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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 29, 2012 23:03:04 GMT
Thanks for arranging this, Pete! Let's see how the 'wisdom of crowds' does .... looks pretty good to me, but what do I - or should that be we - know?  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 30, 2012 0:30:54 GMT
Bit surprised that I was one of only three people predicting UKIP to beat the Tories in Middlesbrough.
According to the latest reports they've managed to do it.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 30, 2012 0:32:39 GMT
I'm happy to have been proven wrong on that
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 30, 2012 1:05:43 GMT
Rotherham
RW 16.0
Iain 19.8
tiger 20.1
PW 20.4
bullies 22.4
YL 23.9
Tony 24.2
Ind UKIP 25.4
justlook 31.8
AJS 32.0
RR 49.7
dibs 51.7
KK 59.9 (includes wrong winner faults)
I have not assignd any additional faults to the bullies besides those he automatically gets for not giving a prediction for the various others. There is probably a case for doing so but its too complicated
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 30, 2012 1:25:53 GMT
Middlesbrough
Tony 17.9
tiger 20.6
Ind UKIP 21.9
YL 22.6
PW 22.9
KK 24.2
RR 24.2
justlook 24.8
Iain 27.4
RW 28.7
bullies 30.5
AJS 33.8
dibs 46.4
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 30, 2012 2:01:56 GMT
Croydon North
tiger 9.2
AJS 12.0
Anthony 16.3
Tony 16.3
Iain 19.6
PW 20.3
RW 22.0
RR 23.2
YL 24.0
bullies 24.8
Ind UKIP 27.0
KK 37.2
justlook 50.9
dibs 82.1
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 30, 2012 2:03:59 GMT
So the overall scores
tiger 49.9
Tony 58.5
PW 63.6
RW 66.6
Iain 66.8
YL 70.6
Ind UKIP 74.2
AJS 77.8
bullies 77.8
RR 97.1
justlook 107.5
KK 121.3
dibs 180.3
Anthony 216.3
Well done to Tiger on quite a clear victory and a top 3 finish in all contests
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Post by anthony on Nov 30, 2012 6:35:36 GMT
that'll teach me to only predict 1/3  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 9:02:59 GMT
A few lucky guesses and the UKIP factor helped me a lot.  |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 30, 2012 9:39:36 GMT
Congratulations to Tiger.
I'll take second after coming rock bottom in the Bradford West contest. I was also pretty consistent in guessing the majorities in the election game, being more or less a thousand votes out in all 3.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 30, 2012 10:17:49 GMT
Congratulations to Tiger. Can't say I'd noticed him on the forum until now. Maybe he might consider entering the local BE competition if he hasn't already.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 30, 2012 17:20:57 GMT
Tiger has been a frequent participant in previous prediction comnpetitions
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 22:45:52 GMT
Will probably enter the weekly contests from January again.
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 1, 2012 0:36:49 GMT
Congratulations to Tiger. I'll take second after coming rock bottom in the Bradford West contest. I was also pretty consistent in guessing the majorities in the election game, being more or less a thousand votes out in all 3. Yes, Tony, I have informally added up the Election Game scores for these three byelections and reckon you are certainly in the top 10 out of 75 entrants, maybe 7th or so. I was actually about 100 votes ahead of you in that contest, but then it was on different lines - just the numerical majorities. That did of course involve a turnout calculation too. John Loony beat us both over all the six autumn parliamentary byelections ... not so nutty after all ....  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 1, 2012 2:06:43 GMT
I had a look at the election game but it appeared that I would be in something akin to the position that Hempie was in here this week had I entered. It will be worthwhile for me to become involved in the new year or something
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 1, 2012 2:12:51 GMT
Looks like Rotherham Council haven't managed to provide clarity on the result itself: I'm sure the returning officer said "9,866" but the website says "9,966": www.rotherham.gov.uk/electionresultsThe numbers add up to 21,450; there were 46 spoilt votes, and the number of ballot papers issued was 21,496. Therefore it seems that 9,966 is correct. Otherwise, there would be a discrepancy of 100. If this is the case then the effect on this contest wpould be that Iain would move ahead of Robert into 4th place and the bullies would move into 9th place ahead of Andy |
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Post by the_bullies on Dec 1, 2012 19:18:37 GMT
I did notice the small adjustment in the figures & percentages on Wikipedia & the Bbc website it just makes the result look that marginally better from our point of view.
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Post by thirdchill on Dec 2, 2012 2:25:37 GMT
The election game results are now up on the website www.electiongame.co.uk/Final results were based on both the 15th Nov and 29th Nov. Very pleased with 5th overall. And some of the predictions were fun to read. The same person put a respect majority in rotherham of 10,000 and a respect majority in croydon north of 8,000. Either that person is taking the piss or they have been seriously taken in by Bradford West. |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
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Post by Rural Radical on Dec 2, 2012 8:10:00 GMT
I think did ok. I finished nearer the top than the bottom. A bit harder to predict a vote majority than a percentage.
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Post by the_bullies on Dec 2, 2012 9:52:18 GMT
Im 43rd not too bad but keep overestimating the turnout in my predictions. % wise Im more accurate but when you put it into majorities you need to get the turnout estimate accurate. Where I went wrong previously was Bradford West prediction I got that one wrong completly! but in the political betting market there were clues there, I just chose to ignore them! blind ignorance doesnt work on guesstimating!
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