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Post by adlai52 on Jul 22, 2023 21:39:27 GMT
almost entirely 2019 Tory, of the 100 weighted reform respondents that gave a previous intention 91 said Tory I think the Sit On Hands Party has a pretty good shout of scooping up a lot of them. At the moment, Conservative efforts seemly totally focused on regaining these 2019-Con voters - migration, culture war etc… The problem is that that just isn’t enough - at best it puts a Labour majority in doubt. What there hasn’t been is a serious effort to tack to the centre or challenge the Tory base in a way that can bring back more moderate voters.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 22, 2023 22:51:31 GMT
I think the Sit On Hands Party has a pretty good shout of scooping up a lot of them. At the moment, Conservative efforts seemly totally focused on regaining these 2019-Con voters - migration, culture war etc… The problem is that that just isn’t enough - at best it puts a Labour majority in doubt. What there hasn’t been is a serious effort to tack to the centre or challenge the Tory base in a way that can bring back more moderate voters. It's hard for them. Tacking to the centre is difficult to do with credibility given past rhetoric, and with a wing of the parliamentary party and membership strongly opposed. (Easier after a big GE loss, with a new leader on a mandate to head that way, though still not easy, as Ed Miliband found.) But the lost 2019 voters were won on promises that couldn't be delivered on, and the current lines appear equally undeliverable. There's a cycle of promising evermore difficult things to peope who already think you don't deliver. Plus a strong sense that said voters will never be satisfied anyway.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 23, 2023 0:40:05 GMT
Talk of tacking to the centre doesn't mean a huge amount. Historically the centre was like Worcester Woman. But she probably voted Lib Dem in the last two elections and will never vote Tory again.
The new swing voter is Workington Man or Rugby Union town. People who generally aren't centrists. To the left of Worcester woman, think she's a remoaner and calls her woke
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 23, 2023 9:50:47 GMT
There are maybe two things being conflated as far as Reform support in polls is concerned.
I agree that they wouldn't score the 8-10% they are currently getting in most surveys, even if there was an election imminently. But this leads some on to a further assumption - that they will stand hardly any candidates in the next GE and so most of their poll support will go Tory.
This one I am much more sceptical about - apart from the special case of Uxbridge, have they missed a parliamentary by-election in this session? I see little reason to believe they can't stand in most seats next time if they are minded to, and they are unlikely to be in a mood for deals with the Tories in the way BxP in 2019 were.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jul 23, 2023 16:27:19 GMT
There are maybe two things being conflated as far as Reform support in polls is concerned. I agree that they wouldn't score the 8-10% they are currently getting in most surveys, even if there was an election imminently. But this leads some on to a further assumption - that they will stand hardly any candidates in the next GE and so most of their poll support will go Tory. This one I am much more sceptical about - apart from the special case of Uxbridge, have they missed a parliamentary by-election in this session? I see little reason to believe they can't stand in most seats next time if they are minded to, and they are unlikely to be in a mood for deals with the Tories in the way BxP in 2019 were. We missed Batley & Spen and we didn't stand in Southend West (but nobody of any consequence stood in that one). Other than that we've contested every by-election in this parliament. More generally the intention is to stand everywhere in England, Scotland and Wales apart from a small handful of seats where we're supporting an SDP candidate (for better or worse). We've got about 700 applicants at some stage in the process at the moment, of which about 300 are allocated to a constituency already. We'll hopefully continue to get more (and better) applicants over the next 12 months so filling around 620-630 seats should be perfectly achievable.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 23, 2023 16:44:48 GMT
More generally the intention is to stand everywhere in England, Scotland and Wales apart from a small handful of seats where we're supporting an SDP candidate (for better or worse). We've got about 700 applicants at some stage in the process at the moment, of which about 300 are allocated to a constituency already. We'll hopefully continue to get more (and better) applicants over the next 12 months so filling around 620-630 seats should be perfectly achievable. Is there any pattern to the SDP allocated seats (don’t needs names)?
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jul 23, 2023 17:52:21 GMT
More generally the intention is to stand everywhere in England, Scotland and Wales apart from a small handful of seats where we're supporting an SDP candidate (for better or worse). We've got about 700 applicants at some stage in the process at the moment, of which about 300 are allocated to a constituency already. We'll hopefully continue to get more (and better) applicants over the next 12 months so filling around 620-630 seats should be perfectly achievable. Is there any pattern to the SDP allocated seats (don’t needs names)? I’m not sure although presumably one of them will be where their Leeds councillor will be standing.
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 23, 2023 19:44:02 GMT
In the absence of actual Ref candidates to vote for, where is that astonishingly high Ref vote going to go? almost entirely 2019 Tory, of the 100 weighted reform respondents that gave a previous intention 91 said Tory If they succeed in getting most of them back it puts the Tories on mid 30s making things a lot more interesting.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 24, 2023 12:20:37 GMT
almost entirely 2019 Tory, of the 100 weighted reform respondents that gave a previous intention 91 said Tory If they succeed in getting most of them back it puts the Tories on mid 30s making things a lot more interesting. I think most of us have them being in the low to mid-thirties come rhe next election anyway, so pretty much added in. I think Reform will be lucky to get 3% or 4%, unless Farage comes back but, even win that eventuality, I don't see much more than 4%.
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 5, 2023 19:05:15 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 5, 2023 19:17:59 GMT
40 has to be lowest labour score for a while
Edit: since September
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Post by batman on Aug 5, 2023 19:51:51 GMT
not borne out in other polls. That of course doesn't necessarily mean it's wrong.
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Post by grumpyguy on Aug 5, 2023 21:19:41 GMT
Opinium consistently have the lowest figure for Labour and the highest for Reform. I suspect that's not a coincidence; their methodology may produce this, for example by inflating the likelihood of elderly white men to turn out to vote, while deflating that of women or younger voters, at least as compared with other pollsters. They may be right but I prefer to go with the consensus.
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Post by robert1 on Aug 6, 2023 5:57:21 GMT
Opinium consistently have the lowest figure for Labour and the highest for Reform. I suspect that's not a coincidence; their methodology may produce this, for example by inflating the likelihood of elderly white men to turn out to vote, while deflating that of women or younger voters, at least as compared with other pollsters. They may be right but I prefer to go with the consensus. This is an issue all pollsters are trying to tackle. The great unknown is the large group of Tory 2019 voters who are currently 'don't knows'. They will vote in a General Election. Many probably contributed to the abnormally low turnouts in Somerton and Selby by not voting. Given the results in the recent Parliamentary by-elections and elsewhere the Reform figure appears way off.
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Post by woollyliberal on Aug 6, 2023 8:08:15 GMT
I suspect that Reform being high (across the board) is a symptom of former Tory voters' disaffection with the Conservative Party. While some say they'll vote Labour or Lib Dem, and some say they won't vote, others currently say they'll vote for reform. Many of them will, but for others it's just their current state of mind.
When an election comes, it will bring some focus to the matter. Some of the disaffected will change their mind. Some will choose to vote for a party that will unseat their Tory MP. Some will go back to the Tories to minimise the incoming Labour government. A vote for reform would do neither, so will seem less attractive than it does now.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 6, 2023 9:25:41 GMT
Opinium consistently have the lowest figure for Labour and the highest for Reform. I suspect that's not a coincidence; their methodology may produce this, for example by inflating the likelihood of elderly white men to turn out to vote, while deflating that of women or younger voters, at least as compared with other pollsters. They may be right but I prefer to go with the consensus. This is an issue all pollsters are trying to tackle. The great unknown is the large group of Tory 2019 voters who are currently 'don't knows'. They will vote in a General Election. Many probably contributed to the abnormally low turnouts in Somerton and Selby by not voting. Given the results in the recent Parliamentary by-elections and elsewhere the Reform figure appears way off. Will they, all of them? In reality, this is yet another unknowable factor. As you will recall, a non-negligible number of previous Tory voters stayed at home in 1997.
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Post by batman on Aug 6, 2023 10:34:19 GMT
I suspect that Reform being high (across the board) is a symptom of former Tory voters' disaffection with the Conservative Party. While some say they'll vote Labour or Lib Dem, and some say they won't vote, others currently say they'll vote for reform. Many of them will, but for others it's just their current state of mind. When an election comes, it will bring some focus to the matter. Some of the disaffected will change their mind. Some will choose to vote for a party that will unseat their Tory MP. Some will go back to the Tories to minimise the incoming Labour government. A vote for reform would do neither, so will seem less attractive than it does now. well yes to a certain extent, but there are bound to be voters who can't bring themselves to vote Labour but will happily enough vote for Reform, Reclaim or other rightist alternatives to the Tories knowing full well that it will help the Tories lose the seat to Labour, or in some cases the Lib Dems; therefore they will have protested against the government without having had to vote for the main opposition party. Indeed there are several members of this forum whose thinking is something akin to this.
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Post by bridgyoldboy on Aug 6, 2023 16:54:42 GMT
Opinium consistently have the lowest figure for Labour and the highest for Reform. I suspect that's not a coincidence; their methodology may produce this, for example by inflating the likelihood of elderly white men to turn out to vote, while deflating that of women or younger voters, at least as compared with other pollsters. They may be right but I prefer to go with the consensus. Didn't they change their methodology about 12 months ago which depressed Labour's lead by 6-8 percentage points?
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 6, 2023 19:46:13 GMT
I suspect that Reform being high (across the board) is a symptom of former Tory voters' disaffection with the Conservative Party. While some say they'll vote Labour or Lib Dem, and some say they won't vote, others currently say they'll vote for reform. Many of them will, but for others it's just their current state of mind. When an election comes, it will bring some focus to the matter. Some of the disaffected will change their mind. Some will choose to vote for a party that will unseat their Tory MP. Some will go back to the Tories to minimise the incoming Labour government. A vote for reform would do neither, so will seem less attractive than it does now. well yes to a certain extent, but there are bound to be voters who can't bring themselves to vote Labour but will happily enough vote for Reform, Reclaim or other rightist alternatives to the Tories knowing full well that it will help the Tories lose the seat to Labour, or in some cases the Lib Dems; therefore they will have protested against the government without having had to vote for the main opposition party. Indeed there are several members of this forum whose thinking is something akin to this. I'll be honest such thoughts have crossed my mind
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Post by batman on Aug 6, 2023 21:07:11 GMT
Well several people who are not Labour sympathizers on this forum have expressed a desire for the Tories to lose, and they mean to Labour. Indeed some spokespeople for the Reform Party these days appear to be more actively hostile to the Tories than they are towards Labour. When Bob Spink was either in or close to UKIP he tended to exude that vibe, too.
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