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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 9, 2013 19:13:35 GMT
It mus also be the first time we've polled more than double the Lib Dem figure  |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2013 20:06:38 GMT
within that poll it says the following and this is crucial
With 10 days until George Osborne delivers his crucial fourth budget, an Opinium/Observer poll shows almost three times as many voters (58%) believe the austerity drive is harming the economy as those who think it is the correct medicine to restore it to health (20%).
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 9, 2013 21:08:24 GMT
If the Tories think the threat from UKIP is going to go away I think they're very much mistaken. A lot of Conservatives have never liked Cameron and only supported him because he said he could deliver a majority in 2010. Now that it looks like he won't even be able to provide one in 2015 they're giving up on the party.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2013 21:12:24 GMT
and I can not see electoral deals working or be good for either party.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 23, 2013 18:41:49 GMT
Lab 38% (-1%)
Con 28% (+1%)
UKIP 16% (-1%)
LD 9% (+1%)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2013 19:35:37 GMT
Will certainly be intresting to see how close UKIP get to the dems in terms of popular vote in 2015. Would be quite feasible to see the lib dems on about 15 with 35-40 seats and UKIP on 12 with 0.
Dont seriously think they can poll in 3rd.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 23, 2013 22:13:52 GMT
When will a party ever poll 40% in a General Election again?
And when will a party get 30% of the electorate in a GE?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2013 23:28:09 GMT
Well it will become increasingly obvious that we need PR.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2013 23:34:38 GMT
it is now Joe ... the fear for the big two is I think they would be worried their parties could be split but so be it.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 23, 2013 23:37:44 GMT
When will a party ever poll 40% in a General Election again? And when will a party get 30% of the electorate in a GE? It's going to be difficult for any party to get more than about 35% of the vote and 25% of the electorate from now on IMO. |
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cibwr
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Post by cibwr on Mar 24, 2013 11:08:23 GMT
Which then does increase the need for pr
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2013 11:29:40 GMT
Which then does increase the need for pr getting majorities on lower and lower vote shares. When you had just basically two and with the Liberals at a low level FPTP works, it does not now. If this latest poll was repeated in 2015 you would get Labour with a massive majority on less than 40% and UKIP no seats on 17% and LD's with 30 odd seats on less than UKIP. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2013 15:29:15 GMT
It's a very regrettable trend in my opinion. How far are we going to go before we complete the journey from the US two-party system towards ending up like Belgium?  |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2013 15:46:59 GMT
why is it regrettable ? the main two parties are just coalitions of differing views on the left or right. It is surprising in the last century we have only seen one split. I would not expect at all the same situation to happen in the UK but I dont see it as bad either.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 24, 2013 16:00:44 GMT
How much of a trend is it? Even on current polling, with the UKIP vote much more inflated than is actually likely to be the case come May 2015, the big two are combining for 70% of the vote. They barely reached 65% in 2010. That doesn't sound like fragmentation to me.
I'd not be excessively surprised if the combined Labour and Conservative share of the vote is bigger in 2015 than it was in 1997.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 24, 2013 20:38:12 GMT
It's a very regrettable trend in my opinion. How far are we going to go before we complete the journey from the US two-party system towards ending up like Belgium? Its not quite as 'bad' as that makes it look, because you have two parties representing each of the three main traditions (Socialist, Liberal, Christian Democrat~) because of the bifurcated political culture there. It would be likeif you treated the Scottish and Welsh LAbour parties etc as seperate to their English counterparts. Which is not to say that the party system in Benelux and Scandinavia is not awfully fragmented. PR obviously makes that more likely anyway. Needless to say I don't necessarily see it as a bad thing |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 6, 2013 17:38:44 GMT
@tobyhelm
New Opinium/Observer poll. Labour 38, Tories 28, UKIP 17, Lib Dems 8%.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Apr 6, 2013 18:05:33 GMT
The Observer must be well hacked off with their polling organisation! |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2013 18:18:11 GMT
nothing changed over the past two weeks, hoe far desperate can the Tories now get ? Still do not think UKIP at 17% is right
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 6, 2013 18:24:08 GMT
Opinium don't weight for past vote, which most other polling organisations do. They also do two-stage prompting, in other words they will mention UKIP to anyone who doesn't immediately choose one of the three main parties.
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