YouGov

[Deleted]

Nov 28, 2012 13:00:09 GMT marksenior said:

Nov 28, 2012 11:01:19 GMT The Bishop said:

Today's poll:

Lab 43
Con 31
UKIP 11
LibDem 9

Approval -36

According to some claims, the highest ever UKIP rating in this survey.....

Not surprising as they polled 4 times as many UKIP identifiers as they should do . This adds around 4% to the UKIP figure .

A poll showing more people identifying themselves with a party than we'd expect? We must immediately adjust these figures to what we've expected in the past. Then we'll be sure to win Ohio...

[marksenior]

Nov 28, 2012 13:03:53 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Nov 28, 2012 13:00:09 GMT marksenior said:

Not surprising as they polled 4 times as many UKIP identifiers as they should do . This adds around 4% to the UKIP figure .

A poll showing more people identifying themselves with a party than we'd expect? We must immediately adjust these figures to what we've expected in the past. Then we'll be sure to win Ohio...

You did not really understand the adjustments made in US polls did you James .
Are you still in the Greens or have you opportunistically moved on to UKIP now .

[Arthur Figgis]

I can feel the daggers being flung in Worthing from here.

I'm going to be in the Selden Arms at the weekend- should I be careful of which side of the bar to sit on? ;D

[Deleted]

Nov 28, 2012 16:11:17 GMT marksenior said:

Nov 28, 2012 13:03:53 GMT jamesdoyle said:

A poll showing more people identifying themselves with a party than we'd expect? We must immediately adjust these figures to what we've expected in the past. Then we'll be sure to win Ohio...

You did not really understand the adjustments made in US polls did you James .

Yes; yes I did.

Are you still in the Greens or have you opportunistically moved on to UKIP now .

No; no I haven't.

Sent from my Dell Streak using proboards

[marksenior]

Nov 28, 2012 17:24:45 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

I can feel the daggers being flung in Worthing from here.

I'm going to be in the Selden Arms at the weekend- should I be careful of which side of the bar to sit on? ;D

Not a pub I use very often as it is the opposite side of the town centre from where I live , I have good reports of it though it does not have a bar billiard table . I would recommend the Swan which does .

[Deleted]

Nov 28, 2012 17:24:45 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

I can feel the daggers being flung in Worthing from here.

I'm going to be in the Selden Arms at the weekend- should I be careful of which side of the bar to sit on? ;D

Funnily enough, the only times I've been in the Selden Arms have been for Green, or green-oriented, meetups. Beer's good, certainly. I'd suggest meeting up, but I've got a museum trip (daughter), a rugby practice (son) and a play rehearsal (me) this weekend, so not much spare time available! Maybe next time you're down?
Sent from my Dell Streak using proboards

[The Bishop]

Today's survey:

Lab 44
Con 32
LibDem 11
UKIP 8

Approval -30

[The Bishop]

And Friday's:

Lab 42
Con 32
LibDem 10
UKIP 10

Approval -32

It does seem that Tory support has dipped a bit from a few weeks ago , when they were scoring a few 35's here.

[Deleted]

mostly to UKIP it seems who were at 7's

[Richard Allen]

It would have been surprising if we didn't get a bounce from

a) The good publicity of last weekend
b) The good publicity from the Rotherham result (and to a lesser extent Middlesbrough)

Whether it will be sustained is of course another matter.

[The Bishop]

The Sunday Times survey:

Lab 44
Con 31
LibDem 10
UKIP 10

Approval -32

The biggest Labour lead on this one for a while.

[The Bishop]

This morning's poll:

Lab 43
Con 31
LibDem 11
UKIP 10

Approval -37

[Tony Otim]

That's 4 YouGov's in a row with the LDs in double figures - must be quite a while since that's happened.

[The Bishop]

This LibDem uptick isn't really being backed up by other pollsters (or, of course, by last week's actual elections)

Maybe a few more LibDems have entered the YouGov panel?

[Tony Otim]

Agreed, but it's worth noting nonetheless - may be a blip or nothing at all.

[marksenior]

Dec 4, 2012 12:06:45 GMT The Bishop said:

This LibDem uptick isn't really being backed up by other pollsters (or, of course, by last week's actual elections)

Maybe a few more LibDems have entered the YouGov panel?

Nope they still underpolled Lib Dems by 19% and of course last week's parliamentary byelections were not in Lib Dem strong areas whereas recent council byelections in stronger Lib Dem areas show a much better Lib Dem performance .

[The Bishop]

Today's poll:

Lab 44
Con 30
LibDem 11
UKIP 10

Approval -32

The royal baby news might have arrived just in time, by the looks of it

[The Bishop]

Libs back in single figures today:

Lab 44
Con 32
UKIP 10
LibDem 9

Approval -32

[The Bishop]

Today's offering:

Lab 42
Con 32
LibDem 10
UKIP 9

Approval -32

[The Bishop]

This week's Sunday Times survey:

Lab 42
Con 33
LibDem 10
UKIP 9

Approval -31

Looks like Osborne's nasty and divisive politicking might have had a (thankfully) limited effect.