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Post by andrewp on Dec 9, 2019 19:38:56 GMT
A 7pt lead with two days to go? Bad news? 42%, must be awful for them.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Dec 9, 2019 19:45:19 GMT
A 7pt lead with two days to go? Bad news? 42%, must be awful for them. Well the post you quoted put it rather better. Whether a poll is good or bad for either of the two major parties is mostly based upon the difference between their percentages, rather than on what their own percentage figure is. At least as long as they are both polling well above 25%.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Dec 9, 2019 19:52:16 GMT
The nearest equivalent ComRes poll prior to 2017 was
Con 45 Lab 34 LD 8
Still plenty to play for.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2019 20:34:19 GMT
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Dec 9, 2019 20:46:27 GMT
Santa Comedy Results 😂😂. They must be right.
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Richard Allen
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Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 9, 2019 20:51:56 GMT
The vote distribution in this election is incredibly difficult to predict and so trying to extrapolate seats from vote percentages in more difficult than usual.
I could quite easily see a scenario where the Tories loses a lot of votes but very few seats in what I will broadly call "southern remain seats", Labour run up huge majority in their safe inner city / large conurbation seats and the Tories win a whole host of marginal seats broadly speaking "WWC towns in the North and Midlands" with relatively small majorities. In such a case a Tory lead of 5-6 points could result in a landslide.
Obviously there is a possibility, albeit a less likely one in my view, of a reverse of this trend where the Tories get pipped by the Lib Dems in southern seats and narrowly miss out on many of their targets from Labour.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 9, 2019 20:56:08 GMT
The vote distribution in this election is incredibly difficult to predict and so trying to extrapolate seats from vote percentages in more difficult than usual. I could quite easily see a scenario where the Tories loses a lot of votes but very few seats in what I will broadly call "southern remain seats", Labour run up huge majority in their safe inner city / large conurbation seats and the Tories win a whole host of marginal seats broadly speaking "WWC towns in the North and Midlands" with relatively small majorities. In such a case a Tory lead of 5-6 points could result in a landslide. Obviously there is a possibility, albeit a less likely one in my view, of a reverse of this trend where the Tories get pipped by the Lib Dems in southern seats and narrowly miss out on their many of their targets from Labour. Tories could also be piling up WWC votes in places like Sunderland...
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Post by justin124 on Dec 9, 2019 21:05:45 GMT
The vote distribution in this election is incredibly difficult to predict and so trying to extrapolate seats from vote percentages in more difficult than usual. I could quite easily see a scenario where the Tories loses a lot of votes but very few seats in what I will broadly call "southern remain seats", Labour run up huge majority in their safe inner city / large conurbation seats and the Tories win a whole host of marginal seats broadly speaking "WWC towns in the North and Midlands" with relatively small majorities. In such a case a Tory lead of 5-6 points could result in a landslide. Obviously there is a possibility, albeit a less likely one in my view, of a reverse of this trend where the Tories get pipped by the Lib Dems in southern seats and narrowly miss out on their many of their targets from Labour. Tories could also be piling up WWC votes in places like Sunderland... Sunderland South was Tory-held 1953 - 1964.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 9, 2019 21:17:22 GMT
The vote distribution in this election is incredibly difficult to predict and so trying to extrapolate seats from vote percentages in more difficult than usual. I could quite easily see a scenario where the Tories loses a lot of votes but very few seats in what I will broadly call "southern remain seats", Labour run up huge majority in their safe inner city / large conurbation seats and the Tories win a whole host of marginal seats broadly speaking "WWC towns in the North and Midlands" with relatively small majorities. In such a case a Tory lead of 5-6 points could result in a landslide. Obviously there is a possibility, albeit a less likely one in my view, of a reverse of this trend where the Tories get pipped by the Lib Dems in southern seats and narrowly miss out on their many of their targets from Labour. Tories could also be piling up WWC votes in places like Sunderland... Yes, though the Brexit Party might reduce this effect a bit - if they poll about 3% nationally from the seats they're standing in I'd expect they'll get double figures in quite a few places. On the other hand the distribution of Brexit Party candidates might mean the Tories do a lot better in seats they already hold than in target seats, which won't help when they need to make gains. The leakage of Labour votes to the Lib Dems expected at the start of the campaign increasingly looks like it won't materialise as well.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 9, 2019 21:19:23 GMT
Clarification that it used the Remain United methodology for today’s poll ( whatever that is)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2019 21:19:59 GMT
Clarification that it used the Remain United methodology for today’s poll ( whatever that is) RRP i think
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 9, 2019 21:24:47 GMT
The vote distribution in this election is incredibly difficult to predict and so trying to extrapolate seats from vote percentages in more difficult than usual. I could quite easily see a scenario where the Tories loses a lot of votes but very few seats in what I will broadly call "southern remain seats", Labour run up huge majority in their safe inner city / large conurbation seats and the Tories win a whole host of marginal seats broadly speaking "WWC towns in the North and Midlands" with relatively small majorities. In such a case a Tory lead of 5-6 points could result in a landslide. Obviously there is a possibility, albeit a less likely one in my view, of a reverse of this trend where the Tories get pipped by the Lib Dems in southern seats and narrowly miss out on many of their targets from Labour. I tend to agree with that possible analysis. More than ever this time, UNS is pretty meaningless. Another factor is the concerted campaign of certain organisations to get the anti-Tory vote "siphoned to the correct vessel" in terms of tactical voting - now that could all be in vain and change precisely zero seats or it could swing a dozen or more seats to Labour/Lib Dems. In a potentially close election that is another factor that isnt factored into bald opinion poll percentages. With just a tiny swing one way or the other plus the above factors in play could result in either a hung parliament or a 50+ Tory majority.
Definitely too close to call and I will be heavily cutting back on my constituency bets this time around
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 9, 2019 21:29:49 GMT
Tories could also be piling up WWC votes in places like Sunderland... Sunderland South was Tory-held 1953 - 1964. And the Tories won control of Sheffield in 1968. Your point is?
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Dec 9, 2019 22:41:48 GMT
Of course it's also possible that the Tories will enjoy higher swings in "safe" Labour seats from the West Midlands northwards, and in seats they already hold like Mansfield, than in somewhat less safe Labour seats like Bolsover or Blyth Valley. It will tend to be the case that Labour will do a bit better in the constituencies where their ground game is best. But then again, the Tories might end up doing better in the marginals than elsewhere. Mostly it's guesswork sprinkled with wishful thinking. Certainly an unpredictable election - The wait will soon be over.
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Post by redtony on Dec 9, 2019 22:47:44 GMT
Labour will have the advantage on the day in the marginals by having hundreds of workers Getting their supporters to vote in every marginal.
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 9, 2019 23:03:14 GMT
Santa Comedy Results 😂😂. They must be right. Rudolph the red nosed pollster Had a very shiny poll....
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Post by andrewp on Dec 11, 2019 21:03:17 GMT
One to get the Telegraph readers out and voting
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 11, 2019 21:57:48 GMT
Tories will lose if that's correct IMO.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Dec 11, 2019 22:24:49 GMT
One to get the Telegraph readers out and voting This is pretty much the only poll tonight showing a significant closing of the gap. If this proves to be correct, and especially after 2017, the rest of the industry might as well accept defeat and go do something else with their time.
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 11, 2019 22:41:53 GMT
And Survation yet to come.
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