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Post by Devonian on Aug 18, 2013 16:54:37 GMT
How are UKIP just +1 on this? I thought they got much lower last time? What are they comparing it with? Its +1 compared to their last IoS/Sunday Mirror poll of 14th July. Compared to their last Independent poll on 30th July its +7. Does anyone know it they are using different methodologies for the different polls? |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 18, 2013 18:12:07 GMT
It's just the luck of the dice. Literally.
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Aug 19, 2013 9:25:11 GMT
I think the fortnightly polls are different methodologies - one is telephone and the other is online. Hence the large variation in UKIP. So you really need to compare agaisnt the poll before last.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 19, 2013 10:46:05 GMT
Yep, the Sindie survey is online and the daily paper's by phone. Though this does not invalidate Sibboleth's comment either  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2013 20:02:26 GMT
Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
CON drops 3% to 31 in latest ComRes phone poll for Independent LDs ahead of UKIP for 1st time since Dec See chart pic.twitter.com/Z4oAEWkR2c
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 3, 2013 14:04:31 GMT
Why don't you just give the figures here?
Tony Greaves
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 3, 2013 14:14:35 GMT
Maybe he didn't have them at hand - the tweet he quoted didn't contain them? But for the record, they are Lab37 Con31 LibDem12 UKIP10 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2013 18:03:12 GMT
Anthony Wells anthonyjwellsNew post: ComRes/Sunday Indy - CON 28, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 17 bit.ly/1f49Rii |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2013 18:04:06 GMT
I do wonder why all the other polls show no real change but YG suddenly narrowed ?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 21, 2013 18:08:23 GMT
No idea. But - and this is a general comment rather than a specific one - there's no reason to believe that the polling industry here is any less institutionally corrupt than the U.S polling industry has (repeatedly) been shown to be.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2013 18:11:56 GMT
not sure of that, I think they are all fair minded but obv have different methodologies so why is YG picking up a narrowing, gawd knows when it has been static for so long.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Sept 21, 2013 20:03:34 GMT
we have gained 7%... this looks as dodgy as the last one when we dropped about 7%
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 21, 2013 20:11:50 GMT
not sure of that, I think they are all fair minded but obv have different methodologies so why is YG picking up a narrowing, gawd knows when it has been static for so long. Yes, of course we are fair-minded Neddy.......Grytepipe-Thin and myself are the very models of moral rectitude.......and our polls are inviolate. Where is the brown envelope Grytepipe. |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 21, 2013 20:44:40 GMT
we have gained 7%... this looks as dodgy as the last one when we dropped about 7% You have not gained 7 points you have lost 1 point . YOU CANNOT COMPARE Comres ONLINE polls with Comres TRLEPHONE polls . For whatever reason , the Online Comres polls always find nearly twice as many UKIP voters than their telephone polls . Which is correct I don't know , they both cannot be right nut of course they could both be wrong . |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2013 18:22:09 GMT
Comres/Indy
Labour 37
Con 33 (+2)
LD 11 (-1)
UKIP 11 (+1)
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Post by erlend on Sept 30, 2013 22:45:27 GMT
I assume when the next poll extends the Labour lead to 6% you will announce a massive swing to Labour.
Actually you are right this time, it is still slack water.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 30, 2013 23:04:14 GMT
It does seem to be increasingly odd that there's such a divergence of views between YouGov and other pollsters as to whether there was a conference bounce. Perhaps YouGov's panel is more attuned to politics? Although Miliband's speech got much less critical coverage on TV than in the papers, so that element of the weighting shouldn't theoretically explain it.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2013 10:27:00 GMT
Well, apart from Populus (whose methodology appears questionable to some, as discussed on their thread here) this is the only non-YouGov poll in the past week. Some more surveys last weekend could have been informative as well as interesting.....
And worth pointing out that no other pollster picked up their anti-Labour "blip" the week before last.
(though YG not "filtering" for likelihood to vote could be a factor in both instances?)
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Post by erlend on Oct 1, 2013 12:09:22 GMT
One of the issues I have felt for a while is that people who join a panel (even those who really have no party link!) are probably likely to be much more attuned to politics than the woman on the Clapham Omnibus. So the unlinked ones are much more likely to swing with every story in the news.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2013 18:29:02 GMT
Con 32% (+4)
Lab 35% (-1)
UKIP 16% (-1)
LD 9% (-1)
Others 8% (-1)
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