The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 1, 2012 20:36:22 GMT
In tomorrow's Observer:
Lab 38 (-1)
Con 29 (-3)
UKIP 13 (+3)
LibDem 9 (+1)
The UKIP figure speaks for itself.......
|
|
|
|
Post by marksenior on Dec 1, 2012 20:38:32 GMT
In tomorrow's Observer: Lab 38 (-1) Con 29 (-3) UKIP 13 (+3) LibDem 9 (+1) The UKIP figure speaks for itself....... and the Others figure of 11% tells you there is something mighty wrong with the methodology . |
|
Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
|
Post by Rural Radical on Dec 1, 2012 20:38:51 GMT
What do Ukip need to get to until they start winning se
Seats?
|
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Dec 1, 2012 21:24:26 GMT
I've seen 15% quoted as a figure where UKIP would start picking up a number of seats. They could of course gain an individual seat on just about any national vote share if they would implement a proper targeting strategy.
|
|
|
|
Post by Philip Davies on Dec 1, 2012 21:40:02 GMT
They might have to do what the Greens did and target a specific seat or two. With the Greens it was Brighton Pavilion and to a much lesser extent Norwich South. I am not sure where though. Perhaps Boston & Skegness or Newcastle-under-Lyme.
|
|
|
|
Post by anthony on Dec 1, 2012 22:30:40 GMT
I've seen 15% quoted as a figure where UKIP would start picking up a number of seats. They could of course gain an individual seat on just about any national vote share if they would implement a proper targeting strategy. And equally they might not gain any seats even if they get a national vote share equivalent to what they're currently polling. We'll see if they begin to see similar increases in shares of the vote in Council elections. |
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
|
Post by Pimpernal on Dec 2, 2012 7:31:48 GMT
What do Ukip need to get to until they start winning se Seats? about 50% I think  |
|
Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
|
Post by Rural Radical on Dec 2, 2012 9:26:08 GMT
I think there best strategy would be to target about a dozen seats and leave it at that.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 10:41:20 GMT
In this poll a significant bit has been missed and that is question over cuts. In a period when Osborne's plan has failed it is noticable that the majority have swung against it.
Contrary to what Tories believe.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 10:42:20 GMT
I think there best strategy would be to target about a dozen seats and leave it at that. Forst get a full slate of candidates across the UK, to be called the UK Independence Party you have to stand in every seat in the UK. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 11:48:29 GMT
If you are commenting on how much percent of the national vote equates to a seat. Doesn't that just show how wrong our system is when the governing party can have over half the seats but less than 40 percent of the votes cast and even less of the actual electorate eligible to vote.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 11:49:42 GMT
In tomorrow's Observer: Lab 38 (-1) Con 29 (-3) UKIP 13 (+3) LibDem 9 (+1) The UKIP figure speaks for itself....... The Tories need UKIP votes more than they need Lib Dem seats come the next election. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 13:40:11 GMT
If you are commenting on how much percent of the national vote equates to a seat. Doesn't that just show how wrong our system is when the governing party can have over half the seats but less than 40 percent of the votes cast and even less of the actual electorate eligible to vote. Wont get an argument from me on that, it is obscene a party can get 42% of the vote aand a majority of nearly 200 |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 14:20:09 GMT
I think there best strategy would be to target about a dozen seats and leave it at that. Forst get a full slate of candidates across the UK, to be called the UK Independence Party you have to stand in every seat in the UK. 12 seats might be too many for them, good possibility they'll get carried away and not spend or target wisely. Like the Greens in Brighton they'll need to spend every penny up to the limit in the regulated period and UKIP are very keen on blowing massive sums on billboards/mobile advertising. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 14:50:10 GMT
but unlike Brighton there is no three way marginal out there for them. They have no area with a strong councillor base as you did and it is imperative to have that.
Until they WIN a few council seats and not defections then can not be taken seriously.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 17:26:36 GMT
but unlike Brighton there is no three way marginal out there for them. They have no area with a strong councillor base as you did and it is imperative to have that. Until they WIN a few council seats and not defections then can not be taken seriously. I agree, they either need to start polling ridiculously well say 20%+ or focusing in properly. From what I know of UKIP they're either going to have no MPs or 10+  . Although I'd wager zero. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 17:46:50 GMT
problem is if locally UKIP are an example of local election campaigning they just do identikit UKIP stuff, very little local reference. It is an area the LD's learnt about along with you guys. Instead of looking at MP's for a bit they should look at councils and which ones they could win.
|
|
|
|
Post by innocentabroad on Dec 2, 2012 18:16:50 GMT
but unlike Brighton there is no three way marginal out there for them. They have no area with a strong councillor base as you did and it is imperative to have that. Until they WIN a few council seats and not defections then can not be taken seriously. I agree, they either need to start polling ridiculously well say 20%+ or focusing in properly. From what I know of UKIP they're either going to have no MPs or 10+ . Although I'd wager zero. The really interesting question is this. Suppose they do get a dozen seats next time. They'll be "parliamentary lepers" (as someone once said of someone else) and will have no one to talk to but themselves. In these circumstances, will they, like the SNP parliamentary Party in the 1970s, take to drink? (I somehow don't imagine that UKIP has many temperance advocates, but I'm willing to stand corrected on the point ) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 18:26:56 GMT
depends if they got 12 (they won;t) and an hung parliament, then they become powerful
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Dec 2, 2012 18:28:48 GMT
They might have to do what the Greens did and target a specific seat or two. With the Greens it was Brighton Pavilion and to a much lesser extent Norwich South. I am not sure where though. Perhaps Boston & Skegness or Newcastle-under-Lyme. There was a time when Newcastle-under-Lyme would have been a good target for us. Sadly that is no longer the case. |
|
. Although I'd wager zero.