Savanta/ComRes

[The Bishop]

Polls generally seem to have edged in the wrong direction for the Tories since the holiday period - there was a slight narrowing just before that.

[graham]

Jan 10, 2024 10:51:02 GMT andrewp said:

LAB: 45% (+2)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDM; 10% (=)
RFM: 8% (-1)
GRN: 5% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @savanta_UK, 5-7 Jan
Changes w/ 15-17 Dec.

I believe that Savanta Comres - like Survation - give us UK rather than GB data. The GB equivalent here would be Lab 46% Con 27%.

[batman]

Jan 10, 2024 12:50:09 GMT The Bishop said:

Polls generally seem to have edged in the wrong direction for the Tories since the holiday period - there was a slight narrowing just before that.

there is often a small pro-government swing at Christmas time when people are in a better mood than they are at certain other times of the year. In January people are often facing paying for Christmas and may be less inclined, if they're floating voters, to give the government of the day the benefit of the doubt.

[grumpyguy]

Very little change from end Nov. The average from the 3 polls published so far this week is
C 25, L 45, L/D 10, G 5.5, R 9.5, SNP 3, others 2 (ex N.I.). 8 polls from the last week of November produce
C 25.5, L 45, L/D 10.5, G 5.5, R 9, SNP 3, others 1.5 (again ex N.I.). Has the movement from Con to RUK come to an end, for the moment at least?

[The Bishop]

Jan 10, 2024 14:03:37 GMT batman said:

Jan 10, 2024 12:50:09 GMT The Bishop said:

Polls generally seem to have edged in the wrong direction for the Tories since the holiday period - there was a slight narrowing just before that.

there is often a small pro-government swing at Christmas time when people are in a better mood than they are at certain other times of the year. In January people are often facing paying for Christmas and may be less inclined, if they're floating voters, to give the government of the day the benefit of the doubt.

I wonder if the slight dip in Labour support in late 2023 was Gaza related. If so, this could reverse as it falls out of the news more.

[gibbon]

I very much doubt that Gaza will be an election issue in most parts of the country. It may be in certain areas but faced with another Conservative government I suspect that in only a few areas will it affect the Labour vote. Current Government policy is going down well in those areas where the Corbyn factor was a strong issue last time. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain votes but not enough to sway the election.

[mattbewilson]

Jan 11, 2024 15:36:50 GMT gibbon said:

I very much doubt that Gaza will be an election issue in most parts of the country. It may be in certain areas but faced with another Conservative government I suspect that in only a few areas will it affect the Labour vote. Current Government policy is going down well in those areas where the Corbyn factor was a strong issue last time. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain votes but not enough to sway the election.

as someone who has spent a long time in a seat that was a Tory gain I'm not sure I've seen any evidence that people have an opinion on government policy in Gaza.

Clearly this will be a long war that might be ongoing in an election. Obviously most places won't care. I understand the party are doing internal polling. There is some impact, the party I understand have decided now isn't the time to select in Batley for example. I've been told Hugh Golburne if I've spelled that right is one to watch as a last minute imposition

[robert1]

Little change on last week

Con      27      +1
Lab       44      -1
LD         11     +1
SNP        3      =
Grn        4      -1
Ref         7      -1

Fieldwork 12th-14th

[andrewp]

LAB: 43% (-1)
CON: 29% (+2)
LDM: 10% (-1)
RFM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @savanta_UK, 19-21 Jan.
Changes w/ 12-14 Jan.

[borisminor]

Jan 25, 2024 11:24:20 GMT andrewp said:

LAB: 43% (-1)
CON: 29% (+2)
LDM: 10% (-1)
RFM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @savanta_UK, 19-21 Jan.
Changes w/ 12-14 Jan.

The polling discrepancies between companies are pretty stark. 

[The Bishop]

This one was done before the latest Tory nonsense though.

And also most pollsters have been showing Labour's lead increasing, even if YouGov is at the upper end of that.

[batman]

If there's no logical reason for the Tory lead to go up, it's likely to be random sampling variation & no more. Nothing of any consequence has gone right for the Tories this year.

[gibbon]

Much depends who from their panel takes part in the latest survey. I am a member of two panels.

[afleitch]

They don't immediately prompt for 'other' parties like Greens and Reform. They also squeeze undecideds.

That's where any potential polling error will be, if there is one.

Some pollsters exclude undecideds; unusual when undecideds will often still vote and remain in the sample after you exclude those who say that won't vote. Others treat undecideds based on how those with a similar demographic profile say they will vote.

IIRC, Opinium do this who also show lower Labour leads.

[The Bishop]

The question is whether the assumptions made by those pollsters about undecideds are correct.

What worked there in the previous few elections may not be as reliable this time.

[batman]

they're similar assumptions to those made by Opinium. I share your scepticism. Sometimes in "change" elections undecideds just don't break as they did before.

[andrewp]

LAB: 46% (+3)
CON: 27% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)
RFM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-1)
SNP: 2% (-1)

Via @savanta_UK, 26-28 Jan.
Changes w/ 19-21 Jan.

[hullenedge]

[afleitch]

More of a reversion to the polling earlier in the year but still.

Ouch.

[batman]

If this is not an outlier, the question is whether it was sampled at the worst possible time for Labour, and if so whether things might now improve. We simply don’t know the answer to that yet. If it is not an outlier, there are very obvious limits to its ouchiness. The Labour Party is still in a strong position, just not as overwhelming as in this company’s previous poll.