YouGov

[manchesterman]

To answer my own question, the lowest I can find, since the formation of Labour at least, was 1918 when the Tory/Labour vote combined share was 59.2%

That record may be in jeopardy this year!

[holderness]

Jun 29, 2024 18:05:01 GMT graham said:

Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (25-27 June 2024)

Con: 20% (+2 from 24-25 June)
Lab: 37% (+1)
Reform UK: 17% (=)
Lib Dem: 13% (-2)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

A 3 per cent lead for the Conservatives over Reform.

I now believe the distribution of the Reform vote will roughly match that of UKIP in the 2015 general election. Over 20 per cent of seats are in London (75) and Scotland (57). However bad the Conservative result, it is still likely they will be at least 10 points ahead of Reform in both. A further 91 seats are in the South East, where the Tories are at least competitive in many seats and likely to finish ahead of Reform.

I still think the gap between the Conservative and Reform vote will be quite a bit more than 3 per cent, but -if it is accurate- such a slender lead across Great Britain as a whole would imply that Reform could finish ahead of the Tories in Wales and the other English regions and possibly in the majority of seats.

A Labour victory might be a foregone conclusion, but this is still a fascinating election to observe.

[hullenedge]

YouGov has attempted to measure tactical voting for the GE. Not totally convinced by these figures esp if the electoral landscape is radically different after Thursday. Anyway Labour are the gainers and the Greens losers:-

[bigfatron]

Labour are the greatest beneficiaries of tactical voting?
That will give Graham a bit of a shock…

[batman]

nothing shocks graham. He plods on regardless no matter what facts are presented to him.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

YouGov's final MRP coming tomorrow at 5 pm

[Sg1]

Feels almost pointless doing an MRP this close to the election, beyond satisfying mild curiosity and potentially making YouGov look foolish the day after.

[CatholicLeft]

This is the only MRP that interests me - the others, not so much.

[Sg1]

Admittedly the YouGov MRPs are the only ones that seem to have been even remotely plausible. I recall they were in 2019.

[hullenedge]

[cogload]

Well, that would set the cat amongst the pigeons. 50k sample.

[Jack]

My constituency has Conservatives going from first down to third behind Reform.

[iain]

I wish ... but I don't think so.

[Crimson King]

yes, a bit of expectation management needed I think

[LDCaerdydd]

Jul 3, 2024 16:25:23 GMT Crimson King said:

yes, a bit of expectation management needed I think

And there was me hoping that someone in LDHQ was currently crafting 16 voodoo dolls.

[islington]

Jul 3, 2024 16:01:30 GMT hullenedge said:

The vote shares attached to this are:
Lab 39
Con 22
Ref 15
LD 12
Grn 7

I'm not going to try everyone's patience by explaining yet again why I don't find it credible that these vote shares would generate the distribution of seats in the MRP.

In about 33 hours (give or take) I'll be on here either eating humble pie (which I promise to do if I'm wrong, although I draw the line at a hat), or else saying with unbearable smugness, "Told you so, told you so."

[nodealbrexiteer]

this election could do for MRPs what the 2001 election did for the ICM 'variometer'.

[aargauer]

Jul 3, 2024 17:43:56 GMT islington said:

Jul 3, 2024 16:01:30 GMT hullenedge said:

The vote shares attached to this are:
Lab 39
Con 22
Ref 15
LD 12
Grn 7

I'm not going to try everyone's patience by explaining yet again why I don't find it credible that these vote shares would generate the distribution of seats in the MRP.

In about 33 hours (give or take) I'll be on here either eating humble pie (which I promise to do if I'm wrong, although I draw the line at a hat), or else saying with unbearable smugness, "Told you so, told you so."

Can you give an executive summary of what you think those %s would look like in terms of seats

[islington]

Jul 3, 2024 17:50:28 GMT aargauer said:

Jul 3, 2024 17:43:56 GMT islington said:

The vote shares attached to this are:
Lab 39
Con 22
Ref 15
LD 12
Grn 7

I'm not going to try everyone's patience by explaining yet again why I don't find it credible that these vote shares would generate the distribution of seats in the MRP.

In about 33 hours (give or take) I'll be on here either eating humble pie (which I promise to do if I'm wrong, although I draw the line at a hat), or else saying with unbearable smugness, "Told you so, told you so."

Can you give an executive summary of what you think those %s would look like in terms of seats

Well, if you switch 40 seats from LD to Tory it would look a lot more plausible in my view (although frankly, with only 12% of the vote even 32 seats is pushing it for the LDs - it would mean that on practically the same vote share as in 2019 they had almost trebled their haul of seats). Apart from Tories and LDs, the numbers for the other parties look credible.

[Sg1]

Jul 3, 2024 16:15:46 GMT Jack said:

My constituency has Conservatives going from first down to third behind Reform.

So does mine. That would surprise me greatly.