Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2013 16:05:30 GMT
thing is I would imagine that seat could be left unfilled as we know the GE would be soon
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 2, 2013 19:23:23 GMT
I would expect any Westminster vacancy which occurs before late 2014 to have a by-election.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 2, 2013 19:35:57 GMT
I don't think UKIP would be able to win Sutton Coldfield. Some of those wealthy Tory voters in Four Oaks would probably rather put the LDs as their second choice than UKIP IMO.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2013 19:51:20 GMT
Like all places the demographics are changing, witness the election of a labour councillor. However it is the older voters that are being lost by the Tories at the moment and Four Oaks is teeming with them.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 2, 2013 20:16:43 GMT
Methinks this thread could do with some cold water.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 3, 2013 16:16:52 GMT
The idea that any good UKIP byelection result is in some way dependent on previous UKIP performances is pretty illusionary. We've never really had a set of results that would make much impact - even in Eastleigh it wasn't really that much of a factor.
The reason a Sutton coldfield byelection would crop up - appointment to be an EU Commissioner would totally play into UKIP's hands and make them relevant from the outset.
I think our prospects in such a seat would be very good...
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Post by erlend on Mar 3, 2013 18:05:48 GMT
I think the logical places for a UKIP win would be a relatively safe Tory seat where the Lib Dems tend to come a mediocre second with little of a historic council base (by which I include seats seriously fought even if lost) and Labour a poor (sub 20% but without that being after a serious squeeze so there are not lots of votes to unsqueeze).
Examples
Devizes, North Somerset, Bromley and Chislehurst, North Shropshire, Ashford.
Probably best without a big LD/Lab machine close to hand so not Henley (ie Oxford for both) or Blaby (S Leics? with Leicester [Lab] and Harborough/Bosworth [LD] which would lower the squeeze effects.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Mar 4, 2013 7:45:15 GMT
I have no doubt that under certain circumstances UKIP could win a parliamentary seat, the question though is how long would their representative remain a member of the party? Their track record in the European Parliament is none to good in that respect.
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