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Post by stodge on Apr 9, 2024 20:25:27 GMT
Savanta reverting more to type with the highest Conservative share in any poll for nearly three weeks.
To be fair, Savanta ia one of the pollsters which routinely puts the Conservatives higher and Reform lower than other pollsters but still within that bloc of 35-37% and still outpointed by the Labour/LD/Green bloc which is at 56-60% across the polls. Last time, the split was 48-47 so this poll at 37-56 has a 10% swing away from the Conservatives/Reform. The headline lead of 15 points is still a 14% swing from December 2019.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 17, 2024 10:16:49 GMT
LAB: 43% (+1)
CON: 25% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)
RFM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @savanta_UK, 12-14 Apr.
Changes w/ 5-7 Apr.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 17, 2024 10:54:18 GMT
Their last poll got certain people a bit over excited, they probably won't be publicising this one as much.
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Post by grumpyguy on Apr 17, 2024 12:50:36 GMT
LAB: 43% (+1) CON: 25% (-2) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 9% (-1) GRN: 4% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Via @savanta_UK, 12-14 Apr. Changes w/ 5-7 Apr. I was initially puzzled by the 6% 'Other' figure - a sudden surge for Plaid, maybe, or is the 'gorgeous George' bandwagon rolling? - but then checked Savanta's methodology. 1. The poll is UK-wide; 2. They only prompt initially for Con, Lab, L/D, SNP, Plaid & other. This seems odd, given that they are polling in Ulster as well, but it helps to explain low figures for Reform and Greens. People who vote for Other are subsequently prompted for Reform, Green and other (again no specific N I parties), which means they are treated as a second preference. I wonder if the Telegraph understood this when they agreed to commission the poll. The combined figure for Tories and RUK doesn't looks out of kilter with other pollsters though. It seems to be the Green figure which is far too low. |
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Post by gibbon on Apr 17, 2024 15:15:17 GMT
No publicity for this poll in the Daily Farage supporting newspapers.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 23, 2024 18:49:33 GMT
LAB: 43% (-)
CON: 27% (+2)
REF: 10% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-)
via @savanta_UK, 19 Apr
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 24, 2024 11:29:15 GMT
I see this latest poll is featured in the Telegraph, presumably this will now be a regular thing until whenever the GE is?
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Apr 24, 2024 11:54:38 GMT
I see this latest poll is featured in the Telegraph, presumably this will now be a regular thing until whenever the GE is? To think they once had the much missed Gallup as their pollster! |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 1, 2024 11:44:52 GMT
Apparently there is a new national poll out by this firm alongside their London mayoral survey.
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Post by woollyliberal on May 1, 2024 13:57:11 GMT
Apparently there is a new national poll out by this firm alongside their London mayoral survey. This one or a newer one? |
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Post by andrewp on May 8, 2024 19:17:51 GMT
LAB: 43% (-1)
CON: 27% (+1)
LDM: 11% (+1)
RFM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 4% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @savanta_UK, 3-5 May.
Changes w/ 26-28 Apr.
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Post by hullenedge on May 14, 2024 18:49:58 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on May 22, 2024 4:42:22 GMT
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Post by andrewp on May 29, 2024 18:33:51 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 44% (+1)
CON: 27% (+1)
LDM: 10% (=)
RFM: 8% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @savanta_UK, 24-26 May.
Changes w/ 17-19 May.
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Post by Yaffles on May 29, 2024 18:59:20 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 44% (+1) CON: 27% (+1) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 8% (-1) GRN: 4% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @savanta_UK, 24-26 May. Changes w/ 17-19 May. My gut instinct tells me this is close to what the final outcome will be . |
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Post by woollyliberal on May 29, 2024 19:41:44 GMT
This poll means we've had a poll from each of the regular pollsters since the election was called. It means we have a fairly clear view of what's happened. The average of the 12 polls since polling day (changes since the 20 previous polls) is:
Lab 44.6 +0.1
Con 24.0 +0.7
Ref 11.2 +0.2
LD 9.6 +0.1
Grn 5.3 -1.1
SNP 2.8 +0.1
Con are up slightly and Green down. Everyone else should be thought of as no change.
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graham
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Post by graham on May 29, 2024 20:11:52 GMT
This poll means we've had a poll from each of the regular pollsters since the election was called. It means we have a fairly clear view of what's happened. The average of the 12 polls since polling day (changes since the 20 previous polls) is: Lab 44.6 +0.1 Con 24.0 +0.7 Ref 11.2 +0.2 LD 9.6 +0.1 Grn 5.3 -1.1 SNP 2.8 +0.1 Con are up slightly and Green down. Everyone else should be though of as no change. Savanta Comres - and Survation - record UK rather than GB data. On a GB basis tonight's poll would be Lab 45 Con 28. |
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Post by woollyliberal on May 29, 2024 20:18:18 GMT
Savanta Comres - and Survation - record UK rather than GB data. On a GB basis tonight's poll would be Lab 45 Con 28. The same applies to the previous polls, so the movement is like for like. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 30, 2024 13:02:14 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 44% (+1) CON: 27% (+1) LDM: 10% (=) RFM: 8% (-1) GRN: 4% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @savanta_UK, 24-26 May. Changes w/ 17-19 May. My gut instinct tells me this is close to what the final outcome will be . No. It will be tighter than 17-points, more like 12-points. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 30, 2024 13:08:58 GMT
My gut instinct tells me this is close to what the final outcome will be . No. It will be tighter than 17-points, more like 12-points.I could live with that! |
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