Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,479
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Aug 28, 2014 13:55:14 GMT
I wouldn't have thought it was at all winnable under the current boundaries. We just held the old Harwich seat and a fair slice of the Labour vote came from Harwich itself so when that went it left a safe Tory seat with a couple of Labour areas.
The UKIP and Tory share would have to literally be halved to allow us to sneak though.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Aug 28, 2014 21:15:08 GMT
I wouldn't have thought it was at all winnable under the current boundaries. We just held the old Harwich seat and a fair slice of the Labour vote came from Harwich itself so when that went it left a safe Tory seat with a couple of Labour areas. The UKIP and Tory share would have to literally be halved to allow us to sneak though. Indeed Ivan Henderson, the former MP and beaten 2010 candidate, is now Councillor for Harwich Ward on Tendring council, which appears to suggest our strength lay in Harwich itself. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2014 21:53:55 GMT
Kirsty Wark believes Clacton was a safe Labour seat until 2005  |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,479
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Aug 28, 2014 22:04:58 GMT
Kirsty Wark believes Clacton was a safe Labour seat until 2005 You would think they would be able to find that out accurately - its hardly classified information. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2014 22:05:04 GMT
I wouldn't have thought it was at all winnable under the current boundaries. We just held the old Harwich seat and a fair slice of the Labour vote came from Harwich itself so when that went it left a safe Tory seat with a couple of Labour areas. The UKIP and Tory share would have to literally be halved to allow us to sneak though. Indeed Ivan Henderson, the former MP and beaten 2010 candidate, is now Councillor for Harwich Ward on Tendring council, which appears to suggest our strength lay in Harwich itself. I think it mostly suggests that Ivan lives in Harwich. Harwich is stronger for Labour than Clacton is, but Clacton is a much larger town and I very much doubt that it was possible to win the old Harwich seat without having a lead in Clacton. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 28, 2014 22:07:45 GMT
I wouldn't have thought it was at all winnable under the current boundaries. We just held the old Harwich seat and a fair slice of the Labour vote came from Harwich itself so when that went it left a safe Tory seat with a couple of Labour areas. The UKIP and Tory share would have to literally be halved to allow us to sneak though. Indeed Ivan Henderson, the former MP and beaten 2010 candidate, is now Councillor for Harwich Ward on Tendring council, which appears to suggest our strength lay in Harwich itself. In the 1997 county council elections, Labour's safest seat was Harwich (26.7% lead), although not by much over Clacton West (24.6% lead). Labour also narrowly held Clacton North by 3.9% over the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives held Brightlingsea by only 1.8%, Clacton East by 9.2% and Frinton and Walton by 26.4%. The constituency also included bits of Tendring Rural East, which was surprisingly marginal for a division with 'rural' in its name: Conservatives lead over Labour was 7.6%. |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2014 22:19:25 GMT
Was it Castle Point council that went from 40 Labour to 40 Conservative overnight in 2003? It was something very striking anyway. I remember sitting in my living room with two people who became Labour candidates at subsequent GEs (one is at the next actually) looking at a EADT headline stating 'Blue Tide Sweeps In.'
The total Labour collapse across the Essex CC area between 2001-2009 (apart from Julie Young) is something of a surprise if you look at just the figures, demographics etc. Labour really should have held seats in Harwich and that they didn't, even if we ignore the fluid local politics in that end of Tendring, suggests that this could be fertile ground for UKIP.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2014 22:22:02 GMT
Labour's strength in Tendring Rural East would have come mainly from Ramsey which is more or less the outskirts of Harwich. Brightlingsea division isn't relevant here as the only part which is in the Clacton seat (St Osyth) was not in the Harwich seat. Presumably Labour's strength there came primarily from the eponymous town
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2014 22:24:01 GMT
These days rural east includes the north of Clacton itself and the Parkeston area of Harwich. That said, I'm told we were competitive in the division when it was truly rural. Sadly Essex County Council have taken historic election results off their website, but apparently we came within 100 votes of victory a few decades back.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2014 22:27:13 GMT
Was it Castle Point council that went from 40 Labour to 40 Conservative overnight in 2003? It was something very striking anyway. No it went from 24/15 in Labour's favour to 39/2 in the Tories favour (there were ward boundary changes) It did go from 36/3 Tory/Lab to 34/5 Lab/Tory in 1995 which was the more suprising earthquake. Prior to that the Conservatives had held most of the seats in the borough for 20 years including winning all 39 in 1987 |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2014 22:30:55 GMT
Yes that's it, 39/2. I knew it was about 40. I wonder why there were no Canvey Island Independents elected.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 28, 2014 22:33:21 GMT
These days rural east includes the north of Clacton itself and the Parkeston area of Harwich. That said, I'm told we were competitive in the division when it was truly rural. Sadly Essex County Council have taken historic election results off their website, but apparently we came within 100 votes of victory a few decades back. 1981 C 59.8% Lab 40.2% 1985: C. Lumber (C) 1,664 P. Davis (Lab) 1,286 W. Ford (L) 1,025 1989: C. Lumber (C) 1,875 K. Rose (Lab) 1,207 A. Wallis (SLD) 562 1993: C. Lumber (C) 1,567 W. Mixter (Lab) 1,244 Ms. J. Leader (L Dem) 881 1997: C. Lumber (C) 3,232 W. Mixter (Lab) 2,626 M. De Roy (L Dem) 2,160 2001: C. Lumber (C) 2,879 Ms. A. Evander (Lab) 2,277 M. De Roy (L Dem) 1,576 J. Brown (Community Representative) 413 |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2014 22:35:01 GMT
Interesting to see the Tory lead widening in 1997. Presumably down to GE turnout.
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2014 22:35:16 GMT
Because Dave Blackwell was still in Labour at the time.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2014 22:35:19 GMT
Yes that's it, 39/2. I knew it was about 40. I wonder why there were no Canvey Island Independents elected. Probably because none stood for electrion, mainly due to the fact that the party didn't exist then. They were formed shortly after by Dave Blackwell who was one of the surviving Labour councillors |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2014 22:38:01 GMT
Thanks gents. I thought he'd gone out on that limb around 1999.
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,479
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Aug 28, 2014 22:53:13 GMT
Was it Castle Point council that went from 40 Labour to 40 Conservative overnight in 2003? It was something very striking anyway. I remember sitting in my living room with two people who became Labour candidates at subsequent GEs (one is at the next actually) looking at a EADT headline stating 'Blue Tide Sweeps In.' The total Labour collapse across the Essex CC area between 2001-2009 (apart from Julie Young) is something of a surprise if you look at just the figures, demographics etc. Labour really should have held seats in Harwich and that they didn't, even if we ignore the fluid local politics in that end of Tendring, suggests that this could be fertile ground for UKIP. Both the Castle Point and Tendring areas had been Conservative for a long time, though, and it was only a Labour rush in the mid 90's. In 1987 Labour had no councillors at all, and that increased to 3 in 1991. Then suddenly they all but 5 and had 34 in 1995, and 24 in 1999. By 2003 it was back to normal with 2 and its been zero since 2010 This area is classic white-van-man self-employed all-white owner occupied territory. Low educational attainment, not rich, but not poor either. But very much not the sort of seat likely to be Labour these days. |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2014 22:59:55 GMT
There are parts of Tendring and Braintree that should have returned Labour district members even if they couldn't return county ones in the 2003-7 cycle. Certainly nowhere in Harwich should have fallen at county level. I spent a lot of time in both Clacton and Harwich in 2003-5 (I worked for Safeway) and I couldn't believe I was in an area where Labour were under threat (having seen canvass returns from my own lot).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2014 23:12:21 GMT
Can I canvass people's views on the timing of this defection?
If you were Farage, why would you like Carswell to defect at the end of August in preference to earlier this month (and have the by-election just before tory conference) or hold the defection over until just before conference?
I'd be grateful if anyone could suggest what tactical thinking might lie behind the choice.
sent while on the move somewhere
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2014 23:14:23 GMT
At county level? Harwich has only got one county council seat, and Labour have held it in every recent year except 2009. The district council results were considerably less good, but that basically came down to personality clashes, which are going to be more damaging in small towns where everybody knows everybody.
|
|
