jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 8, 2019 0:45:48 GMT
Careful with that: one constant of polling this election (across all the disagreements as to the exact picture that the different firms have had) is a distinct lack of direct movement between the two main parties any larger than the usual churn. The polls are showing a tiny number of 2017 Tory voters going Labour compared to around 10% (very disproportionately leavers) of 2017 Labour voters going Tory. There’s clearly been more people going one direction than the other.
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middyman
Conservative
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Post by middyman on Dec 8, 2019 7:56:15 GMT
Do you really think people will fall for the same con twice? I will go out on a limb and say that neither May's poor campaign nor Corbyn's good one in 2017 were as significant as an overall tendency of a socially conservative vote (with Brexit as the brand name) coalescing around the Conservatives (UKIP dying the death) and a socially progressive vote (branded Remain) coalescing around Labour, largely in defence. I think hardly anyone was conned, though for a brief period some people thought maybe Corbyn was the messiah after all. This time round there is less enthusiasm for Labour (or more specifically Corbyn/Milne) in the progressive vote, and some unhappiness about Johnson/Cummings among liberal Conservatives, but I don't think the dynamics have changed much. Perhaps Labour are more vulnerable in midlands and north, I can't tell from here. But Johnson is even more toxic than May. So I think we could be looking at something pretty similar, though the tactical voting aspects may have changed a tad. You may be right. I just look at results which were a surprise last time, such as Canterbury, and wonder how many gullible young people were taken in by the promises on loans.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 8, 2019 9:13:59 GMT
Obviously this is anecdotal but this really doesn't feel like the 2017 election did. There seems to be a much higher level of interest in this election than last time and I have been struck in the last week at just how many people, who usually show no interest in politics, have mentioned the election and when pushed say that they will be voting "for Boris". The "get Brexit done" line which is largely treated with contempt by those who are politically knowledgeable is doing the job just fine with those that it is targeting.
It is of course possible that there is once again something going on with the Labour vote that pollsters, canvassers, pundits, etc are all missing but it seems clear to me that there is a greater degree of enthusiasm for voting Conservative than there was in 2017.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 8, 2019 10:06:51 GMT
Obviously this is anecdotal but this really doesn't feel like the 2017 election did. There seems to be a much higher level of interest in this election than last time and I have been struck in the last week at just how many people, who usually show no interest in politics, have mentioned the election and when pushed say that they will be voting "for Boris". The "get Brexit done" line which is largely treated with contempt by those who are politically knowledgeable is doing the job just fine with those that it is targeting. It is of course possible that there is once again something going on with the Labour vote that pollsters, canvassers, pundits, etc are all missing but it seems clear to me that there is a greater degree of enthusiasm for voting Conservative than there was in 2017. Nevertheless I suspect less people will actually vote Conservative than 43%..watch the video on the Guildford thread. There are places where enthusiasm for the Tories is very low, as the population divides on Brexit lines
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 8, 2019 10:18:38 GMT
Careful with that: one constant of polling this election (across all the disagreements as to the exact picture that the different firms have had) is a distinct lack of direct movement between the two main parties any larger than the usual churn. The polls are showing a tiny number of 2017 Tory voters going Labour compared to around 10% (very disproportionately leavers) of 2017 Labour voters going Tory. There’s clearly been more people going one direction than the other. Isn't 10% actually on the high side there?
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 8, 2019 10:19:54 GMT
Obviously this is anecdotal but this really doesn't feel like the 2017 election did. There seems to be a much higher level of interest in this election than last time and I have been struck in the last week at just how many people, who usually show no interest in politics, have mentioned the election and when pushed say that they will be voting "for Boris". The "get Brexit done" line which is largely treated with contempt by those who are politically knowledgeable is doing the job just fine with those that it is targeting. It is of course possible that there is once again something going on with the Labour vote that pollsters, canvassers, pundits, etc are all missing but it seems clear to me that there is a greater degree of enthusiasm for voting Conservative than there was in 2017. Nevertheless I suspect less people will actually vote Conservative than 43%..watch the video on the Guildford thread. There are places where enthusiasm for the Tories is very low, as the population divides on Brexit lines Guildford is hardly a typical seat at this election though. It's one of about 3 constituencies where the LDs have a very good chance of taking a seat from the Tories, along with St Albans and WInchester.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2019 10:21:00 GMT
I must say from my experience on the doorstep in this campaign I don't feel like the kinda responses Ive been getting have been very different from any other election.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 8, 2019 10:22:22 GMT
Nevertheless I suspect less people will actually vote Conservative than 43%..watch the video on the Guildford thread. There are places where enthusiasm for the Tories is very low, as the population divides on Brexit lines Guildford is hardly a typical seat at this election though. It's one of about 3 constituencies where the LDs have a very good chance of taking a seat from the Tories, along with St Albans and WInchester. Its arguably an extreme example of a more general type of seat.
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Post by archaeologist on Dec 8, 2019 10:30:25 GMT
Seems like there are 2 ComRes polls out on the same day, done over the same period for different clients. For Remain United Con 42, Lab 36, LDm 11, Brx 4, Grn 2, Oth 4 For the Sunday Telegraph Con 41, Lab 33, LDm 12, Brx 3, Grn 2, Oth 8 www.comresglobal.com/our-work/poll-archive/
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2019 10:32:49 GMT
Seems like there are 2 ComRes polls out on the same day, done over the same period for different clients. For Remain United Con 42, Lab 36, LDm 11, Brx 4, Grn 2, Oth 4 For the Sunday Telegraph Con 41, Lab 33, LDm 12, Brx 3, Grn 2, Oth 8 www.comresglobal.com/our-work/poll-archive/Posted previously. Different methodology - that producing the larger Conservative lead prompted for the candidates actually standing in the respondent's constituency, while the other (commissioned by Remain United) didn't.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 8, 2019 10:41:59 GMT
Though some of us think the "new" methodology exaggerates the support minor party candidates will actually get on the day - an interesting test case is coming
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 8, 2019 11:25:11 GMT
Obviously this is anecdotal but this really doesn't feel like the 2017 election did. There seems to be a much higher level of interest in this election than last time and I have been struck in the last week at just how many people, who usually show no interest in politics, have mentioned the election and when pushed say that they will be voting "for Boris". The "get Brexit done" line which is largely treated with contempt by those who are politically knowledgeable is doing the job just fine with those that it is targeting. It is of course possible that there is once again something going on with the Labour vote that pollsters, canvassers, pundits, etc are all missing but it seems clear to me that there is a greater degree of enthusiasm for voting Conservative than there was in 2017. Nevertheless I suspect less people will actually vote Conservative than 43%..watch the video on the Guildford thread. There are places where enthusiasm for the Tories is very low, as the population divides on Brexit lines I accept your point but I think there is so much more upside for the Conservatives in leave voting seats than there is downside in remain voting seats. I do expect some big anti-Tory swings in remain voting southern seats but most will occur in seats where the Tory majority is simply too great to be overcome.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 8, 2019 12:15:08 GMT
Nevertheless I suspect less people will actually vote Conservative than 43%..watch the video on the Guildford thread. There are places where enthusiasm for the Tories is very low, as the population divides on Brexit lines I accept your point but I think there is so much more upside for the Conservatives in leave voting seats than there is downside in remain voting seats. I do expect some big anti-Tory swings in remain voting southern seats but most will occur in seats where the Tory majority is simply too great to be overcome. I think you may be right. I am writing from a position of considerable bias but it seems to me that the hostile approach to the LDs by Labour and in the "Remain" media, quite reasonably aimed at squeezing the LD vote, is a two-edged sword as I maintain that apart from a few oddities such as Canterbury in 2017 the most likely places for Conservative losses over Brexit are LD facing. We should pick up a couple but as pepperminttea suggests, to do so in double digit numbers would require a really good LD campaign on which local ground campaigns could build. There have been self-inflicted mistakes in our campaign but mostly "defensive" errors, whereas we have been unable to get out of our half, as it were, when even the most potentially favourable media outlets have been largely hostile, egged on by Labour. The problem with the tactic of squeezing us in response to the Tory squeeze on BxP is that in most Tory-Labour fights there isn't much of an LD vote to squeeze and anyway the mere existence Johnson in No 10 will do that for you. (I'm extrapolating from Stroud on that.)
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 8, 2019 14:55:15 GMT
Careful with that: one constant of polling this election (across all the disagreements as to the exact picture that the different firms have had) is a distinct lack of direct movement between the two main parties any larger than the usual churn. The polls are showing a tiny number of 2017 Tory voters going Labour compared to around 10% (very disproportionately leavers) of 2017 Labour voters going Tory. There’s clearly been more people going one direction than the other. I should maybe have been a little clearer, sorry (it was late). I did not mean that the amount of movement between the two parties is (or, rather, appears to be) the proportionate: one would not expect this given that one is perhaps only slightly down on last time and the other is very clearly so. What I meant is just that the Lab -> Con figure is (at usually slightly under 10%; eyeballing seems to suggest an average of about 8% but we're talking subsamples so you know) a very ordinary one, quite consistent with normal electoral churn.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 8, 2019 21:48:32 GMT
Though some of us think the "new" methodology exaggerates the support minor party candidates will actually get on the day - an interesting test case is coming Yes - there isn't actually any reason to assume that the 'new' methodology is necessarily any more accurate. Or to assume the contrary, of course. The polling industry and its apologists like to give the impression that what they do is PURE DATA SCIENCE, but in reality theories, assumptions and outright guesses play an outsize role in the finishing of the final product.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Dec 8, 2019 22:38:29 GMT
Guildford is hardly a typical seat at this election though. It's one of about 3 constituencies where the LDs have a very good chance of taking a seat from the Tories, along with St Albans and WInchester. it's a bit more than that though. Lewes, St Ives, Richmond Park, Cheadle & surely Finchley & Golders Green have to be included in that. And probably Hazel Grove too. Not saying they'll all be gained though. Cheltenham?
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Post by andrewp on Dec 8, 2019 22:43:51 GMT
it's a bit more than that though. Lewes, St Ives, Richmond Park, Cheadle & surely Finchley & Golders Green have to be included in that. And probably Hazel Grove too. Not saying they'll all be gained though. Cheltenham? St Ives might be a Lib Dem gain, but is obviously not in the same demographic that all those other seats share.
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 9, 2019 19:01:32 GMT
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 9, 2019 19:18:25 GMT
Possibly it might be the methodology used in the Remain United poll, but ComRes' most recent poll taken on the 4th and 5th had a Tory lead of 8. That's two polls today that are bad news for the Tories.
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Dec 9, 2019 19:35:53 GMT
A 7pt lead with two days to go? Bad news?
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