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Post by safc26 on Dec 11, 2019 22:42:15 GMT
The MRP showed a closing of the gap though.
After a gap of two weeks... during which time all the conventional polls showed the same narrowing through a squeezing of LibDem vote by Labour with the Con vote staying pretty static, which is all the MRP showed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2019 22:43:12 GMT
4 points in 6 days 12 point lead to 8
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Post by BossMan on Dec 11, 2019 22:47:54 GMT
One to get the Telegraph readers out and voting This is pretty much the only poll tonight showing a significant closing of the gap. If this proves to be correct, and especially after 2017, the rest of the industry might as well accept defeat and go do something else with their time. Could they be underestimating Labour support by about 5-8%, as most of them did in 2017? In 2015, they predicted a hung parliament and there was a Tory majority. In 2010, they greatly overestimated Lib Dem support. I might actually consider getting rid of the Polls sub board altogether and moving all its threads into General UK Politics if they get it wrong again.
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 11, 2019 22:48:43 GMT
4 points in 6 days 12 point lead to 8 So by polling day another two or three points off the lead which would be close to what the ComRes poll is predicting.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 12, 2019 13:50:38 GMT
Yes, though the Brexit Party might reduce this effect a bit - if they poll about 3% nationally from the seats they're standing in I'd expect they'll get double figures in quite a few places. Forcast top vote shares for the Brexit Party on the recent YouGov MRP poll
Barnsley Central 30% Barnsley East 26% Hull East 23% Doncaster North 22% Hartlepool 22% Easington 21% South Shields 20% Wigan 20%
If any of those is achieved, I'll be shocked. Even if one or two go close.
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Dec 15, 2019 15:53:03 GMT
One to get the Telegraph readers out and voting The LD figure was close!
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Post by stewart64 on Dec 15, 2019 18:23:00 GMT
Pretty awful stuff to be that far out. Tend to think they thought they were being clever and probably over adjusted for the youth vote etc. Misled the entire nation in the process. That poll was given most weight on the election day, even Tories were pessimistic because the Labour outlier was right in 2017.
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Dec 15, 2019 18:35:09 GMT
Pretty awful stuff to be that far out. Tend to think they thought they were being clever and probably over adjusted for the youth vote etc. Misled the entire nation in the process. That poll was given most weight on the election day, even Tories were pessimistic because the Labour outlier was right in 2017. They have decided to drop the Savanta and go with Santa, after the made-up mythical character, to match their performance 😆
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Dec 15, 2019 18:39:17 GMT
If any of those is achieved, I'll be shocked. Even if one or two go close. Actual results Barnsley Central 30.4% Barnsley East 29.2% Hull East 17.8% Doncaster North 20.4% Hartlepool 25.8% Easington 19.5% South Shields 17.0% Wigan 13.2% It would be interesting to see analysis on wether any of those seats would have gone Conservative without a BXP candidate. And wether the majority would have been smaller or bigger without Farges party - then again UKIP might have stood more candidates and performed better, so we may never know. Farage did help with the narrative if nothing else.
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 16, 2019 1:59:42 GMT
Actual results Barnsley Central 30.4% Barnsley East 29.2% Hull East 17.8% Doncaster North 20.4% Hartlepool 25.8% Easington 19.5% South Shields 17.0% Wigan 13.2% It would be interesting to see analysis on wether any of those seats would have gone Conservative without a BXP candidate. And wether the majority would have been smaller or bigger without Farges party - then again UKIP might have stood more candidates and performed better, so we may never know. Farage did help with the narrative if nothing else. It would also be interesting to see analysis the other way around - to what extent did Farage bottling it help the Tories in the seats they already held?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 16, 2019 7:00:29 GMT
It would be interesting to see analysis on wether any of those seats would have gone Conservative without a BXP candidate. And wether the majority would have been smaller or bigger without Farges party - then again UKIP might have stood more candidates and performed better, so we may never know. Farage did help with the narrative if nothing else. It would also be interesting to see analysis the other way around - to what extent did Farage bottling it help the Tories in the seats they already held? 'Bottling it' lol. How much did your 'bottling it' in Lib Dem target seats help them?
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Feb 23, 2020 16:33:51 GMT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Feb 23, 2020 16:44:59 GMT
With this being Comedy Results, one needs to multiply the Conservative figure by 1.06 and the Labour one by 0.89 (cf their poll before the election). So call it 50%-28%. As for an increase in support for the Farageists, LOL.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 23, 2020 16:58:08 GMT
An increase in support for the Brexit Party is surely more down to their GE vote share being significantly reduced by not standing in half the seats, so this is really no change, or a small fall perhaps, but nothing significant.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 23, 2020 17:41:44 GMT
With this being Comedy Results, one needs to multiply the Conservative figure by 1.06 and the Labour one by 0.89 (cf their poll before the election). So call it 50%-28%. As for an increase in support for the Farageists, LOL. All polling companies would've changed their previous vote targets to be inline with the 2019 election results, being the 2017 one before the election, so the polls before and after the election aren't directly comparable. The part of the overestimation of Labour's vote appears to have been a relatively lower turnout than 2017, so by using the 2019 results in their weighting there's a decreased chance of overestimating Labour's vote share simply by reducing the number of previous Labour voters in the sample. A 1% increase for the Brexit Party is probably just sampling variation or, as Tony Otim pointed out, the Brexit Party being able to be selected across the country not just in about half of seats.
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Post by tonygreaves on Feb 24, 2020 16:28:01 GMT
It might of course be only one person.
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on May 26, 2020 10:08:24 GMT
The Cummings debalcle is a disaster for Boris.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 26, 2020 10:47:19 GMT
It's a shame that symbolic, individual acts of hypocrisy are what's required to evaluate government policy rather than rank incompetence and tens of thousands of deaths, but one shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 26, 2020 10:54:44 GMT
Government approval has gone down in the ComRes tracker from +16 to -2 in one day. Boris Johnson's approval ratings have gone down from +19 4 days ago to -1 now. Just in. www.comresglobal.com/"Lads, its Com Res" etc and so forth. The surprising one is Sunak, whose approval is sinking almost as fast as Johnson's albeit from higher peak. Economic worries starting to set in?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 26, 2020 11:02:55 GMT
Pretty sure they altered it (again) after the GE.
Starmer's rating meanwhile is up to plus 12, compared to plus 1 in their last poll.
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