Parliamentary by-elections 29th November

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm thinking we could run a little prediction competition for the the three parliamentary by-elections taking place this thursday, on the same rules as for the local authority by-elections

Croydon North

Party Candidate
Monster Raving Loony John Cartwright
National Front Richard Edmonds
Christian Peoples Stephen Hammond
Respect Lee Jasper
Green Shasha Khan
Nine Eleven Was An Inside Job Simon Lane
UKIP Winston McKenzie
Liberal Democrat Marisha Ray
Labour Steve Reed
Young People's Party Robin Smith
Communist Ben Stevenson
Conservative Andrew Stranack

Middlesbrough

Party Candidate
UKIP Richard Elvin
BNP Peter Foreman
no description Mark Heslehurst
Conservative Ben Houchen
Peace Imdad Hussain
Trade Unionist & Socialist John Malcolm
Labour Andy McDonald
Liberal Democrat George Selmer

Rotherham

Party Candidate
Liberal Democrat Michael Beckett
no description (EDL) Clint Bristow
Labour Sarah Champion
UKIP Jane Collins
Independent Simon Copley
Independent Paul Dickson
Trade Unionist & Socialist Ralph Dyson
BNP Marlene Guest
Respect Yvonne Ridley
English Democrats David Wildgoose
Conservative Simon Wilson

Predictions on this thread by close of poll

[AdminSTB]

Croydon North
Lab 47%
Con 22%
Res 11%
UKIP 7%
LD 7%
Grn 3%
CPA 1%
NF 0.8%
OMRLP 0.6%
Com 0.4%
YPP 0.1%
9/11 0.1%

Middlesbrough
Lab 59%
Con 16%
UKIP 10%
LD 7%
BNP 4%
Heslehurst 2%
Peace 1%
TUSC 1%

Rotherham
UKIP 25%
Lab 24%
Res 18%
Con 11%
BNP 6%
ED 5%
Copley 4%
LD 3%
Bristow 2%
Dickson 1%
TUSC 1%

[Tony Otim]

[iainbhx]

Croydon North turnout about 25%

Lab 55.8%
Con 20.9%
UKIP 6.7%
Resp 6.4%
Grn 4.0%
LDm 3.5%
CPP 1.3%
Lny 0.6%
NF 0.4%
Com 0.2%
YPP 0.1%
911 0.1%

Middlesbrough turnout about 20%

Lab 60%
Con 13.8%
UKIP 9.7%
Ind 6.9%
LDm 5.9%
BNP 2.9%
TUSC 0.6%
Peace 0.2%

I'll add Rovrum later, that's the interesting one.

[Tony Otim]

Croydon:
Lab 60.6
Con 20.2
LD 6.1
Grn 5.2
UKIP 3.2
Res 2.0
CPA 1.2
OMRLP 0.5
NF 0.4
Comm 0.3
YPP 0.2
9-11 0.1


Middlesbrough:
Lab 61.8
Con 13.4
UKIP 11.5
LD 7.7
BNP 2.5
Peace 1.3
TUSC 1.1
Heslehurst 0.7


Rotherham:
Lab 52.3
UKIP 17.6
Con 6.3
Res 5.3
LD 4.2
BNP 3.8
Copley 3.7
ED 3.4
EDL 1.3
Dickson 1.1
TUSC 1.0

[The Bishop]

I think these Tory predictions for Croydon are maybe a tad generous........

As for our host's Rotherham predictions - have you been relying on that Respect supporting website as your sole source of information??

[AdminSTB]

i'll admit it's more a case of the most plausible UKIP win scenario I could come up with rather than the most likely outcome... But I have a fiver on UKIP to win, so I've got to stick to that.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 27, 2012 12:12:03 GMT @trident said:

Nov 27, 2012 11:29:19 GMT The Bishop said:

As for our host's Rotherham predictions - have you been relying on that Respect supporting website as your sole source of information??

Respect will be lucky to save their deposit. They are basically an ethno-religious party these days and will receive virtually no support from white voters. Asian voters are probably only about 10% of the electorate in Rotherham, and I'd guess that only a minority of them would actually vote for Respect.

I think you're right there, but I do wonder whether everything that's happened might actually drive turnout down whilst Respect voters will turnout, so I'm reckon they will save their deposit.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 27, 2012 11:38:40 GMT AdminSTB said:

i'll admit it's more a case of the most plausible UKIP win scenario I could come up with rather than the most likely outcome... But I have a fiver on UKIP to win, so I've got to stick to that.

What odds did you have? Must admit its tempting

[Pete Whitehead]

Croydon North

Lab 56.9%
Con 19.7%
Resp 6.3%
LD 5.7%
Grn 4.0%
UKIP 3.8%
CPA 1.7%
NF 0.9%
MRLP 0.5%
Com 0.3%
YPP 0.1%
NEWAIJ 0.1%

Middlesbrough

Lab 61.9%
Con 12.4%
UKIP 12.2%
LD 5.4%
BNP 4.9%
TUSC 2.2%
Peace 0.5%
ND 0.4%

Rotherham

Lab 45.5%
UKIP 25.7%
Con 8.9%
BNP 5.9%
Resp 4.5%
LD 4.4%
ED 2.7%
TUSC 1.1%
EDL 0.7%
Ind C 0.5%
Ind D 0.2%

[The Bishop]

Wonder what odds you could get on a hat trick of LibDem lost deposits??

[independentukip]

I'm quite surprised that 2 of the 3 Rotherham predictions so far have Labour on a higher share of the vote than in 2010.

[Pete Whitehead]

It shouldn't be given how much higher they are in the national polls compared with then. Mine is only fractionally higher and even Tony's prediction would represent a very poor result for Labour in this seat

[The Bishop]

His result would be a swing of about 9% to Labour since the GE - "very poor"??

[Pete Whitehead]

It would actually represent a swing to UKIP of about 2% but since it envisages a different second party, swing calculations are fairly irrlevelnt. In terms of vote share it would be Labour's lowest share in Rotherham since 1931 with the single exception of 2010 so I think you could say it would be a poor showing but by all means Bish get your expextation management in early - it looks like you need to here

[The Bishop]

I know all that, and I expect you know that I know it too.

But we are starting from where we are - if things had gone well for Labour here, they might have hoped to get over 60% but I think that ship has already sailed........

Still, I was somewhat surprised to just see Labour quoted at Betfair as 16/1 on to win here. And in by-elections, a win is a win

[iainbhx]

Nov 27, 2012 18:19:48 GMT The Bishop said:

I know all that, and I expect you know that I know it too.

But we are starting from where we are - if things had gone well for Labour here, they might have hoped to get over 60% but I think that ship has already sailed........

Still, I was somewhat surprised to just see Labour quoted at Betfair as 16/1 on to win here. And in by-elections, a win is a win

The amount of money in the betfair markets is very small at the moment, which is in contrast to Bradford West where it starting piling in on the Tuesday. Hence my assumption that it will be a safe labour hold, but I'm looking at not huge increase in the Labour vote share since 2010 at the moment. I'll do my Rotherham prediction tomorrow.

[AdminSTB]

Nov 27, 2012 15:48:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nov 27, 2012 11:38:40 GMT AdminSTB said:

i'll admit it's more a case of the most plausible UKIP win scenario I could come up with rather than the most likely outcome... But I have a fiver on UKIP to win, so I've got to stick to that.

What odds did you have? Must admit its tempting

16/1 (I put the money on as soon as the fostering story broke...)

[Rural Radical]

Croydon North Lab 55% Con 19% Res 5% UKIP 8% LD 7% Grn 5% CPA 0.1% NF 0.2% OMRLP 0.3% Com 0.2% YPP 0.1% 9/11 0.1%

Middlesbrough Lab 57% Con 17% UKIP 11% LD 8% BNP 3% Heslehurst 2% Peace 1% TUSC 1%

Rotherham UKIP 10% Lab 53% Res 3% Con 20% BNP 2% ED 3% Copley 2% LD 4% Bristow 1% Dickson 1% TUSC 1%

[Deleted]

From Kris' prediction, just add a swing of 23.3% from Lab to OMRLP and you get:

Croydon North
OMRLP 23.9%
Lab 23.7%
Con 22%
Res 11%
UKIP 7%
LD 7%
Grn 3%
CPA 1%
NF 0.8%
Com 0.4%
YPP 0.1%
9/11 0.1%

Well if the Tories can't win here, John would be my second preference.