YouGov

[Tony Otim]

Jun 19, 2024 14:09:13 GMT johng said:

Jun 19, 2024 12:51:10 GMT batman said:

I still think he wins Clacton, and that some (a small number of) other Tory seats are at risk, but perhaps the polls could be overestimating Reform a bit? Or of course perhaps this one is wrong.

I really thought the Reform vote would melt a bit before election day. Probably around 5-8%. Since Farage is back on the scene, it's noticeable to me how you hear Reform more on the doorstep than before.

UKIP got 12.6% in 2015 and had 1 incumbent MP elected - my hunch is that Reform are possibly slightly overstated in polls at moment and will get something similar to that (12-15% rather 17-20% suggested by some polls) and may or may not get a few seats with that depending how things fall. But my hunches are sometimes wrong and it is certainly a strange election, so maybe they get 20% and the Tories are reduced to small rump.

[msc]

Jun 19, 2024 14:25:16 GMT polupolu said:

Jun 19, 2024 13:47:31 GMT msc said:

Sorry, got distracted earlier. Jamie Stone's seat in the Highlands. Apparently local campaigning agrees with the YouGov ball park (which has SNP leading) not the Ipsos.

Out of curiosity, which party's/parties' local campaigning is/are saying the SNP is leading in Jamie Stone's seat?

(It happens to be my constituency)

Primarily Green/SNP folk but they chat with their Lib Dem/Labour counterparts. The campaign gossip for the SNP appears to be that they think their vote is holding up far better than expected in the North (basically, Perth/Perthshire and above, with the exception of Na h-Eileannan an Iar which is its own story) but is abysmal in the Central Belt. Not earth shocking, I know.

Will be interesting to see what the incoming MRP says, though in 2019, the first YouGov MRP was more accurate than their updated one nearer the election!

[johng]

[Tony Otim]

So main changes since last time are Cons losing more to Lib Dems and Reform getting a few...

[Tony Otim]

Reform seats:
Clacton
Great Yarmouth
Boston & Skegness Louth & Horncastle
Ashfield
Basildon & Billericay

[observer]

My hunch is that the latest YouGov will be about where things end up.
Not very convincing for anyone. The seat totals will deceive

[Tony Otim]

The overall figures look reasonable, but some areas seem off - SNP winning 4 out of 5 Edinburgh seats including gaining West seems off.

[Clark]

Basildon & Billericay? I highly doubt that

[Sibboleth]

Some of the detailed figures are honestly quite silly and I can't even work out how they managed to generate them.

[binky]

This model has the Tories losing Huntingdon, Maidenhead, Uxbridge, and Witney. I buy Labour will win Johnson's old seat, but color me very skeptical they'll take Major's. It's also a stretch to imagine the Liberals winning May and Cameron's old stomping grounds...

[Forfarshire Conservative]

8% for the Tories in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry? That would be astonishingly bad, which is why I don't trust the vote totals.

[cogload]

Jun 19, 2024 16:11:34 GMT binky said:

This model has the Tories losing Huntingdon, Maidenhead, Uxbridge, and Witney. I buy Labour will win Johnson's old seat, but color me very skeptical they'll take Major's. It's also a stretch to imagine the Liberals winning May and Cameron's old stomping grounds...

colour sceptical

[Tony Otim]

Jun 19, 2024 16:09:21 GMT Clark said:

Basildon & Billericay? I highly doubt that

It is one the Tories perhaps deserve to lose with the selection shenanigans there... maybe having an effect?

[binky]

Jun 19, 2024 16:14:27 GMT cogload said:

Jun 19, 2024 16:11:34 GMT binky said:

This model has the Tories losing Huntingdon, Maidenhead, Uxbridge, and Witney. I buy Labour will win Johnson's old seat, but color me very skeptical they'll take Major's. It's also a stretch to imagine the Liberals winning May and Cameron's old stomping grounds...

colour sceptical

My year living in Oxfordshire couldn't clear out the American spellings... 😆

[noorderling]

Jun 19, 2024 16:08:08 GMT Tony Otim said:

The overall figures look reasonable, but some areas seem off - SNP winning 4 out of 5 Edinburgh seats including gaining West seems off.

Lib Dems winning Caithness and Mid Dunbartonshire, but losing Edinburgh West seems a bit weird. 

[cogload]

Jun 19, 2024 16:16:03 GMT binky said:

Jun 19, 2024 16:14:27 GMT cogload said:

colour sceptical

My year living in Oxfordshire couldn't clear out the American spellings... 😆

Fair enough

[cogload]

If trends are your friends then the direction for the Tories is pretty clear.

[rcronald]

A narrow Tory victory in Finchley & Golders Green with Reform getting 9% seems highly unlikely…

[johng]

I'll copy my post from the Ipsos thread:

I think people are obsessing a bit too much on individual seats.

An MRP is just a much enhanced universal swing projection. It is less accurate in Wales and Scotland due to nationalist parties with a small sample sizes, it finds it hard to pin down new parties like ReformUK, and is pretty much useless in projecting seats where there a specific circumstances (a strong independent, a disgraced MP, a particularly popular candidates, a very strong ground game etc. etc.).

[michaelarden]

Jun 19, 2024 16:51:36 GMT johng said:

I'll copy my post from the Ipsos thread:

I think people are obsessing a bit too much on individual seats.

An MRP is just a much enhanced universal swing projection. It is less accurate in Wales and Scotland due to nationalist parties with a small sample sizes, it finds it hard to pin down new parties like ReformUK, and is pretty much useless in projecting seats where there a specific circumstances (a strong independent, a disgraced MP, a particularly popular candidates, a very strong ground game etc. etc.).

Exactly - there is no way Galloway is going to get 7% in Rochdale and come 5th for example.