Pimpernal
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A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Feb 27, 2013 7:19:15 GMT
If they (UKIP) don't win Eastleigh then the answer will be not in this parliament I would imagine. That was the general wisdom following Rotherham... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 7:27:25 GMT
If they (UKIP) don't win Eastleigh then the answer will be not in this parliament I would imagine. That was the general wisdom following Rotherham... I know that Parliamentary b/e's are not that forseeable, but the one seat where there could be one called (Portsmouth South) would be a straight LD/ Lab fight I would imagine. Rotherham had its own peculiar circumstances. The problem is Pimp that if Ukip don't win one this term, an EU referendum next term would totally shoot the fox. So the answer maybe...never... |
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Pimpernal
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A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Feb 27, 2013 7:52:52 GMT
Eastleigh was supposed to be a straight LD/Con fight... I honestly never expected us to be in the running in eastleigh. Portsmouth South could be equally unpredictable - where do the Tories go? Where do the protest LDs go?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 9:20:07 GMT
Straight back to the Labour party in the latter case? I don't know...ask khan..
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2013 9:32:58 GMT
Quite a lot back to Labour certainly making it possible to win on a low share with a very fragmented vote, more so than in Eastleigh. I don't think Khun would necessarily give an unbiased answer
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 9:57:14 GMT
Romford with a black disabled lesbian tory candidate.
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Tony Otim
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Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 27, 2013 11:46:41 GMT
That was the general wisdom following Rotherham... I know that Parliamentary b/e's are not that forseeable, but the one seat where there could be one called (Portsmouth South) would be a straight LD/ Lab fight I would imagine. Rotherham had its own peculiar circumstances. The problem is Pimp that if Ukip don't win one this term, an EU referendum next term would totally shoot the fox. So the answer maybe...never... You're thinking here seems to make the assumption that UKIP's current popularity and surge in Eastleigh is all about Europe, which I don't think it is. I'm not even sure it's mainly about Europe - it's a mix of them being in pole position for the none of the above protests, some right wing populism and, to a lesser extent, the collapse of the further right vote, as well as Europe. |
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Post by thirdchill on Feb 27, 2013 12:11:17 GMT
Southport would be interesting for UKIP if there was a byelection. Although they haven't won a council seat in the area, they are polled a more substantial vote there in local elections recently, and would be able to take second place from us with a very good campaign. Beating the lib dems in southport however is a big ask...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 13:11:52 GMT
Southport would be interesting for UKIP if there was a byelection. Although they haven't won a council seat in the area, they are polled a more substantial vote there in local elections recently, and would be able to take second place from us with a very good campaign. Beating the lib dems in southport however is a big ask... Pugh (on usual sardonic form I noticed) may well just hold on. Funny place Southport, the local free sheets tend to give a lot of spikey coverage to the local council... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 13:23:23 GMT
I know that Parliamentary b/e's are not that forseeable, but the one seat where there could be one called (Portsmouth South) would be a straight LD/ Lab fight I would imagine. Rotherham had its own peculiar circumstances. The problem is Pimp that if Ukip don't win one this term, an EU referendum next term would totally shoot the fox. So the answer maybe...never... You're thinking here seems to make the assumption that UKIP's current popularity and surge in Eastleigh is all about Europe, which I don't think it is. I'm not even sure it's mainly about Europe - it's a mix of them being in pole position for the none of the above protests, some right wing populism and, to a lesser extent, the collapse of the further right vote, as well as Europe. Europe has hardly featured in conversations I have had around Eastleigh. There is a general tiredness to the three main British poloitical parties which is attracting the vote. My thinking is that the raison d'etre of the party would be gone next term if Cameron gets his way and the centre right with some rather alarming populism manifesto would be the ticket, which would get mercilessly trashed. If Hancock is forced to resign the seat I would expect an LD/ Lab fight there, however I am ignorant as to the UKIP base there. Perhaps our Kippers can enlighten us. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2013 13:44:29 GMT
I can't but I can enlighten you about the relative positions of the Conservative and Labour parties in that seat which is such that your suggestion of a straight LD/Lab fight is absurd. It would be a three way marginal and UKIP should make it four way. Labour's share in Portsmouth South in 2010 was not much better than it was in Eastleigh
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Post by thirdchill on Feb 27, 2013 14:25:27 GMT
Southport would be interesting for UKIP if there was a byelection. Although they haven't won a council seat in the area, they are polled a more substantial vote there in local elections recently, and would be able to take second place from us with a very good campaign. Beating the lib dems in southport however is a big ask... Pugh (on usual sardonic form I noticed) may well just hold on. Funny place Southport, the local free sheets tend to give a lot of spikey coverage to the local council... The lib dems have a good local presence in southport, as opposed to the rest of sefton where they are being hammered. However I think UKIP can do well around here. A lot of conservatives around here are quite open to voting for them. Also some of the lib dem vote around here is eurosceptic and to the right of the lib dems nationally on social issues. They certainly polled well in the last local elections when our vote dropped very badly. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 27, 2013 16:21:48 GMT
I can't but I can enlighten you about the relative positions of the Conservative and Labour parties in that seat which is such that your suggestion of a straight LD/Lab fight is absurd. It would be a three way marginal and UKIP should make it four way. Labour's share in Portsmouth South in 2010 was not much better than it was in Eastleigh Although the vote shares in Eastleigh and Portsmouth South are similar, there is more potential for Labour in Portsmouth South as they do have a significant local election vote to build upon. I also suspect that the average Portsmouth Lib Dem is to the left of the average Eastleigh Lib Dem and is more likely to consider switching to Labour. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2013 17:18:27 GMT
I agree there's potentital for Labour to win Portsmouth South more so than in Eastleigh and argued the same myself in another place, but i'd dispute the notion of it being some kind of two-horse race in which the Tories don't feature. IN fact it's precisely because it would be a three (at least) horse race that Labour have the ability to win
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 8:49:23 GMT
If you want to think of a place you could win, in many ways you could look at Solihull (lets ignore local UKIP infighting for a second)as a place in a by election you could win. But at a GE which is what really counts I just can not see any seat at all. UKIP could fall into the LD trap of thinking by election results count at GE's
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2013 9:28:15 GMT
what UKIP need as Eastleigh showed for the LD is a local base. We may have done poorly because our local base in that seat disappeared and so did the Tory one. The LD were brilliant on the ground with all the councillors of course.
To prove any kind of ability to win at GE's the next set of county council elections for UKIP are vital to start winning council seats.
Any move of the Tories to move into the UKIP ground will now be a disaster for them.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 1, 2013 13:19:41 GMT
If they (UKIP) don't win Eastleigh then the answer will be not in this parliament I would imagine. That was the general wisdom following Rotherham... The general wisdom would appear to be holding up nicely thus far... |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 1, 2013 13:37:52 GMT
No they don't. To win half a dozen seats, UKIP do not need any sort of local council base at all, they need the electorate to believe that they can win parliamentary seats, then they need two dozen seats where the demographics give them an outside chance. By contrast, they can build all the local base they want, but it will translate into zero to one seats unless the electorate actually think they can win. In fact, the presence of a couple of hundred UKIP councillors being stupid in public might actively harm their chances. Yes and No. Winning council seats in significant numbers would help us to convince people that we can win parliamentary seats. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2013 15:36:54 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 2, 2013 16:04:26 GMT
Sutton Coldfield has seen pretty much zero UKIP activity since the last General Election although that should be changing in the near future.
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