Post by johnloony on Dec 2, 2012 14:41:13 GMT
FWIW, here are my predictions for Croydon North:
Early October: Lab 20,000 Con 5,000 LD 3,000 Green 1,000 UKIP 600 (a)
25th November: Lab 17,100 Con 4,600 LD 1,200 Green 1,100 UKIP 800 Respect 2,100 (b)
28th November: Lab 15,600 Con 4,500 LD 1,000 Green 900 UKIP 1,600 Respect 600 (c)
(a) I wasn't aiming to get such round figures, but I calculated what I thought would be likely swings and assumed a turnout of 35%.
(b) before I saw the postal votes: I assumed people would shift to Respect because of the betting
(c) after I saw the postal votes: I realised UKIP would be third but assumed that Lib Dems would turn out more in the polling stations than in the postal votes.
Early October: Lab 20,000 Con 5,000 LD 3,000 Green 1,000 UKIP 600 (a)
25th November: Lab 17,100 Con 4,600 LD 1,200 Green 1,100 UKIP 800 Respect 2,100 (b)
28th November: Lab 15,600 Con 4,500 LD 1,000 Green 900 UKIP 1,600 Respect 600 (c)
(a) I wasn't aiming to get such round figures, but I calculated what I thought would be likely swings and assumed a turnout of 35%.
(b) before I saw the postal votes: I assumed people would shift to Respect because of the betting
(c) after I saw the postal votes: I realised UKIP would be third but assumed that Lib Dems would turn out more in the polling stations than in the postal votes.
