YouGov

[Deleted]

not sure it will change anyones mind at all. Only if liek the budget it starts to unravel again

[Deleted]

It is interesting to compare these polls to what they were saying at this stage of the previous Parliament. Of course, back in late 2007, YouGov reported every week or two, rather than nearly every day:

29/11/2007
C 43
Lab 32
LD 14

14/12/2007
C 45
Lab 32
LD 14

Make from these what you will.
If Labour can get into leads of 20+ after next May's local elections and stay there consistently until the party conference season, then I will concede they are almost certain to be back in government in 2015.

[The Bishop]

If we are comparing with the last parliament, it was the spring of 2008 when the Tory lead really took off - so I agree that 2013 is going to be key this time round.

[Deleted]

The Tory lead peaked at 26% according to YouGov in the afterglow of the 2008 local elections, and we ended up with a lead of 7 at the 2010 GE.

Should we therefore wait until Labour peaks and reduce its lead by 19 to help us predict the next GE? It is not a perfect way to make predictions but it seems like a reasonably good one!
Admittedly Labour don't need to do as well as the Tories did in 2008 to look as though they will win.
It's interesting to note the LibDems are only 4% lower than they were exactly five years ago.
Now we are holding elections in five year cycles (although I would personally favour four), it is now easier to look back, compare - and if we wish to - extrapolate.

[john07]

Dec 9, 2012 22:27:32 GMT swanarcadian said:

The Tory lead peaked at 26% according to YouGov in the afterglow of the 2008 local elections, and we ended up with a lead of 7 at the 2010 GE.

Should we therefore wait until Labour peaks and reduce its lead by 19 to help us predict the next GE? It is not a perfect way to make predictions but it seems like a reasonably good one!
Admittedly Labour don't need to do as well as the Tories did in 2008 to look as though they will win.

Exactly. Mid-term polls are soft as sh*t and can mean very little in the final outcome. Kinnock had plenty of 40%+ poll ratings in the mid to late 1980s and we all know what happened then.

I am not sure that Labour need 20%+ poll leads. However they do need a clear and sustained majority in polls on economic competance and trusthworthiness before thinking about winning a eneral election.

At the moment the polls are suggesting another hung parliament, albeit with Labour as the biggest party.

[The Bishop]

Today's poll - virtually unchanged:

Lab 42
Con 33
LibDem 10
UKIP 8

Approval -32

[Deleted]

Who's the more accurate out of YouGov and TNB on the UKIP figure?

[The Bishop]

The TNS/BMRB poll is fairly obviously a rogue - they happen.

That does not, however, alter the fact that UKIP's trajectory is clearly upward at the minute.

[The Bishop]

Back to a double figure lead today:

Lab 43
Con 31
LibDem 10
UKIP 9

Approval -31

[Deleted]

will be interesting on the Daily polls to see if the message from the anti gay marriage tories is right and losing a lot of support. See Farage today made a big play for those who feel that that way in rural Kent and his local pub ...

[Deleted]

Yougibber:

LAB 44
CONS 31
LD 12
UKIP 9

-33.

At some stage somebody is going to get bored aren't they?

[The Bishop]

Thank you to someone else for doing it for once

Biggest LibDem figure for around two years, though

[The Bishop]

Could the improvement in the LibDem position (with the caveat that not all other polls are backing it up as yet) be some unhappy "wet" Tories going over to them??

Some evidence of such a movement in recent local by-elections, too.

[Pete Whitehead]

What could wet Tories possibly be unhappy about ?

[marksenior]

Dec 13, 2012 12:24:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Could the improvement in the LibDem position (with the caveat that not all other polls are backing it up as yet) be some unhappy "wet" Tories going over to them??

Some evidence of such a movement in recent local by-elections, too.

FWIW which is not very much , this Yougov poll has 3% of 2010 Con voters and 2% of 2010 Labour voters moving to the Lib Dems

[The Bishop]

The last LibDem 12% with YouGov was actually in April 2011. To get a higher score than that, I think you have to go back to the turn of 2010/11.

[Deleted]

Dec 13, 2012 12:16:18 GMT @trident said:

Dec 13, 2012 11:23:43 GMT cogload said:

At some stage somebody is going to get bored aren't they?

Sometimes there's nothing wrong with being bored

I expect the Tory position to deteriorate a bit more in the new year, as more cuts start to be felt and the realisation sinks in that there's another two or three years of austerity on top of what was already planned.

That's the most frustrating thing about being a Conservative these days. People not realising why we're in austerity in the first place, denying it is necessary, having to take the rap for dealing with it, and seeing the party which helped us get into it taking all the glory.

It's frankly an absurd situation that grates on a lot of people who don't want Labour back in government so soon - although it could just merely be a sign of people venting their short-term frustration, rather than a sign that the country is ready to put Labour back in office. I'd like to believe this is the case, and we will find out.

I still hold onto some hope - in the interests of British fair play - that these polls will turn around by 2015, people by the end of the term will see things from our perspective - and history suggests that they just might.
Labour will of course be back in government one day, but hopefully not too soon and once they have acknowledged they must take some responsibility for the legacy of debt they left behind. In other words, when the two Eds are off the frontbench.

[Deleted]

Dec 13, 2012 11:31:59 GMT The Bishop said:

Thank you to someone else for doing it for once

Biggest LibDem figure for around two years, though

Is there any way we can get YouGov to automatically update this thread, rather than us? ;D

[The Bishop]

I think trying to paint Miliband E as one of the chief henchmen of the Brown era is one of the most unconvincing bits of the Tory "narrative", tbh. Labour people supported him primarily because they wanted a change from the tired old ways of doing things - and to a significant extent, he has delivered.

Of course, you *do* have a point with the other Ed. But the man has his plus points as well, so its a tricky one. I would put his chances of still being SC come 2015 as only a bit over 50/50, though. And his gaffe last week didn't really help

[Deleted]

Dec 13, 2012 16:29:33 GMT The Bishop said:

I think trying to paint Miliband E as one of the chief henchmen of the Brown era is one of the most unconvincing bits of the Tory "narrative", tbh. Labour people supported him primarily because they wanted a change from the tired old ways of doing things - and to a significant extent, he has delivered.

Of course, you *do* have a point with the other Ed. But the man has his plus points as well, so its a tricky one. I would put his chances of still being SC come 2015 as only a bit over 50/50, though. And his gaffe last week didn't really help

Ed Miliband's biggest asset is that he is in a different generation from Brown, Balls, Blair, Prescott and the rest of the old crew. I'd choose him over Balls any day.
But the phrase "old wine in new bottles" springs to mind. He hasn't yet demonstrated his support for the cuts that they would have had to make had they remained in government in 2010.