YouGov

[AdminSTB]

YouGov/Sunday Times, 25 November 2012:

Lab 44%
Con 33%
LD 9%
UKIP 8%

Government approval -32
Cameron approval -18
Miliband approval -20
Clegg approval -54

cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lmlmhdqllh/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results%20-%2023-251112.pdf

[The Bishop]

Thank you for this, Kris. If we aren't going to have one catch-all thread on this topic, then maybe seperate ones on each pollster is the way to go??

[Deleted]

I would probably place YouGov as my favourite polling organisation. They seem to have a reasonably good track record for accuracy and we get new figures from them nearly every day.
This thread is going to be huge.
Bishop is right, we could have a thread for the other pollsters.

While we're on this subject, why did Gallup polls stop in Britain in 2001?

[marksenior]

Gallup stopped polling because noone would pay to publish their results .

As for getting polls from Yougov nearly every day , the more rubbish you get , the more some people will think it is true .

[Deleted]

you can see that from the reaction when you get the outlier poll that shows the Labour lead suddenly dip.

at the end of the day they mean little as you do not get sudden movements

[Pimpernal]

Nov 25, 2012 13:07:30 GMT marksenior said:

Gallup stopped polling because noone would pay to publish their results .

As for getting polls from Yougov nearly every day , the more rubbish you get , the more some people will think it is true .

Is that why Lib Dem manifestos tend to be longer than other Parties'?

[tonygreaves]

Evidence?

Tony Greaves

[Deleted]

Gallup stopped polling because noone would pay to publish their results.

That does seem odd, seeing as Gallup were just about the only pollster for well over 30 years and the sole source of historical polls before the time of Ted Heath.
They did seem to grossly overestimate the Labour lead from the 1992 Parliament onwards, which could have been a factor - but I'm wondering if it was more of a case of them hiking their fees.

[The Bishop]

Nov 25, 2012 20:00:36 GMT swanarcadian said:

Gallup stopped polling because noone would pay to publish their results.

That does seem odd, seeing as Gallup were just about the only pollster for well over 30 years and the sole source of historical polls before the time of Ted Heath.They did seem to grossly overestimate the Labour lead from the 1992 Parliament onwards, which could have been a factor - but I'm wondering if it was more of a case of them hiking their fees.

Not quite true - NOP (who also seem to have vanished) have polls going back to at least the early 1960s.

Harris - who you still hear from occasionally - date from roughly around that time too.

[Deleted]

I stand corrected.

[AdminSTB]

YouGov/Sun, 26 November 2012:

Lab 43% (-1)
Con 34% (+1)
LD 9% (=)
UKIP 8% (=)

Government approval -29 (+3)

cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/g5vya59z67/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-261112.pdf

[marksenior]

Nov 27, 2012 9:37:16 GMT AdminSTB said:

YouGov/Sun, 26 November 2012:

Lab 43% (-1)
Con 34% (+1)
LD 9% (=)
UKIP 8% (=)

Government approval -29 (+3)

cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/g5vya59z67/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-261112.pdf

I am really surprised you have not given us the figures for the Scottish subsample
Lab 37 Con 22 Lib Dem 19 SNP 17 UKIP 3 Green 1

Rubbish in rubbish out

[AdminSTB]

Subsamples mean squat. They're not balanced and they're tiny groups of people.

[Deleted]

From what I've read the Scottish subsample rather ridiculously includes voters in the far north of England also - aren't they based on TV regions rather than administrative ones?
It's rather like my local news in Yorkshire covering parts of the north Midlands and north Norfolk. I've never understood the logic.

[Tangent]

Nov 25, 2012 20:47:32 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 25, 2012 20:00:36 GMT swanarcadian said:

That does seem odd, seeing as Gallup were just about the only pollster for well over 30 years and the sole source of historical polls before the time of Ted Heath.They did seem to grossly overestimate the Labour lead from the 1992 Parliament onwards, which could have been a factor - but I'm wondering if it was more of a case of them hiking their fees.

Not quite true - NOP (who also seem to have vanished) have polls going back to at least the early 1960s.

Harris - who you still hear from occasionally - date from roughly around that time too.

NOP are still around, but confine themselves to the corporate market. For most polling and market research companies, political polling is small potatoes financially, although it can be useful in building up a reputation. YouGov's continuing commitment to political polling is probably due as much to the political interests of its founders as anything else.

[marksenior]

Nov 27, 2012 19:31:46 GMT swanarcadian said:

From what I've read the Scottish subsample rather ridiculously includes voters in the far north of England also - aren't they based on TV regions rather than administrative ones?
It's rather like my local news in Yorkshire covering parts of the north Midlands and north Norfolk. I've never understood the logic.

This used to be true but I believe it is not nowadays .

[timrollpickering]

Nov 27, 2012 19:31:46 GMT swanarcadian said:

From what I've read the Scottish subsample rather ridiculously includes voters in the far north of England also - aren't they based on TV regions rather than administrative ones?
It's rather like my local news in Yorkshire covering parts of the north Midlands and north Norfolk. I've never understood the logic.

I do opinion polls for multiple companies and do often get the region question based on ITV regions (which I feel is antiquated when so few have a clear onscreen identity anymore - on the Freeview guide it's "ITV1" not "Carlton") rather than government ones, but I can't recall it on a political YouGov poll. It's far more common with other companies who are overwhelmingly commercial based.

[Crimson King]

I presume the reason is to see the effect of advertising on productvrecognition

[The Bishop]

Today's poll:

Lab 43
Con 31
UKIP 11
LibDem 9

Approval -36

According to some claims, the highest ever UKIP rating in this survey.....

[marksenior]

Nov 28, 2012 11:01:19 GMT The Bishop said:

Today's poll:

Lab 43
Con 31
UKIP 11
LibDem 9

Approval -36

According to some claims, the highest ever UKIP rating in this survey.....

Not surprising as they polled 4 times as many UKIP identifiers as they should do . This adds around 4% to the UKIP figure .