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Post by independentukip on Nov 27, 2012 22:40:24 GMT
My predictions:
Croydon North
0.4 Monster Raving Loony
3.2 National Front
1.5 Christian Peoples
10.0 Respect
1.6 Green
0.1 Nine Eleven Was An Inside Job
7.8 UKIP
4.5 Liberal Democrat
61.4 Labour
0.1 Young People's
0.2 Communist
9.2 Conservative
Middlesbrough
9.6 UKIP
5.7 BNP
0.2 Heslehurst
13.5 Conservative
1.6 Peace
1.2 Trade Unionist & Socialist
59.8 Labour
8.4 Liberal Democrat
Rotherham
4.7 Liberal Democrat
0.2 Bristow
37.0 Labour
25.4 UKIP
2.0 Copley
0.1 Dickson
1.6 Trade Unionist & Socialist
5.9 BNP
12.3 Respect
3.4 English Democrats
7.4 Conservative
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 27, 2012 23:57:48 GMT
Croydon North
0.3 Monster Raving Loony
2 National Front
1.5 Christian Peoples
9 Respect
2 Green
0.1 Nine Eleven Was An Inside Job
7 UKIP
5 Liberal Democrat
60.3 Labour
0.1 Young People's
0.3 Communist
12.4 Conservative
Middlesbrough
8 UKIP
6 BNP
0.3 Heslehurst
12.7 Conservative
1 Peace
2 Trade Unionist & Socialist
64 Labour
6 Liberal Democrat
Rotherham
4 Liberal Democrat
0.2 Bristow
45.7 Labour
17 UKIP
1 Copley
0.1 Dickson
2 Trade Unionist & Socialist
8 BNP
8 Respect
8 English Democrats
6 Conservative
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 28, 2012 9:39:57 GMT
Rotherham (turnout about 30%)
46.8% Lab
17.2% UKIP
10.7% Con
7% Resp
6.7% Eng Dem
5.7% BNP
2.1% LDm
1.9% Ind Copley
1.0% TUSC
0.8% Ind Bristow
0.1% Ind Dickson
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2012 11:58:45 GMT
Croydon North 3.0 Monster Raving Loony 0.8 National Front 1.5 Christian Peoples 20.8 Respect 3.0 Green 0.1 Nine Eleven Was An Inside Job 9.8 UKIP 3.2 Liberal Democrat 51.7 Labour 0.1 Young People's 0.1 Communist 5.9 Conservative Middlesbrough 16.6 UKIP 1.6 BNP 0.2 Heslehurst 8.5 Conservative 1.6 Peace 1.2 Trade Unionist & Socialist 65.9 Labour 4.4 Liberal Democrat Rotherham 3.2 Liberal Democrat 0.2 Bristow 37.0 Labour 25.4 UKIP 2.0 Copley 0.1 Dickson 1.6 Trade Unionist & Socialist 2.7 BNP 17 Respect 3.4 English Democrats 7.4 Conservative Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=predictions&action=display&thread=1158&page=2#ixzz2DW8VIYn5 |
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Post by the_bullies on Nov 28, 2012 18:19:43 GMT
Rotherham
Lab 49%
Ukip 18%
Con 8%
LibD 4%
Resp 6%
Bnp 7%
Ind Cop 1%
TUSC 1%
EngD 4%
Bristow 1%
Dickinson 1%
Maj 6000 Turnout below 40%
Middlesborough
Lab 61%
Con 11%
LibD 5%
Ukip 8%
Resp 6%
Bnp 4%
TUSC 3%
Peace 1%
Heslehurst 1%
Maj 8000 Turnout 30%
Croydon North
Lab 63%
Con 10%
LibD 5%
Ukip 9%
Resp 6%
Loony 2%
NF 2%
Comm 2%
Young People 1%
Majority 11000 Turnout 30%
My forecast is for the LibDems to lose 3 deposits & the Tories 1.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 28, 2012 18:37:41 GMT
Your last forecast is at odds with the individual forecasts of Conservative share in each of the by-elections
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 28, 2012 18:41:39 GMT
Also you will need to separate out the 'others' - there is no facility for awarding points for combinations of candidates so you would end up with faults accruing to the value of the percentages gained by all candidates for whom you have made no specific prediction
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 28, 2012 22:49:52 GMT
Just to clarify the rules here are identical to those for the weekly/m,onthly prediction competition on local authority by-elections. For the benefit of those who may not have particpated in that, It is necessary to predict a % for each of the candidates standing and 'faults' are awarded by calculating the difference between the actual result and the predicted result for each candidate. An additional 10 faults are awarded for predicting a wrong winner but aside from this there are no points awarded for size of majority, turnout or any other variable (although there is clearly no harm in predicting these things for the fun of it). Additional faults are also added if the total for all candidates does not add up to 100% (for example if they added up to 99% then a fault of 1 would be incurred). Faults are also incurred if percentage shares are given to candidates who aren't standing. In the above case not only would the bullies incur 6 faults for incorrectly identifying a Respect candidate in Middlesbrough, but there would be faults for each of those he has called 'Others', because there is no candidate in any of these by-elections standing under the description of 'Other'
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 29, 2012 1:22:27 GMT
Croydon North:
Labour, Steve Reed 60.7%
Conservative, Andrew Stranack 17.4%
Respect, Lee Jasper 6.3%
UKIP, Winston McKenzie 5.2%
Liberal Democrat, Marisha Ray 4.4%
Green, Shasha Khan 2.4%
Christian Peoples, Stephen Hammond 1.1%
National Front, Richard Edmonds 1.0%
Young People's Party, Robin Smith 0.7%
Monster Raving Loony, John Cartwright 0.3%
Communist, Ben Stevenson 0.3%
Nine Eleven Was An Inside Job, Simon Lane 0.2%
Middlesbrough:
Labour, Andy McDonald 54.8%
UKIP, Richard Elvin 19.7%
Conservative, Ben Houchen 11.8%
BNP, Peter Foreman 4.9%
Liberal Democrat, George Selmer 4.8%
Trade Unionist & Socialist, John Malcolm 2.2%
Peace, Imdad Hussain 1.2%
no description, Mark Heslehurst 0.6%
Rotherham:
Labour, Sarah Champion 39.5%
UKIP, Jane Collins 31.7%
Conservative, Simon Wilson 7.9%
Respect, Yvonne Ridley 5.4%
BNP, Marlene Guest 5.1%
Liberal Democrat, Michael Beckett 4.1%
English Democrats, David Wildgoose 2.1%
Trade Unionist & Socialist, Ralph Dyson 1.2%
no description, (EDL) Clint Bristow 1.0%
Independent, Simon Copley 1.0%
Independent, Paul Dickson 1.0%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2012 7:05:06 GMT
Any idea on when the three counts will start? Are they thru the night or will they leave it till morning?
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 29, 2012 8:26:40 GMT
Any idea on when the three counts will start? Are they thru the night or will they leave it till morning? I'm assuming they're all night counts because I haven't heard to the contrary. By contrast, two weeks ago I saw on several sites people mentioning that Corby would be a day count. |
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Post by anthony on Nov 29, 2012 10:05:13 GMT
Just one from me:
Croydon North
0.2 Monster Raving Loony
0.5 National Front
1.0 CPA
7.0 Respect
2.0 Green
0.1 Nine Eleven Was An Inside Job
6.0 UKIP
7.0 Liberal Democrat
61.0 Labour
0.1 Young People's
0.1 Communist
15.0 Conservative
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Nov 29, 2012 11:03:17 GMT
Any idea on when the three counts will start? Are they thru the night or will they leave it till morning? I'm assuming they're all night counts because I haven't heard to the contrary. By contrast, two weeks ago I saw on several sites people mentioning that Corby would be a day count. Press Association confirms they will all count overnight. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2012 19:55:26 GMT
Croydon North
Turnout 43.4%
Labour 64.3
Conservative 15.7
Respect 5.4
Lib Dems 4.8
UkIP 3.4
Greens 2.9
CPA 1.2
Loony 0.8
National F0.6
Communist 0.4
9/11 0.3
Youth 0.2
Middlesborough
Turnout 35.3%
Labour 59.9
UKIP 13.3
Conservative 8.5
BNP 6.7
Lib Dems 5.6
Indie 3.5
Peace 1.7
TUSC 0.8
Rotherham
Turnout 37.1%
Labour 43.5
UKIP 20.7
Respect 12.3
Conservative 9.4
BNP 5.6
Lib Dems 3.7
Eng Dems 2.2
Tusc 1.6
Copley 0.5
Dickson 0.3
Bristow 0.2
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
Member is Online
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Post by YL on Nov 29, 2012 20:12:57 GMT
Might as well have a go. NB though I'm "local" I don't have any inside knowledge on Rotherham.
Croydon North
Lab 58%
Con 12%
Respect 10%
UKIP 7%
Lib Dem 6%
Green 4%
OMRLP 1.0%
CPA 0.6%
NF 0.6%
Comm 0.5%
YPP 0.2%
NEWAIJ 0.1%
Middlesbrough
Lab 59%
UKIP 14%
Con 10%
Lib Dem 6%
BNP 5%
Heslehurst 4%
Peace 1%
TUSC 1%
Rotherham
Lab 38%
UKIP 22%
Respect 16%
Con 7%
BNP 7%
Lib Dem 3%
Eng Dem 3%
Copley 1%
TUSC 1%
Bristow 1%
Dickson 1%
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Nov 29, 2012 21:59:27 GMT
Croydon North
Monster Raving Loony John Cartwright 1%
National Front Richard Edmonds 2%
Christian Peoples Stephen Hammond 1%
Respect Lee Jasper 1%
Green Shasha Khan 2%
Nine Eleven Was An Inside Job Simon Lane 1%
UKIP Winston McKenzie 12%
Liberal Democrat Marisha Ray 13%
Labour Steve Reed 32%
Young People's Party Robin Smith 1%
Communist Ben Stevenson 1%
Conservative Andrew Stranack 33%
Middlesbrough
UKIP Richard Elvin 10%
BNP Peter Foreman 5%
no description Mark Heslehurst 1%
Conservative Ben Houchen 22%
Peace Imdad Hussain 3%
Trade Unionist & Socialist John Malcolm 4%
Labour Andy McDonald 48%
Liberal Democrat George Selmer 17%
Rotherham
Liberal Democrat Michael Beckett 17%
no description (EDL) Clint Bristow 1%
Labour Sarah Champion 46%
UKIP Jane Collins 12%
Independent Simon Copley 2%
Independent Paul Dickson 2%
Trade Unionist & Socialist Ralph Dyson 3%
BNP Marlene Guest 3%
Respect Yvonne Ridley 1%
English Democrats David Wildgoose 2%
Conservative Simon Wilson 11$
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 29, 2012 22:04:14 GMT
Cutting it rather fine there dibs! Right i'll collate all these and report back shortly
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 29, 2012 22:07:07 GMT
His score for the LibDems in Rotherham as well  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 29, 2012 22:09:30 GMT
Sorry Bish second time today I've left you with an orphan post. I thouhgt maybe I was being a bit strong :/
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 29, 2012 22:35:02 GMT
So we have 14 full sets of predictions with Anthony joining in only the Croydon North contest. Croydon NOrth has 13 Labour holds with dibs predicting a Conservative gain. Of the 13 Labour holds 11 have the Conservatives 2nd with IndependentUKIP and Justlooking predicting Respect in 2nd Average prediction Lab 56.3% Con 16.6% Resp 7.7% UKIP 6.9% LD 5.9% Grn 3.2% CPA 1.1% NF 1.0% MRLP 0.7% Com 0.3% YPP 0.2% NEWAIJ 0.2% Middlesbrough has 13 Labour holds with 9 Conservative 2nd places. Justlooking, AndyAJS, tiger and YL have UKIP 2nd Dibs incurs 10 additional faults for adding to 110 and the bullies has 6 faults for an imaginary Respect candidate Average prediction Lab 59.4% Con 13.1% UKIP 11.8% LD 7.0% ND 1.8% BNP 4.2% TUSC 1.5% Peace 1.3% Rotherham has 12 Labour holds with Kris predicting a UKIP gain. 10 have UKIP in 2nd with Dibs going for the LDs and Rural Radical the Conservatives Average prediction Lab 42.9% UKIP 20.6% Con 9.3% Resp 8.9% BNP 5.2% LD 4.7% ED 3.7% Ind C 1.8% TUSC 1.4% EDL 0.9% Ind D 0.7% Good luck to everyone (especially Kris  ) |
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