Boston clearly is a good prospect in this respect because I'm doubtful Labour can do well enough to win there themselves now. I have mentioned Bognor Regis & Littlehampton on another thread as a reasonable one - there Labour have a modest core vote but don't have enough latent support to win. It could be won with as little as 30% against split opposition. I think Worthing East & Shoreham is also a good prospect. In the longer term I think some of the best prospects are omn the East coast - places liek Yarmouth and Grimsby, but while Labour are in opposition they are going to win any by-elections in those places

[Richard Allen]

If there was a by election in Boston and Skegness the obvious UKIP candidate would be Christopher Pain. Christopher was the candidate in 2010 (polling 9.5%), was second on the MEP list in 2009, is Chairman of the local branch and of the East Midlands region. More importantly he is very hard working activist and would say is probably capable of being a good MP.

I also agree with Pete about Yarmouth and Grimsby as long term prospects as both have very good branches and in the case of the former several good young activists.

[Rural Radical]

Did you "win" any seats in the 2009 Euro poll?

[Deleted]

Dec 3, 2012 23:04:23 GMT Rural Radical said:

Did you "win" any seats in the 2009 Euro poll?

news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm