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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 15, 2013 18:23:12 GMT
Latest ComRes Con 26% (-3) Lab 35% (0) UKIP 19% (0) LD 10% (+2) Others 10% (+1) Reassuring for UKIP after a number of polls put them on 12%. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 25, 2013 8:00:56 GMT
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Post by innocentabroad on Jun 25, 2013 8:22:45 GMT
Perhaps someone would be kind enough to post by how much the incumbent government has recovered in each of recent election campaigns. (I know we are in uncharted territory with both a coalition and a fixed-term Parliament* but I still think it would be interesting.)
*I also wonder how many voters actually know about each of these developments. We tend to suppose that people derive their political views by comparison with Parties, but I do wonder how far that's true. Alternatives include personal votes (perhaps more so at local government level) and framing political debate as "government" versus "opposition".
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Post by russthomas on Jun 26, 2013 13:05:23 GMT
We tend to suppose that people derive their political views by comparison with Parties.
There is a new trend, possibly a consequence of more social networking and wider access to local news media and accurate National Statistics by constituency....
People vote, or answer polls about how they will vote, based upon their reaction to LOCALLY measured factors that get highly visual publicity. Statistics such as Unemployment % have been such a trigger for many decades, but nowadays with ONS statistics very easily accessible by anyone, including journalists, you can easily learn the %, IN YOUR AREA, of New EU immigrants, Old EU and Non EU Immigrants, Deprivation Dimensions, Households suffering Tax Credit Cuts, 16 - 24 year olds unlikely to vote, Pension age activists, GCSE pass rates, adjoining councils votes .... etc. All these are NUMBERS OF INTEREST to many voters, and may well be their major decision basis come 2015.
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Post by erlend on Jun 26, 2013 19:12:27 GMT
There may well be wide access to lots of ststistics. IMPO that doesn't mean that terribly many actually access their local stats.
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Post by Devonian on Jul 13, 2013 12:47:30 GMT
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 13, 2013 13:35:17 GMT
So, The Independent is a local London newspaper then.
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Post by Devonian on Jul 13, 2013 13:42:16 GMT
So, The Independent is a local London newspaper then. I'm guessing the question was designed with the aim of stirring up a lot of 'Boris as Tory leader?' type speculation. |
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Post by erlend on Jul 13, 2013 15:02:01 GMT
I know its circulation is dire. I do wonder if it is also heavily weighted to inside the M25.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on Jul 13, 2013 15:08:59 GMT
UKIP to fall below 15%?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 13, 2013 18:39:50 GMT
ComRes topline figures are
Lab 36% (+1)
C 28% (+2)
UKIP 18% (-1)
L Dem 8% (-2)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 26, 2013 11:57:54 GMT
A new ComRes poll has been referred to elsewhere - any confirmation?
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 30, 2013 21:15:01 GMT
Lab 37% [+1]
Con 34% [+4]
UKIP 12% [-2]
LD 10% [nc]
Others 8% [-2]
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2013 7:07:51 GMT
same pattern as elsewhere, Labour share stable and Tory share up on a declining UKIP share
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2013 13:37:45 GMT
same pattern as elsewhere, Labour share stable and Tory share up on a declining UKIP share Lull before the storm the betting markets still have UKIP getting more votes than Labour come the Euros. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 31, 2013 17:51:22 GMT
same pattern as elsewhere, Labour share stable and Tory share up on a declining UKIP share Lull before the storm the betting markets still have UKIP getting more votes than Labour come the Euros. Which reflects the fact that UKIP supporters are disproportionately more likely to use betting markets than Labour supporters. There's no evidence that they have any predictive power. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2013 21:19:04 GMT
Lull before the storm the betting markets still have UKIP getting more votes than Labour come the Euros. Which reflects the fact that UKIP supporters are disproportionately more likely to use betting markets than Labour supporters. There's no evidence that they have any predictive power. You don't have to support Man Utd to put money on them to win. So that part of your statement is askew. True it has no predictive powers but it certainly says where sentiment is. Putting their money where their mouth is so to speak. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 1, 2013 10:31:46 GMT
Betting on football is a reasonably normal activity. Betting on elections nearly a year before they happen is the mark of an obsessive, and it's rare to be obsessive about something without also having strong opinions on it. If the people putting large bets on UKIP winning the European elections support any other party, I'm a rhinoceros.
And why should it matter where 'sentiment' is? It matters whether that sentiment has any relationship to what the actual result is. Given the tendency towards ramping that supporters of all parties suffer from (and UKIP are the opposite of an exception here) I would be sceptical. Certainly I'll continue to be sceptical unless and until 'sentiment' starts to match polling.
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Post by Devonian on Aug 17, 2013 18:46:38 GMT
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Aug 18, 2013 16:46:27 GMT
How are UKIP just +1 on this? I thought they got much lower last time?
What are they comparing it with?
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