Parliamentary defections

[Davıd Boothroyd]

No, because the Conservative whips have still got three sitting days to move the writ and have polling day on 9 October.

[Devonian]

According to the Telegraph UKIP have been doing private polling in Mark Reckless' constituency

Representatives of Nigel Farage’s Eurosceptic party have been trying to encourage MPs to switch allegiance after Douglas Carswell’s shock defection last week.

Conservative MPs have been presented with polling that claims to show that they are more likely to be re-elected if they quit the party.

Adam Holloway, the Conservative MP for Gravesham, said he had been approached four times in the past week alone by a Ukip MEP, it can be disclosed. Gordon Henderson, the MP for Sittingbourne and Sheppey, has also been approached and asked if he wants to “do the same as Douglas Carswell”.

A polling company has been making calls in the constituency of Mark Reckless, a Eurosceptic Tory MP and friend of Mr Carswell, asking people if they would be more likely to vote for him if he were a member of Ukip. [...]

Michael Gove, the new Chief Whip, was seen yesterday having a private lunch with Mr Reckless, who is thought to be one of the MPs considering defecting.

The former education secretary was seen with the MP for Rochester and Strood, in the Strangers’ Dining Room in the Commons.

Mr Reckless has publicly denied that he is planning to join Ukip.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11076517/Ukip-mounts-huge-defection-campaign-to-convince-Tories-and-Labour-supporters-to-switch-parties.html

[neilm]

Perhaps Pimpernal can comment as they're all in his neck of the woods...

[Pimpernal]

Sept 5, 2014 1:56:58 GMT neilm said:

Perhaps Pimpernal can comment as they're all in his neck of the woods...

There's a very strong feeling amongst most Kent branches that actually, we're not that excited about defecting Tory MPs coming in to be UKIP candidates because they think they've a better chance of winning as UKIP than Tory... It's all a bit late in the day, and following Carswell's decision - which was a lot braver being the first to jump and then finding out he had loads of support for doing so - lacks a degree of integrity.

Had they done it before the Euroelections we would probably have been a lot more positive... but now - well frankly we don't feel that we need them, and most of us have already got PPCs in place that we have been campaigning for.

Of course, some branches may feel differently but if so, have yet to say as much...

[froome]

Sept 9, 2014 8:12:31 GMT Pimpernal said:

Sept 5, 2014 1:56:58 GMT neilm said:

Perhaps Pimpernal can comment as they're all in his neck of the woods...

There's a very strong feeling amongst most Kent branches that actually, we're not that excited about defecting Tory MPs coming in to be UKIP candidates because they think they've a better chance of winning as UKIP than Tory... It's all a bit late in the day, and following Carswell's decision - which was a lot braver being the first to jump and then finding out he had loads of support for doing so - lacks a degree of integrity.

Had they done it before the Euroelections we would probably have been a lot more positive... but now - well frankly we don't feel that we need them, and most of us have already got PPCs in place that we have been campaigning for.

Of course, some branches may feel differently but if so, have yet to say as much...

Just out of interest Pimp, does UKIP have a policy on whether defecting MPs are automatically selected to stand as candidate? Given what happened at Clacton, it doesn't look like the local party had any say in the matter? If a Kentish MP does defect, who will make that decision about whether they automatically become the candidate, even if another candidate has already been selected?

[carlton43]

Sept 9, 2014 8:39:15 GMT froome said:

Sept 9, 2014 8:12:31 GMT Pimpernal said:

There's a very strong feeling amongst most Kent branches that actually, we're not that excited about defecting Tory MPs coming in to be UKIP candidates because they think they've a better chance of winning as UKIP than Tory... It's all a bit late in the day, and following Carswell's decision - which was a lot braver being the first to jump and then finding out he had loads of support for doing so - lacks a degree of integrity.

Had they done it before the Euroelections we would probably have been a lot more positive... but now - well frankly we don't feel that we need them, and most of us have already got PPCs in place that we have been campaigning for.

Of course, some branches may feel differently but if so, have yet to say as much...

Just out of interest Pimp, does UKIP have a policy on whether defecting MPs are automatically selected to stand as candidate? Given what happened at Clacton, it doesn't look like the local party had any say in the matter? If a Kentish MP does defect, who will make that decision about whether they automatically become the candidate, even if another candidate has already been selected?

I don't think parties could possibly have 'a policy' on how to treat defections because there are so many imponderables and special circumstances around each situation.

I think most parties would have emergency centralist powers to cover by-elections called, with or without a candidate in place. But usually it would be a given to endorse the in-place candidate. Why do anything else?........Unless there is a defection agreed and accepted. Then it is obvious the defector is preferred other the in-place man. Unfortunate for that candidate but the mechanics of winning the seat and the party grand strategy must come first. 

[Devonian]

Sept 9, 2014 8:12:31 GMT Pimpernal said:

Sept 5, 2014 1:56:58 GMT neilm said:

Perhaps Pimpernal can comment as they're all in his neck of the woods...

There's a very strong feeling amongst most Kent branches that actually, we're not that excited about defecting Tory MPs coming in to be UKIP candidates because they think they've a better chance of winning as UKIP than Tory... It's all a bit late in the day, and following Carswell's decision - which was a lot braver being the first to jump and then finding out he had loads of support for doing so - lacks a degree of integrity.

Had they done it before the Euroelections we would probably have been a lot more positive... but now - well frankly we don't feel that we need them, and most of us have already got PPCs in place that we have been campaigning for.

Of course, some branches may feel differently but if so, have yet to say as much...

I think that the Carswell defection and by election has done a lot of good to UKIP, and that can be seen in opinion polls already. Farage has been stating for years that winning a by election has been part of his plan to boost UKIP before the 2015 election. By calling the election Carswell has in effect said that he is joining UKIP and straight away is seeking to do something important for UKIP and try to prove himself as a campaigner for UKIP.

I think if UKIP got more defectors I think that there would rapidly be diminishing marginal returns. Firstly you do not want too many recent Tory MPs joining because then you will then look like the Tory party mark 2, which I don't think is what UKIP voters want at all. Secondly although UKIP has had a definite boost from this defection and expected by election result this may not be so true of further defections. Further defections would not have the same impact and further by elections would not be necessary before the next election and indeed could be both expensive and risky. Any defecting MP who didn't call a by election would have even less positive impact. Various commentators made the point after Carswell called the by election that by doing so he was setting the bar very high for future potential defectors. I think though that that's exactly as it should be.

UKIP could well benefit from more MPs defections however I think more than a very limited number could potentially do more harm than good.

[Andrew_S]

Sept 9, 2014 23:51:54 GMT Devonian said:

Sept 9, 2014 8:12:31 GMT Pimpernal said:

There's a very strong feeling amongst most Kent branches that actually, we're not that excited about defecting Tory MPs coming in to be UKIP candidates because they think they've a better chance of winning as UKIP than Tory... It's all a bit late in the day, and following Carswell's decision - which was a lot braver being the first to jump and then finding out he had loads of support for doing so - lacks a degree of integrity.

Had they done it before the Euroelections we would probably have been a lot more positive... but now - well frankly we don't feel that we need them, and most of us have already got PPCs in place that we have been campaigning for.

Of course, some branches may feel differently but if so, have yet to say as much...

I think that the Carswell defection and by election has done a lot of good to UKIP, and that can be seen in opinion polls already. Farage has been stating for years that winning a by election has been part of his plan to boost UKIP before the 2015 election. By calling the election Carswell has in effect said that he is joining UKIP and straight away is seeking to do something important for UKIP and try to prove himself as a campaigner for UKIP.

I think if UKIP got more defectors I think that there would rapidly be diminishing marginal returns. Firstly you do not want too many recent Tory MPs joining because then you will then look like the Tory party mark 2, which I don't think is what UKIP voters want at all. Secondly although UKIP has had a definite boost from this defection and expected by election result this may not be so true of further defections. Further defections would not have the same impact and further by elections would not be necessary before the next election and indeed could be both expensive and risky. Any defecting MP who didn't call a by election would have even less positive impact. Various commentators made the point after Carswell called the by election that by doing so he was setting the bar very high for future potential defectors. I think though that that's exactly as it should be.

UKIP could well benefit from more MPs defections however I think more than a very limited number could potentially do more harm than good.

That analysis is correct IMO. The best thing for UKIP from now on may be for any defecting MPs to wait until the start of the general election campaign and then announce that they are now supporting the already-selected UKIP candidate in their constituency.

[finsobruce]

I'm not sure that UKIP could afford to be that fussy. An MP in the house is worth two who might not be elected. But it is getting late for that sort of thing and local parties would, as Pimp says, be very put out. They will have candidates who think they have a good chance of getting elected anyway, thanks very much. On the other hand local parties are going to have to get used to taking things on the chin if it is to the greater benefit of the party. There were probably some Labour defectors whom the SDP didn't want but it would have looked odd to deny them selection. In the case of Michael O'Halloran they were lucky that boundary changes meant he lost out to another defector, and while he was annoyed and stood on his own account, he couldn't really say he'd been stitched up. Unless I've misunderstood presumably any Tory MP taking up andyajs's suggestion of endorsing their UKIP rival after the election had been called would be planning to retire? The late Alec Kellaway did it of course, but then he was never going to win anyway...

[Devonian]

Sept 10, 2014 7:10:01 GMT finsobruce said:

I'm not sure that UKIP could afford to be that fussy. An MP in the house is worth two who might not be elected. But it is getting late for that sort of thing and local parties would, as Pimp says, be very put out. They will have candidates who think they have a good chance of getting elected anyway, thanks very much. On the other hand local parties are going to have to get used to taking things on the chin if it is to the greater benefit of the party. There were probably some Labour defectors whom the SDP didn't want but it would have looked odd to deny them selection. In the case of Michael O'Halloran they were lucky that boundary changes meant he lost out to another defector, and while he was annoyed and stood on his own account, he couldn't really say he'd been stitched up. Unless I've misunderstood presumably any Tory MP taking up andyajs's suggestion of endorsing their UKIP rival after the election had been called would be planning to retire? The late Alec Kellaway did it of course, but then he was never going to win anyway...

With regards being fussy I think there is a reason that UKIP needs to have a certain level of fussiness right now that the SDP didn't have. The SDP never pretended to be anything other than a breakaway from the mainstream of the Labour Party. Its leaders were all figures from the mainstream of the Labour leadership. UKIP on the other hand get their votes for being an anti-establishment party, as well as specifically for not being the Tory party.  A small number of further defectors could potentially bring net benefits to UKIP (and realistically it isn't going to be more than one or two more if that) but their Net benefits would be significantly lower that Carswell's for the reasons I gave.

If UKIP were to get 30 defectors the way the SDP did I think that would be damaging to UKIP because then it would look like the Tory Party mark 2 which would damage its whole electoral appeal. UKIP isn't the SDP.

[finsobruce]

Sept 10, 2014 7:58:33 GMT Devonian said:

Sept 10, 2014 7:10:01 GMT finsobruce said:

I'm not sure that UKIP could afford to be that fussy. An MP in the house is worth two who might not be elected. But it is getting late for that sort of thing and local parties would, as Pimp says, be very put out. They will have candidates who think they have a good chance of getting elected anyway, thanks very much. On the other hand local parties are going to have to get used to taking things on the chin if it is to the greater benefit of the party. There were probably some Labour defectors whom the SDP didn't want but it would have looked odd to deny them selection. In the case of Michael O'Halloran they were lucky that boundary changes meant he lost out to another defector, and while he was annoyed and stood on his own account, he couldn't really say he'd been stitched up. Unless I've misunderstood presumably any Tory MP taking up andyajs's suggestion of endorsing their UKIP rival after the election had been called would be planning to retire? The late Alec Kellaway did it of course, but then he was never going to win anyway...

With regards being fussy I think there is a reason that UKIP needs to have a certain level of fussiness right now that the SDP didn't have. The SDP never pretended to be anything other than a breakaway from the mainstream of the Labour Party. Its leaders were all figures from the mainstream of the Labour leadership. UKIP on the other hand get their votes for being an anti-establishment party, as well as specifically for not being the Tory party.  A small number of further defectors could potentially bring net benefits to UKIP (and realistically it isn't going to be more than one or two more if that) but their Net benefits would be significantly lower that Carswell's for the reasons I gave.

If UKIP were to get 30 defectors the way the SDP did I think that would be damaging to UKIP because then it would look like the Tory Party mark 2 which would damage its whole electoral appeal. UKIP isn't the SDP.

Of course there are differences, and of course the SDP clearly came from the mainstream of the Labour party - but they launched themselves as a party that was putting aside old labels and would appeal to all sorts of voters. 

I don't think anyone thinks there will be 30 defectors (although never say never) but they couldn't very well be rejected en masse if they did appear. And if as a party you want to take power you can't be an insurgent movement forever - although a changed electoral system would change this quite a bit. 

[carlton43]

Sept 10, 2014 1:01:58 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 9, 2014 23:51:54 GMT Devonian said:

I think that the Carswell defection and by election has done a lot of good to UKIP, and that can be seen in opinion polls already. Farage has been stating for years that winning a by election has been part of his plan to boost UKIP before the 2015 election. By calling the election Carswell has in effect said that he is joining UKIP and straight away is seeking to do something important for UKIP and try to prove himself as a campaigner for UKIP.

I think if UKIP got more defectors I think that there would rapidly be diminishing marginal returns. Firstly you do not want too many recent Tory MPs joining because then you will then look like the Tory party mark 2, which I don't think is what UKIP voters want at all. Secondly although UKIP has had a definite boost from this defection and expected by election result this may not be so true of further defections. Further defections would not have the same impact and further by elections would not be necessary before the next election and indeed could be both expensive and risky. Any defecting MP who didn't call a by election would have even less positive impact. Various commentators made the point after Carswell called the by election that by doing so he was setting the bar very high for future potential defectors. I think though that that's exactly as it should be.

UKIP could well benefit from more MPs defections however I think more than a very limited number could potentially do more harm than good.

That analysis is correct IMO. The best thing for UKIP from now on may be for any defecting MPs to wait until the start of the general election campaign and then announce that they are now supporting the already-selected UKIP candidate in their constituency.

That is certainly the best strategy and would have a major impact in the immediate run up to election day, plus wrong-footing and making a critical problem for the party holding the seat to have emergency parachute in of an unknown and massive disruption to the local party. It would be Win-Win! On a rolling programme of say 5-such cases, the effect would be amazing, day by day, especially if there could be one non Conservative.

[Devonian]

Interesting speech from Farage at the weekend.




He speaks about the importance of the Clacton by election. He also mentions the Heywood and Middleton by election saying this will be 'fighting on two fronts' for UKIP. He adds that "there are some who speculate that there may even be other MPs who defect to us, so we could be fighting a war on even more than two fronts"
.

I would interpret the suggestion that further defections would lead to 'new fronts'  to mean that defecting MPs would be expected to trigger new by elections. I think this sheds some new light on Farage's earlier comment that whether or not there would be further MP defections would depend on the result of the Clacton by election. It would be no good either for an MP defecting or for UKIP if an MP defected and then triggered a by election that was questionably winnable so a decision to defect may depend not just on whether UKIP win in Clacton but by how much.

[Deleted]

John Wilson MSP (Central Scotland): SNP to Independent.

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2014 18:03:20 GMT @benjamin said:

John Wilson MSP (Central Scotland): SNP to Independent.

NATO, defense policy etc

www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/exclusive-snp-msp-john-wilson-to-resign-from-party-1-3550341

Assume he'll be off to the Green/Indy group

[Deleted]

I have to confess that I hadn't heard of him until today.

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2014 18:18:06 GMT @benjamin said:

I have to confess that I hadn't heard of him until today.

Nor had I and he's one of the 07' intake too. Almost 60 at the next election, but then again so is John Finnie and he might(it could be more than that? I'm not up on the gossip) be hopping to the Greens for 2016..

[Deleted]

UKIP say they have delayed selecting a candidate for the general election in Kettering as they continue a bid to tempt the sitting MP to change sides.


The Eurosceptic party hopes Conservative MP Philip Hollobone can be persuaded to follow colleague Douglas Carswell in making the switch.

UKIP gave its backing to Mr Hollobone and Mr Carswell at the last election in 2010, and although the party originally said it hoped to start the candidate selection process following May’s European elections, it now says it will wait until the New Year to give Mr Hollobone more time to defect.

Outgoing local party chairman Cllr Jonathan Bullock said: “The ball is very much in Philip’s court.

“The options are there for him. His views are exactly those of UKIP, they are not those of David Cameron.

“He got elected on a joint manifesto, now we are asking him to make the final move.

“It’s not a political journey in terms of philosophy – he’s absolutely on side [with us].”

Cllr Bullock said he was hopeful he could persuade Mr Hollobone but, should those overtures not be successful, said: “UKIP’s intention is to select candidates for all seats.”

Mr Hollobone has again reiterated his hope a similar deal to 2010 can be struck with UKIP, pointing out that in 2010 its leader said the party would be “potty if we kept Philip out of the House of Commons”.

Source: www.northantstelegraph.co.uk/news/ukip-hope-to-persuade-kettering-mp-to-defect-1-6318270

[Devonian]

Daily Mail article on possible defectors

Senior Ukip figures are claiming two more Tory MPs are ‘in the bag’ and will be unveiled as defectors within days.

To the alarm of Conservative HQ, Ukip party secretary Matthew Richardson has boasted privately that two turncoats have agreed to switch parties, according to two separate sources.

Mr Richardson has told colleagues an announcement could be made as early as Ukip’s conference, which opens today in Doncaster.

One potential defector is said to be a Tory MP who is to stand down at next year’s general election and would sit for Ukip for the next seven months. The other is said to be a Tory currently planning to run again in 2015.

Likely Ukip targets include Chris Kelly and Brian Binley, two right-wingers who have announced that they are standing down as MPs. Others thought to be have been identified by Ukip as potential targets are Gordon Henderson, Mark Reckless and Martin Vickers. [...]

Asked about his reported remarks, Mr Richardson said: ‘I may have predicted that there will be two more people [ready to defect].

'But I don’t know for certain. I can’t talk to you about this for reasons that will no doubt be clear. When Douglas Carswell announced his defection it took us all by surprise.’[...]

All of the MPs denied any intention of joining Ukip.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2768798/Ukip-claims-two-Tories-ready-defect-Party-secretary-says-MPs-unveiled-days.html

[Tony Otim]

Is that the sound of frantic back-pedalling I hear?