neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2014 23:14:28 GMT
Perhaps now is when he felt comfortable doing it?
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2014 23:16:51 GMT
At county level? Harwich has only got one county council seat, and Labour have held it in every recent year except 2009. The district council results were considerably less good, but that basically came down to personality clashes, which are going to be more damaging in small towns where everybody knows everybody. Didn't Harwich have two seats prior to 2009? I'm sure it did when I was there because canvass returns were in two. Perhaps Parkeston was in another division? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2014 23:19:25 GMT
These days rural east includes the north of Clacton itself and the Parkeston area of Harwich. Pay attention Neil! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2014 23:28:17 GMT
Technically Parkeston isn't part of Harwich (it's parished with Ramsey), although obviously on any rational definition it's part of the town.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 29, 2014 8:40:46 GMT
I didn't know that, you'd never guess would you.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 29, 2014 9:15:02 GMT
Can I canvass people's views on the timing of this defection? If you were Farage, why would you like Carswell to defect at the end of August in preference to earlier this month (and have the by-election just before tory conference) or hold the defection over until just before conference? I'd be grateful if anyone could suggest what tactical thinking might lie behind the choice. sent while on the move somewhere Because it's been a few weeks since Nige has seen his picture in the papers and he was starting to get withdrawal symptoms?  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 29, 2014 9:43:32 GMT
I didn't know that, you'd never guess would you. Apparently combined as one parish way back in 1900. I suspect the GNR had fallen out with Harwich and wanted to prevent it being absorbed into the town. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 29, 2014 10:12:14 GMT
Can I canvass people's views on the timing of this defection? If you were Farage, why would you like Carswell to defect at the end of August in preference to earlier this month (and have the by-election just before tory conference) or hold the defection over until just before conference? I'd be grateful if anyone could suggest what tactical thinking might lie behind the choice. sent while on the move somewhere Because it's been a few weeks since Nige has seen his picture in the papers and he was starting to get withdrawal symptoms? I would guess it was entirely Carswell led? Once he had made up his mind and shaken hands he is the sort of man who would have to come clean and make a statement. Using silly season August makes no tactical sense. As a strategist I would time it for conference week the day before Cameron's speech or the same day. |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 29, 2014 10:21:18 GMT
Sky News has been told by a UKIP donor that two more Conservatives are "seriously considering" defecting to UKIP
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 3, 2014 21:33:46 GMT
Sky News has been told by a UKIP donor that two more Conservatives are "seriously considering" defecting to UKIP Does "seriously considering" mean "waiting to see what the by-election result is"? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 3, 2014 22:08:06 GMT
Sky News has been told by a UKIP donor that two more Conservatives are "seriously considering" defecting to UKIP Does "seriously considering" mean "waiting to see what the by-election result is"? Yes, because it wouldn't make sense to defect now when you could wait just 35 days to see how Carswell actually does in Clacton. Personally I think if Carswell gets more than 60% in the by-election at least one more Tory MP will defect shortly afterwards. Maybe Owen Paterson is favourite, due to being disgruntled after being sacked from the government. |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 3, 2014 23:21:36 GMT
Does "seriously considering" mean "waiting to see what the by-election result is"? Yes, because it wouldn't make sense to defect now when you could wait just 35 days to see how Carswell actually does in Clacton. Absolutely. And in fact from UKIP's point of view it wouldn't be of particular benefit to have another Tory MP defect before the by election. If they did then they would either call a by election themselves, which would not be helpful whilst another by election was already going on. If they didn't call a by election the they and UKIP would then be asked why, which also wouldn't be helpful. Furthermore Carswell's decision to call the by election also means that even if he comfortably wins a would be defector who doesn't want to call a by election himself might feel the need to delay his defection until the run up to Christmas so that he can have an excuse for not calling one. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 4, 2014 0:22:55 GMT
Someone remind me, how does a resigning MP call a by election? Can they move the writ themselves? I've seen this alluded to a few times recently (and over the years) but is it just a polite legal fiction?
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Post by johnloony on Sept 4, 2014 2:25:43 GMT
Someone remind me, how does a resigning MP call a by election? Can they move the writ themselves? I've seen this alluded to a few times recently (and over the years) but is it just a polite legal fiction? I don't think they could, because there would have to be a vacancy first before the writ is moved. The vacancy is caused when the MP is appointed to the position of Steward of the Manor of Northstead (or of the Chiltern Hundreds). |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 4, 2014 7:26:36 GMT
In the case of Clacton, the writ was moved by the Conservative whip.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 4, 2014 7:30:25 GMT
In the case of Clacton, the writ was moved by the Conservative whip. The writ for Clacton has not yet been moved; it will be this morning at about 9:35. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 4, 2014 8:35:00 GMT
Actually it wasn't.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 4, 2014 9:32:08 GMT
Any idea how long we'll have to wait? The putative date is presumably slipping back.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 4, 2014 10:00:07 GMT
Any idea how long we'll have to wait? The putative date is presumably slipping back. It's still within the timescale for 9 October. Polling day has to be between days 21 and 27; if the writ was moved on Monday, then 9 October would be day 23. |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 4, 2014 19:15:46 GMT
Are we therefore to understand that all the reports in the media in the last few days telling us that the date has been set for 9th October are a load of dingoes' kidneys? |
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