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Post by andrewp on Aug 6, 2023 21:20:14 GMT
Well several people who are not Labour sympathizers on this forum have expressed a desire for the Tories to lose, and they mean to Labour. Indeed some spokespeople for the Reform Party these days appear to be more actively hostile to the Tories than they are towards Labour. When Bob Spink was either in or close to UKIP he tended to exude that vibe, too. Isn’t that the same for people on the right and left? There are people on the left ( and Twitter is full of them, and there are 1 or 2 on here) , who won’t like the Starmer government- not left wing enough for them- who will happily vote Green or something left of Labour, knowing that will help the Tories. And will say ( and are saying) things like Labour are Conservative light so you might as well have the Tories and/or they want Labour to lose. |
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Post by grumpyguy on Aug 6, 2023 21:25:40 GMT
Opinium consistently have the lowest figure for Labour and the highest for Reform. I suspect that's not a coincidence; their methodology may produce this, for example by inflating the likelihood of elderly white men to turn out to vote, while deflating that of women or younger voters, at least as compared with other pollsters. They may be right but I prefer to go with the consensus. Didn't they change their methodology about 12 months ago which depressed Labour's lead by 6-8 percentage points? 'Didn't they change their methodology about 12 months ago which depressed Labour's lead by 6-8 percentage points?' They did indeed, Bridgy. This is another issue/problem that I have and involves the way they treat 2019 Conservative ex-voters, who are now don't knows. Other pollsters appear to regard a lot of them as converts to Labour, but Opinium don't seem to accept that, and their figure for Labour is therefore correspondingly lower. If they also treat some of them as more likely to vote Reform than Labour then that might explain part of their high figure for RefUK. Given how many months there are before an Election, it's impossible to know how right they are on either issue, but in the case of converts to RefUK, their figures suggest that other pollsters have under-estimated the number by 3% of those voting. This is about 1 million voters. This seems very high. |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 19, 2023 21:26:09 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDM: 11% (=)
RFM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch, 16-18 Aug.
Changes w/ 2-4 Aug.
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 2, 2023 20:18:02 GMT
30 Aug-1 Sept
Lab 42 +1
Con 28 +2
LD 9 -2
Reform 8 -1
Green 8 +1
Looks a bit like 1983 in reverse (add the Lib Dem, Reform and Greens and we have the Alliance share)
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Post by batman on Sept 2, 2023 20:26:40 GMT
and Sunak's personal ratings down apparently
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 2, 2023 20:37:10 GMT
Net approval for Rishi Sunak at is down 2 points compared to a fortnight ago at -25% (-2), with 24% approving and 49% disapproving.
Keir Starmer is down 1 point with a net approval of -7%, 28% approving and 35% disapproving.
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Post by batman on Sept 13, 2023 7:16:01 GMT
A veteran former Wandsworth Labour councillor of my acquaintance last night showed me a Daily Mirror story which concerned an Opinium poll, the figures for which were apparently Lab 47 C 22. Didn't see the other party figures. Can't see it on the Opinium website & therefore can't see if a ) it's accurately reported and b ) when the fieldwork was. This was in the pub in Putney.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 16, 2023 19:07:48 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 41% (-1)
CON: 26% (-2)
LDM: 11% (+2)
RFM: 8% (=)
GRN: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch, 13-15 Sep.
Changes w/ 30 Aug - 1 Sep.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 30, 2023 19:27:27 GMT
A long sampling period. And the first Labour under 40 for a long time I think
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 39% (-2)
CON: 29% (+3)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 7% (=)
RFM: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch, 17-29 Sep.
Changes w/ 13-15 Sep.
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Post by bridgyoldboy on Sept 30, 2023 21:36:40 GMT
A long sampling period. And the first Labour under 40 for a long time I think Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 39% (-2) CON: 29% (+3) LDM: 12% (+1) GRN: 7% (=) RFM: 7% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @opiniumresearch, 17-29 Sep. Changes w/ 13-15 Sep. Do opininum still use an element of prediction in their methodology? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,075
Member is Online
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 30, 2023 23:11:46 GMT
Do opininum still use an element of prediction in their methodology? Yes. I tend to think that if you do this and still end up producing rather high figures for minor parties, that should be taken as an indicator that you're doing something wrong. |
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Post by robert1 on Oct 1, 2023 0:54:34 GMT
A long sampling period. And the first Labour under 40 for a long time I think Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 39% (-2) CON: 29% (+3) LDM: 12% (+1) GRN: 7% (=) RFM: 7% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @opiniumresearch, 17-29 Sep. Changes w/ 13-15 Sep. On 'twitter' it apears that the fieldwork is 27th-29th not 17th. This is also the period identified on Wiki's poll of polls page |
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Post by batman on Oct 1, 2023 8:16:03 GMT
If we accept this as a snapshot opinion poll, it is heavily out of line with other polls, especially YouGov whose fieldwork overlapped with this one. If it is more of a predictor than a snapshot poll, it's possible both polls are correct. If this is a snapshot poll, obviously they can't both be.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,630 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 1, 2023 8:53:46 GMT
The Guardian notes this about the Conservative vote at the last election (some 14 million votes):
1,680,000 will vote Labour (11,949,051 votes in total)
1,820,000 will vote Reform UK (2,464,257 votes in total)
700,000 will vote Liberal Democrat (4,396,419 votes in total)
420,000 will vote Green (1,255,597 votes in total)
leaving the Conservatives with 9,380,000 votes which would make a vote share of: Lab 43%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 14%, Reform 9%, Green 5%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 35,451
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2023 8:54:30 GMT
Four polls taken at roughly the same time period, one well out of line with the other three (even allowing for house effects)
Btw this recent MRP survey by "Stonehaven" also had Labour at 39%, though that apparently involved fieldwork as far back as August.
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Post by batman on Oct 1, 2023 9:28:09 GMT
The Tories will welcome their relatively high vote share & Labour dropping below 40%. But in every English region it also shows either 11% or 12% of 2019 Tory voters planning to vote Labour. In the absence of more than a tiny number going the other way this is obviously serious for the Tories - not that any polling for the last year & a half has been anything but serious. If the rise in the Lib Dem share of the vote is disproportionately in constituencies where the LDs are the main challengers to the Tories (of course, there is no guarantee that that is the case) it's even worse for them.
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Post by gibbon on Oct 1, 2023 11:10:55 GMT
The Daily Express considers this is wonderful news for the Conservatives. They lose, go into opposition but not as much. but not as much
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Post by andrewp on Oct 7, 2023 19:36:47 GMT
Poll for the Observer tomorrow - fieldwork 4-6 October
· Labour: 42% (+3)
· Conservative: 29% (n/c)
· Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1)
· SNP: 3% (nc)
· Plaid Cymru: 0% (-1)
· Green: 6% (-1)
· Reform UK: 6% (-1)
· Other: 2% (nc)
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,630
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 8, 2023 7:16:32 GMT
Poll for the Observer tomorrow - fieldwork 4-6 October · Labour: 42% (+3) · Conservative: 29% (n/c) · Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1) · SNP: 3% (nc) · Plaid Cymru: 0% (-1) · Green: 6% (-1) · Reform UK: 6% (-1) · Other: 2% (nc) Translation: Plaid will get votes, but they are so small we don't care if they get 0.49% of the national vote, so we'll put them down as 0% |
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Post by batman on Oct 8, 2023 7:39:34 GMT
Normally the Tories & Labour both get a bit of a boost from their conferences. This year some polls have the Tories modestly up from theirs, but there are several which have gone in the opposite direction. Well in this one the Tories aren't down, Labour are up. 39% was improbable last week so this is perhaps a reversion to the norm.
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