Savanta/ComRes

[bridgyboy]

Feb 14, 2024 8:48:12 GMT batman said:

If this is not an outlier, the question is whether it was sampled at the worst possible time for Labour, and if so whether things might now improve. We simply don’t know the answer to that yet. If it is not an outlier, there are very obvious limits to its ouchiness. The Labour Party is still in a strong position, just not as overwhelming as in this company’s previous poll.

Not sure about that because Delta Poll is technically more recent being 9th-12th February and shows a slight increased Labour lead of 18%. Savanta/ComRes has tended to show lower Labour leads than other polling organisations.

[batman]

Oh I thought that Deltapoll had been sampled earlier. They are not normally a pollster with a pro-Labour house effect as some others arguably are. Perhaps this is just an outlier then, though it closely follows another one from More in Common.

[The Bishop]

Redfield and Wilton polled in this timeframe as well - so that means two going this way, and two the other way. But the fact the two going the other way reported first has got lobby hacks very excited about "the trend".

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Feb 14, 2024 8:48:12 GMT batman said:

If this is not an outlier, the question is whether it was sampled at the worst possible time for Labour, and if so whether things might now improve. We simply don’t know the answer to that yet. If it is not an outlier, there are very obvious limits to its ouchiness. The Labour Party is still in a strong position, just not as overwhelming as in this company’s previous poll.

Well, as the date shows, it was after the 28 billion u-turn, but before the Rochdale u-turn. We'll have to wait until next week to see the effect of Rochdale, if any.

[gibbon]

If Labour gain Wellingborough and Kingswood then the debate about their problems in Rochdale may not be as significant as those who take a keen interest in politics believe. Most postal voters in both seats will have cast their votes well before the Rochdale revelations were published. By Friday afternoon we will know more.

[afleitch]

Feb 14, 2024 15:30:20 GMT gibbon said:

If Labour gain Wellingborough and Kingswood then the debate about their problems in Rochdale may not be as significant as those who take a keen interest in politics believe. Most postal voters in both seats will have cast their votes well before the Rochdale revelations were published. By Friday afternoon we will know more.

That's the key point.

The public don't really follow the minutae of the press response to the suspensions.

Labour voters (according to YouGov) are 44 to 7 (with a lot of equals or don't knows) more sympathetic to Palestinians in the current conflict.

The public too lean slightly in that direction 26 to 16.

The problem for Labour is more in terms of the narrative. They only get headlines when dropping policies and dropping endorsements. And that's pretty much of their own making.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Feb 14, 2024 15:30:20 GMT gibbon said:

If Labour gain Wellingborough and Kingswood then the debate about their problems in Rochdale may not be as significant as those who take a keen interest in politics believe. Most postal voters in both seats will have cast their votes well before the Rochdale revelations were published. By Friday afternoon we will know more.

Rochdale postal ballots go out tomorrow.

[andrewp]

LAB: 42% (+1)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDM: 10% (-1)
REF: 8% (=)
GRN: 4% (+1)

via @savanta_UK, 16-18 Feb

[hullenedge]

[The Bishop]

The media hysteria over this pollster's survey two weeks ago was beyond ridiculous at the time, but their subsequent findings have just emphasised this.

[hullenedge]

[batman]

what's that, 3 polls sampled since last week's by-election now? 2 showing almost no change, the other a sharp swing from Labour to Conservative.

[timmullen]

@dominicpenna on X

New Savanta poll this morning has the Tories at 25 points — their lowest score with the pollster since Liz Truss’s final week

🌹 LAB 43% (-1)
🔵 CON 25% (-2)
🔶LIB 11% (+1)
🔷 REF 9% (+1)
🟢 GRN 4% (=)

[timmullen]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (+1)
CON: 26% (+1)
RFM: 11% (+2)
LDM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @savanta_UK, 15-17 Mar.
Changes w/ 8-10 Mar.

[The Bishop]

Tories up by a point - call that election Rishi, you know you want to!

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]

[polupolu]

Mar 28, 2024 20:38:19 GMT hullenedge said:

Electoral Calculus (usual caveats):

Lab 476  

Con 84

LD 48

SNP 18

PC 4

Grn 2

Maj 302

[batman]

TBH I think that Electoral Calculus is so widely reviled in this forum that there's no point even posting their predictions/whatever you call them.

[andrewp]

LAB: 42% (-3)
CON: 27% (+3)
LDM: 10% (=)
RFM: 10% (-2)
GRN: 4% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @savanta_UK, 5-7 Apr.
Changes w/ 25-27 Mar.