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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2012 6:39:58 GMT
I'm thinking we could run a little prediction competition for the the three parliamentary by-elections taking place this thursday, on the same rules as for the local authority by-elections
Croydon North
Party Candidate
Monster Raving Loony John Cartwright
National Front Richard Edmonds
Christian Peoples Stephen Hammond
Respect Lee Jasper
Green Shasha Khan
Nine Eleven Was An Inside Job Simon Lane
UKIP Winston McKenzie
Liberal Democrat Marisha Ray
Labour Steve Reed
Young People's Party Robin Smith
Communist Ben Stevenson
Conservative Andrew Stranack
Middlesbrough
Party Candidate
UKIP Richard Elvin
BNP Peter Foreman
no description Mark Heslehurst
Conservative Ben Houchen
Peace Imdad Hussain
Trade Unionist & Socialist John Malcolm
Labour Andy McDonald
Liberal Democrat George Selmer
Rotherham
Party Candidate
Liberal Democrat Michael Beckett
no description (EDL) Clint Bristow
Labour Sarah Champion
UKIP Jane Collins
Independent Simon Copley
Independent Paul Dickson
Trade Unionist & Socialist Ralph Dyson
BNP Marlene Guest
Respect Yvonne Ridley
English Democrats David Wildgoose
Conservative Simon Wilson
Predictions on this thread by close of poll
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 27, 2012 9:52:32 GMT
Croydon North
Lab 47%
Con 22%
Res 11%
UKIP 7%
LD 7%
Grn 3%
CPA 1%
NF 0.8%
OMRLP 0.6%
Com 0.4%
YPP 0.1%
9/11 0.1%
Middlesbrough
Lab 59%
Con 16%
UKIP 10%
LD 7%
BNP 4%
Heslehurst 2%
Peace 1%
TUSC 1%
Rotherham
UKIP 25%
Lab 24%
Res 18%
Con 11%
BNP 6%
ED 5%
Copley 4%
LD 3%
Bristow 2%
Dickson 1%
TUSC 1%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 27, 2012 9:57:43 GMT
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 27, 2012 10:35:10 GMT
Croydon North turnout about 25%
Lab 55.8%
Con 20.9%
UKIP 6.7%
Resp 6.4%
Grn 4.0%
LDm 3.5%
CPP 1.3%
Lny 0.6%
NF 0.4%
Com 0.2%
YPP 0.1%
911 0.1%
Middlesbrough turnout about 20%
Lab 60%
Con 13.8%
UKIP 9.7%
Ind 6.9%
LDm 5.9%
BNP 2.9%
TUSC 0.6%
Peace 0.2%
I'll add Rovrum later, that's the interesting one.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 27, 2012 10:42:34 GMT
Croydon:
Lab 60.6
Con 20.2
LD 6.1
Grn 5.2
UKIP 3.2
Res 2.0
CPA 1.2
OMRLP 0.5
NF 0.4
Comm 0.3
YPP 0.2
9-11 0.1
Middlesbrough:
Lab 61.8
Con 13.4
UKIP 11.5
LD 7.7
BNP 2.5
Peace 1.3
TUSC 1.1
Heslehurst 0.7
Rotherham:
Lab 52.3
UKIP 17.6
Con 6.3
Res 5.3
LD 4.2
BNP 3.8
Copley 3.7
ED 3.4
EDL 1.3
Dickson 1.1
TUSC 1.0
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 27, 2012 11:29:19 GMT
I think these Tory predictions for Croydon are maybe a tad generous........ As for our host's Rotherham predictions - have you been relying on that Respect supporting website as your sole source of information??  |
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 27, 2012 11:38:40 GMT
i'll admit it's more a case of the most plausible UKIP win scenario I could come up with rather than the most likely outcome... But I have a fiver on UKIP to win, so I've got to stick to that. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 27, 2012 12:48:25 GMT
As for our host's Rotherham predictions - have you been relying on that Respect supporting website as your sole source of information?? Respect will be lucky to save their deposit. They are basically an ethno-religious party these days and will receive virtually no support from white voters. Asian voters are probably only about 10% of the electorate in Rotherham, and I'd guess that only a minority of them would actually vote for Respect. I think you're right there, but I do wonder whether everything that's happened might actually drive turnout down whilst Respect voters will turnout, so I'm reckon they will save their deposit. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2012 15:48:37 GMT
i'll admit it's more a case of the most plausible UKIP win scenario I could come up with rather than the most likely outcome... But I have a fiver on UKIP to win, so I've got to stick to that. What odds did you have? Must admit its tempting |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2012 17:23:35 GMT
Croydon North
Lab 56.9%
Con 19.7%
Resp 6.3%
LD 5.7%
Grn 4.0%
UKIP 3.8%
CPA 1.7%
NF 0.9%
MRLP 0.5%
Com 0.3%
YPP 0.1%
NEWAIJ 0.1%
Middlesbrough
Lab 61.9%
Con 12.4%
UKIP 12.2%
LD 5.4%
BNP 4.9%
TUSC 2.2%
Peace 0.5%
ND 0.4%
Rotherham
Lab 45.5%
UKIP 25.7%
Con 8.9%
BNP 5.9%
Resp 4.5%
LD 4.4%
ED 2.7%
TUSC 1.1%
EDL 0.7%
Ind C 0.5%
Ind D 0.2%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 27, 2012 17:47:14 GMT
Wonder what odds you could get on a hat trick of LibDem lost deposits??
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Post by independentukip on Nov 27, 2012 17:53:51 GMT
I'm quite surprised that 2 of the 3 Rotherham predictions so far have Labour on a higher share of the vote than in 2010.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2012 17:58:11 GMT
It shouldn't be given how much higher they are in the national polls compared with then. Mine is only fractionally higher and even Tony's prediction would represent a very poor result for Labour in this seat
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 27, 2012 18:04:43 GMT
His result would be a swing of about 9% to Labour since the GE - "very poor"??  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2012 18:11:49 GMT
It would actually represent a swing to UKIP of about 2% but since it envisages a different second party, swing calculations are fairly irrlevelnt. In terms of vote share it would be Labour's lowest share in Rotherham since 1931 with the single exception of 2010 so I think you could say it would be a poor showing but by all means Bish get your expextation management in early - it looks like you need to here
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 27, 2012 18:19:48 GMT
I know all that, and I expect you know that I know it too. But we are starting from where we are - if things had gone well for Labour here, they might have hoped to get over 60% but I think that ship has already sailed........ Still, I was somewhat surprised to just see Labour quoted at Betfair as 16/1 on to win here. And in by-elections, a win is a win  |
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 27, 2012 18:27:14 GMT
I know all that, and I expect you know that I know it too. But we are starting from where we are - if things had gone well for Labour here, they might have hoped to get over 60% but I think that ship has already sailed........ Still, I was somewhat surprised to just see Labour quoted at Betfair as 16/1 on to win here. And in by-elections, a win is a win The amount of money in the betfair markets is very small at the moment, which is in contrast to Bradford West where it starting piling in on the Tuesday. Hence my assumption that it will be a safe labour hold, but I'm looking at not huge increase in the Labour vote share since 2010 at the moment. I'll do my Rotherham prediction tomorrow. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 27, 2012 19:15:33 GMT
i'll admit it's more a case of the most plausible UKIP win scenario I could come up with rather than the most likely outcome... But I have a fiver on UKIP to win, so I've got to stick to that. What odds did you have? Must admit its tempting 16/1 (I put the money on as soon as the fostering story broke...) |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 27, 2012 20:07:34 GMT
Croydon North Lab 55% Con 19% Res 5% UKIP 8% LD 7% Grn 5% CPA 0.1% NF 0.2% OMRLP 0.3% Com 0.2% YPP 0.1% 9/11 0.1%
Middlesbrough Lab 57% Con 17% UKIP 11% LD 8% BNP 3% Heslehurst 2% Peace 1% TUSC 1%
Rotherham UKIP 10% Lab 53% Res 3% Con 20% BNP 2% ED 3% Copley 2% LD 4% Bristow 1% Dickson 1% TUSC 1%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2012 20:23:11 GMT
From Kris' prediction, just add a swing of 23.3% from Lab to OMRLP and you get: Croydon North OMRLP 23.9% Lab 23.7% Con 22% Res 11% UKIP 7% LD 7% Grn 3% CPA 1% NF 0.8% Com 0.4% YPP 0.1% 9/11 0.1% Well if the Tories can't win here, John would be my second preference. |
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