birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 18, 2024 5:01:27 GMT
Are there going to be any constituency polls There is a crowdfunding initiative to commission an Islington North constituency poll, at the last update they were £25 short: www.gofundme.com/f/IslingtonPoll
There's been an update posted to the GoFundMe page since stating that the fundraiser has reached its target nonetheless (deleted previous post in this thread in light of this)
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 18, 2024 7:23:49 GMT
Now, who do they employ to conduct the poll!
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,914
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YouGov
Jun 18, 2024 8:03:31 GMT
Post by YL on Jun 18, 2024 8:03:31 GMT
Now, who do they employ to conduct the poll! It will be Survation. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,914
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Post by YL on Jun 19, 2024 7:14:50 GMT
YouGov's latest MRP will be released at 5pm today.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 19, 2024 7:33:06 GMT
All these MRPs released giving different results in particular constituencies, which are then uncritically reported by particular parts of the media and the more febrile and partisan social media, must confuse many voters trying to keep track.
I am looking forward to the YouGov MRP today.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 19, 2024 7:52:37 GMT
All these MRPs released giving different results in particular constituencies, which are then uncritically reported by particular parts of the media and the more febrile and partisan social media, must confuse many voters trying to keep track. I am looking forward to the YouGov MRP today. MRPs are definitely seen as 'sexy' right now. You'd think somebody might wish to investigate the differing results, though analysis is lacking in journalism right now. |
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910 
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Post by msc on Jun 19, 2024 8:03:14 GMT
I trust the YouGov MRP to get the gist of the results even if individual seats are off, based on their reasonable accuracy in 2017 and 2019.
The Ipsos may be the same (ball park correct, individual seats wrong) though it does declare one seat I know is tight (due to knowing local campaigners and how much defence campaigning is going on) that the Ipsos MRP claims is super safe!
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 19, 2024 9:14:03 GMT
I trust the YouGov MRP to get the gist of the results even if individual seats are off, based on their reasonable accuracy in 2017 and 2019. The Ipsos may be the same (ball park correct, individual seats wrong) though it does declare one seat I know is tight (due to knowing local campaigners and how much defence campaigning is going on) that the Ipsos MRP claims is super safe! Could you give us a clue as to the constituency? |
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k9
Non-Aligned
Posts: 126
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YouGov
Jun 19, 2024 9:19:43 GMT
Post by k9 on Jun 19, 2024 9:19:43 GMT
YouGov's latest MRP will be released at 5pm today. YouGov emailed me overnight to undertake a survey on heart conditions and what I thought of the British Heart Foundation along with three political questions: a) Which party would I vote for if there was an election tomorrow b) Listed the candidates in Beckenham & Penge to ask who I would vote for c) Asked on a scale of 1-10 how likely I would be to vote |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 19, 2024 9:26:21 GMT
I trust the YouGov MRP to get the gist of the results even if individual seats are off, based on their reasonable accuracy in 2017 and 2019. The Ipsos may be the same (ball park correct, individual seats wrong) though it does declare one seat I know is tight (due to knowing local campaigners and how much defence campaigning is going on) that the Ipsos MRP claims is super safe! 2017 was bloody good, 2019 less so. The one good thing about 2019 was how it identified places like Leigh as Tory gains |
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YouGov
Jun 19, 2024 10:41:59 GMT
k9 likes this
Post by John Chanin on Jun 19, 2024 10:41:59 GMT
YouGov's latest MRP will be released at 5pm today. YouGov emailed me overnight to undertake a survey on heart conditions and what I thought of the British Heart Foundation along with three political questions: a) Which party would I vote for if there was an election tomorrow b) Listed the candidates in Beckenham & Penge to ask who I would vote for c) Asked on a scale of 1-10 how likely I would be to vote I got the same questions about my constituency....and a survey about petrol companies. |
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YouGov
Jun 19, 2024 12:02:46 GMT
via mobile
Post by evergreenadam on Jun 19, 2024 12:02:46 GMT
I trust the YouGov MRP to get the gist of the results even if individual seats are off, based on their reasonable accuracy in 2017 and 2019. The Ipsos may be the same (ball park correct, individual seats wrong) though it does declare one seat I know is tight (due to knowing local campaigners and how much defence campaigning is going on) that the Ipsos MRP claims is super safe! Which party is defending that seat, out of interest? |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,442
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Post by iain on Jun 19, 2024 12:19:46 GMT
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jun 19, 2024 12:24:21 GMT
Marginally. Which, given how dreadful Sunak demonstrably is at the job, isn’t a great accolade for Davey. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2024 12:35:29 GMT
What really stands out there, at least arguably, is Sunak still easily beating Farage.
Given the way so much of our supposedly "left-liberal" media uncritically signal boosts the latter, you would never guess that most voters roundly despise him.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,442
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YouGov
Jun 19, 2024 12:36:31 GMT
Post by iain on Jun 19, 2024 12:36:31 GMT
Marginally. Which, given how dreadful Sunak demonstrably is at the job, isn’t a great accolade for Davey. I posted it not so much for the Davey numbers as for those of Farage - uniting the right behind him, as seems to be the plan in some quarters, doesn't seem like a great plan. |
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YouGov
Jun 19, 2024 12:51:10 GMT
Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 12:51:10 GMT
I still think he wins Clacton, and that some (a small number of) other Tory seats are at risk, but perhaps the polls could be overestimating Reform a bit? Or of course perhaps this one is wrong.
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910
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Post by msc on Jun 19, 2024 13:47:31 GMT
I trust the YouGov MRP to get the gist of the results even if individual seats are off, based on their reasonable accuracy in 2017 and 2019. The Ipsos may be the same (ball park correct, individual seats wrong) though it does declare one seat I know is tight (due to knowing local campaigners and how much defence campaigning is going on) that the Ipsos MRP claims is super safe! Could you give us a clue as to the constituency? Sorry, got distracted earlier. Jamie Stone's seat in the Highlands. Apparently local campaigning agrees with the YouGov ball park (which has SNP leading) not the Ipsos. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jun 19, 2024 14:09:13 GMT
I still think he wins Clacton, and that some (a small number of) other Tory seats are at risk, but perhaps the polls could be overestimating Reform a bit? Or of course perhaps this one is wrong. I really thought the Reform vote would melt a bit before election day. Probably around 5-8%. Since Farage is back on the scene, it's noticeable to me how you hear Reform more on the doorstep than before. |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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YouGov
Jun 19, 2024 14:25:16 GMT
Post by polupolu on Jun 19, 2024 14:25:16 GMT
Could you give us a clue as to the constituency? Sorry, got distracted earlier. Jamie Stone's seat in the Highlands. Apparently local campaigning agrees with the YouGov ball park (which has SNP leading) not the Ipsos. Out of curiosity, which party's/parties' local campaigning is/are saying the SNP is leading in Jamie Stone's seat? (It happens to be my constituency)
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