The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2023 9:20:01 GMT
Translation: Plaid will get votes, but they are so small we don't care if they get 0.49% of the national vote, so we'll put them down as 0% Well you do know this is how rounding works, yes?
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 8, 2023 13:54:58 GMT
Translation: Plaid will get votes, but they are so small we don't care if they get 0.49% of the national vote, so we'll put them down as 0% Well you do know this is how rounding works, yes? Absolutely, but when you have a situation where national polls have them on either 0% or 1%, and Welsh polls have them between 11% and 20%, what are you supposed to do?
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Post by woollyliberal on Oct 8, 2023 14:39:13 GMT
Well you do know this is how rounding works, yes? Absolutely, but when you have a situation where national polls have them on either 0% or 1%, and Welsh polls have them between 11% and 20%, what are you supposed to do? Welsh polls having PC between 11% and 20% implies a UK percentage between 0.5% and 0.9%. UK polls show PC on either 0% or 1%, rounded to the nearest whole percentage point. That doesn't sound wrong to me.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 8, 2023 18:33:26 GMT
Well you do know this is how rounding works, yes? Absolutely, but when you have a situation where national polls have them on either 0% or 1%, and Welsh polls have them between 11% and 20%, what are you supposed to do?Vote for an independent Wales, then "national" polls will be Wales-wide not UK-wide
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Post by london(ex)tory on Oct 9, 2023 16:59:55 GMT
Absolutely, but when you have a situation where national polls have them on either 0% or 1%, and Welsh polls have them between 11% and 20%, what are you supposed to do? Welsh polls having PC between 11% and 20% implies a UK percentage between 0.5% and 0.9%. UK polls show PC on either 0% or 1%, rounded to the nearest whole percentage point. That doesn't sound wrong to me. Looking at the full figures for today's offering from Redfield and Wilton, the vagaries of rounding means Plaid is now level with the SNP! (PC rounded up from 0.57; SNP rounded down from 1.37) Which is rather amusing.
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borisminor
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Post by borisminor on Oct 10, 2023 8:43:09 GMT
One thing I do with the polling average is if there is information that at least some voters have selected Plaid or Other as an option but are written as 0%, I place them as 0.5%. It is imperfect but works better than a binary 0% or 1%. Pollsters should go back to measuring within 0.5% again.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 14, 2023 22:39:18 GMT
Theres an Opinium for the Observer tomorrow
Labour: 44% (+2) Conservative: 28% (-1) Liberal Democrat: 10% (-1) Green 6% (=) Ref UK 6% (=)
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 29, 2023 12:45:26 GMT
LAB: 42% (-2) CON: 27% (-1) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 8% (+2) GRN: 7% (+1) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch, 25-27 Oct. Changes w/ 11-13 Oct.
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Post by batman on Oct 29, 2023 21:11:17 GMT
Reform up 2 to 8%? that seems odd
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 12, 2023 11:06:01 GMT
Labour lead up to 17 points in their latest - crisis for Starmer pt 94752.
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 12, 2023 12:55:36 GMT
Labour lead up to 17 points in their latest - crisis for Starmer pt 94752. I wish people wouldn't attribute labours lead to the debate in the party ATM. There's literally polling on that. Opinium have done some in this same poll
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Post by batman on Nov 12, 2023 13:26:32 GMT
Highest Labour lead in an Opinium poll since July.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 12, 2023 13:37:43 GMT
"Starmer slumps to 17 point lead"
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 12, 2023 13:48:15 GMT
Don’t think we’ve had the actual numbers
•Labour 43% (+1) •Conservatives 26% (-1) •Lib Dems 11% (+1) •SNP 3% (n/c) •Greens 6% (-1) •Reform 9% (+1)
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 12, 2023 15:53:01 GMT
Labour’s lead is back up to 17 points from 15 a fortnight ago.
•Labour 43% (+1) •Conservatives 26% (-1) •Lib Dems 11% (+1) •SNP 3% (n/c) •Greens 6% (-1) •Reform 9% (+1)
Rishi Sunak’s net approval is now -32, down from -25 in our last poll.
And Starmer’s net approval is now -9, down from -3 a fortnight ago. Opinium
Starmer leads the 'best Prime Minister' question by 7 points over Sunak, at 29% compared to Sunak’s 22%. Opinium @opiniumresearch
Party brands show divergent views:
Labour is seen as more in touch with ordinary people (+11%), while the Conservatives are viewed more negatively on this aspect (-51%).
Labour have had a significant drop in being ‘united’ compared to our last measure on this, at -8%.
Rishi Sunak faces mixed perceptions, with the highest agreement on his ability to stick to principles at 30%.
However, 62% disagree that he is in touch with ordinary people.
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Opinium
Nov 12, 2023 15:55:25 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 12, 2023 15:55:25 GMT
Keir Starmer sees stronger agreement on having the nation's best interests at heart at 38%.
39% disagree that he looks like a Prime Minister in waiting, his weakest attribute.
The public views the response of UK leaders to the Israel-Gaza conflict as weak, with both Starmer and Sunak seen as more weak than strong.
The UK protests on the Israel-Gaza conflict are perceived as well-behaved, with more approval for those protesting against the actions of Hamas.
However, nearly half find the Gaza ceasefire march on Remembrance Day to be an unreasonable decision, reflecting a split in public opinion.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 18, 2023 20:21:41 GMT
LAB: 40% (-3) CON: 27% (+1) LDM: 12% (+1) RFM: 9% (=) GRN: 6% (+1) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch, 15-17 Nov. Changes w/ 8-10 Nov.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 28, 2023 12:46:06 GMT
Their weekend poll unusually got missed on here, has the Labour lead at 42-26.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 28, 2023 13:21:51 GMT
· Labour 42% (+2) · Conservatives 26% (-1) · Lib Dems 11% (-1) · SNP 3% (n/c) · Greens 7% (n/c) · Reform 8% (-1)
22-24 Nov fieldwork
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 16, 2023 20:20:06 GMT
LAB: 40% (-2) CON: 27% (+1) LDM: 11% (=) RFM: 9% (+1) GRN: 7% (=) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch, 13-15 Dec. Changes w/ 22-24 Nov.
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