batman
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Post by batman on Apr 15, 2023 20:01:46 GMT
So - 3 polls in a row now show Labour in an increased lead. The previous one was static. Was it just Easter polling being a bit off? There's no particular reason why the Tories would be weaker now than they were 10 or so days ago, although I tend to think that the 4-day "junior" doctors' strike will have done the Tories more harm than good.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Apr 15, 2023 21:27:15 GMT
Westminster voting intention: LAB: 42% (+1) CON: 28% (-2) LDEM: 10% (-) REF: 8% (+1) GRN: 6% (+1) via @opiniumresearch, 12 - 14 Apr Sunak is leading a Tory revival! (Copyright Dan Hodges, John Rentoul etc etc etc). 🙄
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 16, 2023 9:51:09 GMT
Hodges is actually one of the less stupid pundits as far as this is concerned, remarkably.
Ren-tool, however, absolutely adores Sunak as the "heir to Blair" - just as he fawned similarly over Cameron when he was PM.
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adlai52
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Post by adlai52 on Apr 17, 2023 9:17:21 GMT
Hodges is actually one of the less stupid pundits as far as this is concerned, remarkably. Ren-tool, however, absolutely adores Sunak as the "heir to Blair" - just as he fawned similarly over Cameron when he was PM. The similarity is utterly superficial though - in policy terms Sunak and his political instincts are far removed from New Labour. With Cameron it is a little less clear cut, but even there the similarity was always more about rhetoric than actual policy. On Rentoul specifically I have never understood what the internal logic of his perspective actually is.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 17, 2023 11:17:25 GMT
Rentoul still holds a grudge against Starmer because he opposed the Iraq war, I rather suspect.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Apr 29, 2023 19:12:30 GMT
Sunak surge!
Possible outlier? Anyhow still offfttt...
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batman
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Post by batman on Apr 29, 2023 21:16:35 GMT
extremely unusual for Opinium to be giving Labour (at present) its second-highest lead in current polls. Only Omnisis is higher
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2023 9:15:13 GMT
Actually the latest Omnisis (which I don't think has been posted here yet) has the Labour lead at 17%, so even that isn't true.
Yes it looks like an outlier, but we will have to wait and see what polls in the coming week show.
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Post by mattbewilson on May 13, 2023 20:49:11 GMT
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Post by stodge on May 14, 2023 18:45:42 GMT
The data tables are up and they have a useful and reasonably sized sub sample for England.
The VI for that is Labour 45%, Conservative 29.5%, Liberal Democrat 11.5%, Reform 6%, Green 5%, Other 3%
That's a swing of 14.25% from Conservative to Labour in England since the last General Election and an 8.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
On UNS, around 180 Conservative MPs would lose their seats and that doesn't allow for any tactical voting.
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batman
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Post by batman on May 14, 2023 20:04:42 GMT
Essentially, the last Opinium poll was an outlier by their standards, and this one is a return to their norm in recent weeks.
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Post by robert1 on May 28, 2023 7:01:52 GMT
Con 28 (-1) Lab 43 = LD 9 (-2) Grn 7 (+2) Ref 6 = SNP 3 =
Fieldwork 23rd-26th May
From wiki
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 11, 2023 7:27:13 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 41% (-2) CON: 29% (+1) LDM: 11% (+1) GRN: 7% (=) REF: 6% (=) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch, On 7-9 June, Changes w/ 23-26 May.
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Jun 11, 2023 8:46:25 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 11, 2023 8:46:25 GMT
There's also been an opinium poll of 144 marginals for the guardian. Headline figure is Labour 39 (+6) Conservatives 32 (-12). Labour lead in 100 marginals.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 11, 2023 9:26:52 GMT
There's also been an opinium poll of 144 marginals for the guardian. Headline figure is Labour 39 (+6) Conservatives 32 (-12). Labour lead in 100 marginals. That would be a lower swing than the national polls in marginals. I think that the Conservatives might be quite relieved with that Outcome.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2023 9:55:39 GMT
On the other hand, such an outcome (a swing lower in marginals than overall) is not all that likely and they will end up being disappointed in all likelihood if they get their hopes up. Things are not exactly great for the Conservatives at the moment. The last few days have been pretty tumultuous & a poll sampled after these events rather than before them would be of great interest. If they show that the Tories haven't suffered additional damage then the relief can set in a little more.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 11, 2023 10:17:32 GMT
On the other hand, such an outcome (a swing lower in marginals than overall) is not all that likely and they will end up being disappointed in all likelihood if they get their hopes up. Things are not exactly great for the Conservatives at the moment. The last few days have been pretty tumultuous & a poll sampled after these events rather than before them would be of great interest. If they show that the Tories haven't suffered additional damage then the relief can set in a little more. Yes, A lower swing in the marginals is very unlikely, verging on inconceivable. I don’t think that poll can be right if the national polls are right, or vice versa. You’d imagine that events of the last 48 hours will almost certainly knock the Conservatives polling, but whether that is temporary or permanent would be the question.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2023 10:24:33 GMT
It could well be temporary, but if Labour & the other opposition parties can successfully establish a narrative that the Tories are a complete disunited rabble it could be longer term.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 11, 2023 13:07:31 GMT
It could well be temporary, but if Labour & the other opposition parties can successfully establish a narrative that the Tories are a complete disunited rabble it could be longer term. The Tories are doing a pretty good job of establishing that narrative all by themselves.
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Post by stodge on Jun 11, 2023 13:35:56 GMT
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