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Post by batman on Oct 12, 2023 9:26:26 GMT
So, a slight Tory conference bounce, mostly sampled before the Labour Party conference. Still strong for us.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 12, 2023 10:04:34 GMT
..and if you compare it to their poll posted on the previous page on 1 Sept, it's almost identical.
Considering all these polls, in a nutshell, any changes over the last several months have been MoE - I cant see the circumstances which would change things dramatically over the next few months. Following a good (if not great) Labour conference, I think we're now talking about how big/small the Labour majority will be, not whether there will be one.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 12, 2023 10:19:12 GMT
..and if you compare it to their poll posted on the previous page on 1 Sept, it's almost identical. Considering all these polls, in a nutshell, any changes over the last several months have been MoE - I cant see the circumstances which would change things dramatically over the next few months. Following a good (if not great) Labour conference, I think we're now talking about how big/small the Labour majority will be, not whether there will be one. The polls slightly narrowed between about Mar- May this year, then they slightly widened again from Jun- Sep and now they seem to be slightly narrowing again. As the ‘core’ Labour lead is probably about 17% the slight widening and slight narrowing between about 14 and 20 has less impact than if they were fluctuating on a similar scale between say 0-6% leads. I don’t think there’s been much doubt about a Lab majority since Sep 2022. I think the polls will slightly narrow in the next year. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 12, 2023 11:13:38 GMT
I think in the short term there is a good chance the gap slightly widens again, however. This coming winter is unlikely to be good for the Tories - that is one reason why there was chatter (however unrealistic in practice) of Sunak cutting his losses and calling a GE for next month.
Focus groups (yes, I know) done in the last few days have apparently been pretty positive about Starmer and the Labour conference as well.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 19, 2023 11:01:07 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 45% (-1)
CON: 29% (-1)
LDM: 10% (=)
RFM: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-1)
Via @savanta_UK, 13-15 Oct.
Changes w/ 6-8 Oct.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 24, 2023 9:48:44 GMT
Westminster voting intention:
LAB 46% (+1)
CON: 29% (-)
LDEM: 10% (-)
REF: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (+1)
via @savantauk, 20 - 22 Oct
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 24, 2023 12:20:19 GMT
They got this one out a bit quicker than usual.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 7, 2023 11:04:37 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 45% (-1)
CON: 29% (=)
LDM: 11% (+2)
RFM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 3% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via @savanta_UK, 3-5 Nov.
Changes w/ 27-29 Oct.
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Post by gibbon on Nov 7, 2023 15:48:19 GMT
Probably a slight swing from Labour to Liberal Democrats as LDs seek to repeat their gains from 2003 to 2011 from Labour. Not that they are opportunists!
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Post by andrewp on Nov 14, 2023 9:45:56 GMT
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention
Lab 46 (+1)
Con 28 (-1)
LD 10 (-1)
Reform 6 (+1)
Green 4 (+1)
SNP 2 (=)
Other 4 (=)
10-12 November
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 16, 2023 9:51:38 GMT
The poll doesn't show changes but the thread indicates that Labour is retaining the lion's share of their 2019 vote.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 24, 2023 12:45:53 GMT
Note the fieldwork is a week old
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 44% (-2)
CON: 27% (-1)
LDM: 11% (+1)
RFM: 7% (+1)
GRN: 5% (+1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @savanta_UK, 15-17 Nov.
Changes w/ 10-12 Nov.
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 24, 2023 12:53:04 GMT
The poll doesn't show changes but the thread indicates that Labour is retaining the lion's share of their 2019 vote. looking at wiki there has been a small drop in labour and Tories, and small increase in lib Dems and greens |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 30, 2023 10:50:23 GMT
🌹Lab 44 (=)
🌳Con 26 (-1)
🔶LD 11 (=)
➡️Reform 7 (=)
🌍Green 5 (=)
🎗️SNP 3 (=)
⬜️Other 5 (+1)
2,266 UK adults, 24-26 November
(chg 17-19 November)
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Post by andrewp on Dec 6, 2023 10:14:52 GMT
LAB: 43% (-1)
CON: 28% (+2)
LDM: 11% (=)
RFM: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
GRN: 3% (-2)
Via @savanta_UK, 1-3 Dec.
Changes w/ 24-26 Nov.
’smallest’ Labour lead from them since September and lowest Labour share since June
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Post by andrewp on Dec 14, 2023 10:09:05 GMT
Lab 43 (=)
Con 26 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
Reform 9 (+2)
Green 4 (+1)
SNP 3 (=)
Other 4 (=)
2,079 UK adults, 8-10 December
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Post by andrewp on Dec 21, 2023 11:58:51 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 43% (=)
CON: 27% (+1)
LDM: 10% (=)
RFM: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
GRN: 3% (-1)
Via @savanta_UK, 15-17 Dec.
Changes w/ 8-10 Dec.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 21, 2023 12:41:30 GMT
This pollster has been stable for a while in terms of the Labour lead, whilst seeing both them and the Tories drift down slightly.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 10, 2024 10:51:02 GMT
LAB: 45% (+2)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDM; 10% (=)
RFM: 8% (-1)
GRN: 5% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @savanta_UK, 5-7 Jan
Changes w/ 15-17 Dec.
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Post by batman on Jan 10, 2024 12:15:36 GMT
biggest Labour lead since October 4.
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