maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 11, 2023 15:47:18 GMT
Hopefully Labour reads this instead of listening to focus groups full of middle class people.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 12, 2023 8:12:17 GMT
It could well be temporary, but if Labour & the other opposition parties can successfully establish a narrative that the Tories are a complete disunited rabble it could be longer term. The Tories are doing a pretty good job of establishing that narrative all by themselves. hard to argue with that one.
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Opinium
Jun 24, 2023 19:06:44 GMT
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jun 24, 2023 19:06:44 GMT
I believe this is the first 10%+ we’ve scored in a national (rather than Wales or Red Wall) poll. Happy days!
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 24, 2023 19:25:39 GMT
Greens and Reform look too high there. LDs too low.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2023 19:39:26 GMT
you're right there (at least, about the Lib Dems & Reform - not sure the Greens are that much too high) though the overall Labour lead is, unlike their previous poll, very much in line with the current average. I will eat my hat & various other articles of clothing if Reform outpoll the Liberal Democrats in the forthcoming general election.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 24, 2023 19:43:04 GMT
At the GE I expect the Greens and Reform to poll circa 3% each. The SNP rating of 2% is the lowest I can recall too.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 24, 2023 19:52:51 GMT
The average of the last 20 polls for the Lib Dems is 10.7%. The margin of error for a poll fraction this size and a sample size of 2000 is 1.33%, so 19 out of 20 polls should be in the range 9.37% - 12.03%. This 8% is outside that range, as is Ipsos' 13%.
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Opinium
Jun 24, 2023 20:31:48 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 24, 2023 20:31:48 GMT
The greens are looking a more serious force. I don't see any gains at the next GE but I wouldn't rule anything out after that.
Plus if labour are going to win the next election with a three digit majority why are green voters going to bother with tactical voting
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CatholicLeft
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Opinium
Jun 24, 2023 20:40:33 GMT
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 24, 2023 20:40:33 GMT
The greens are looking a more serious force. I don't see any gains at the next GE but I wouldn't rule anything out after that. Plus if labour are going to win the next election with a three digit majority why are green voters going to bother with tactical voting They will be oart of the tactical voting rhat leads to a Labour majority - I doubt it will be three digit, hence the need to tactically vote.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2023 21:07:53 GMT
In my borough, the fact that the Tories are not in with a chance in the great majority of wards now does not stop tactical voting. People tend not to consider the overall picture in a borough, or a general election, all that much in many cases. They think "my preferred party doesn't have a chance" and then "Labour/the Liberal Democrats have a realistic chance of beating the Tories, and indeed nobody else can do so" and they vote tactically, even if the Lib Dems are heading for a landslide victory in that borough, and even if Labour is heading for landslide victory nationally, or in a particular borough etc. In my case, the knowledge that the Tories can't win my constituency (and my ward, if you look at the 2022 voting figures) is a useful argument against those who decry me for NOT voting tactically but instead voting for my preferred party.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 24, 2023 21:42:45 GMT
The greens are looking a more serious force. I don't see any gains at the next GE but I wouldn't rule anything out after that. Plus if labour are going to win the next election with a three digit majority why are green voters going to bother with tactical voting They will be oart of the tactical voting rhat leads to a Labour majority - I doubt it will be three digit, hence the need to tactically vote. I thought the same until Tories decided the next general election should be a series of by elections
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 24, 2023 23:22:45 GMT
Greens and Reform look too high there. LDs too low. Not sure I agree. Lib Dems and Greens are basically in their margin of error. Reform is interesting. There is no evidence in any actual election that REFUK have any support apart from polling. Given the influence of Cambridge Analytica and Dominic Cummings in the EU referendum and the 2019 general election is there a 5% share of voters who are in their social media sphere - and believing the various tropes they find there? I assume the 'stop the boats' bit of Sunak's mantra and his continued support of the appalling Braverman is because they think they can get this 5% or so back into the Tory camp.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 2, 2023 10:21:34 GMT
Do we know who the "independent" is in this poll?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 2, 2023 10:26:40 GMT
Presumably Gareth Mackey, the Flitwick councillor and Chair of Central Bedfordshire council, who has announced his candidature.
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Post by andrewp on Jul 8, 2023 22:54:57 GMT
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 43% (-1) CON: 28% (+3) LDEM: 9% (-) GRN: 6% (-1) REF: 8% (+1)
via @opiniumresearch, 05 - 07 Jul
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Post by andrewp on Jul 22, 2023 19:09:52 GMT
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 42% (-1) CON: 25% (-3) LDEM: 11% (+2) REF: 10% (+2) GRN: 6% (-)
via @opiniumresearch, 19 - 21 Jul
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 22, 2023 20:09:17 GMT
Westminster voting intention: LAB: 42% (-1) CON: 25% (-3) LDEM: 11% (+2) REF: 10% (+2) GRN: 6% (-) via @opiniumresearch, 19 - 21 Jul In the absence of actual Ref candidates to vote for, where is that astonishingly high Ref vote going to go?
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Post by andrewp on Jul 22, 2023 20:18:23 GMT
Westminster voting intention: LAB: 42% (-1) CON: 25% (-3) LDEM: 11% (+2) REF: 10% (+2) GRN: 6% (-) via @opiniumresearch, 19 - 21 Jul In the absence of actual Ref candidates to vote for, where is that astonishingly high Ref vote going to go? A chunk to the Conservatives and a bigger chunk to not voting?
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 22, 2023 20:20:30 GMT
Westminster voting intention: LAB: 42% (-1) CON: 25% (-3) LDEM: 11% (+2) REF: 10% (+2) GRN: 6% (-) via @opiniumresearch, 19 - 21 Jul In the absence of actual Ref candidates to vote for, where is that astonishingly high Ref vote going to go? almost entirely 2019 Tory, of the 100 weighted reform respondents that gave a previous intention 91 said Tory
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 22, 2023 21:09:58 GMT
In the absence of actual Ref candidates to vote for, where is that astonishingly high Ref vote going to go? almost entirely 2019 Tory, of the 100 weighted reform respondents that gave a previous intention 91 said Tory I think the Sit On Hands Party has a pretty good shout of scooping up a lot of them.
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