CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 13, 2024 20:16:00 GMT
Anybody else getting mid campaign 1983 vibes, when a poll had the SDP/Lib Alliance pulling ahead of Labour? Even Maggie Thatcher was having none of it (her famous "Labour will never die" comment). Labour rallied and, despite a terrible result for us, we were massively ahead of the Alliance (208 to 23). Admittedly, both of us were far higher in the polling than either the Conservatives or Reform.
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YouGov
Jun 13, 2024 20:21:52 GMT
via mobile
Post by observer on Jun 13, 2024 20:21:52 GMT
Anybody else getting mid campaign 1983 vibes, when a poll had the SDP/Lib Alliance pulling ahead of Labour? Even Maggie Thatcher was having none of it (her famous "Labour will never die" comment). Labour rallied and, despite a terrible result for us, we were massively ahead of the Alliance (208 to 23). Admittedly, both of us were far higher in the polling than either the Conservatives or Reform. I'm not getting those vibes yet... there's a long way to go. There isn't QUITE the level of excitement surrounding Reform. That will change if Reform broaden out into an attack on ridiculous energy bills and threats to motorists and holidaymakers. That will eat into Labour, LD and Green votes - and that will leave the Conservatives for dead
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,293
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Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 20:23:44 GMT
Anybody else getting mid campaign 1983 vibes, when a poll had the SDP/Lib Alliance pulling ahead of Labour? Even Maggie Thatcher was having none of it (her famous "Labour will never die" comment). Labour rallied and, despite a terrible result for us, we were massively ahead of the Alliance (208 to 23). Admittedly, both of us were far higher in the polling than either the Conservatives or Reform. I feel the same re- Alliance/Labour crossover in some polls - though that only happened a week to ten days before Polling Day whereas we still have 3 week remaining. Yougov do seem to stick out like a sore thumb thoigh - with four other pollsters having the Tories ahead of Reform.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,778
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Post by johng on Jun 13, 2024 20:27:34 GMT
Anybody else getting mid campaign 1983 vibes, when a poll had the SDP/Lib Alliance pulling ahead of Labour? Even Maggie Thatcher was having none of it (her famous "Labour will never die" comment). Labour rallied and, despite a terrible result for us, we were massively ahead of the Alliance (208 to 23). Admittedly, both of us were far higher in the polling than either the Conservatives or Reform. I feel the same re- Alliance/Labour crossover in some polls - though that only happened a week to ten days before Polling Day whereas we still have 3 week remaining. Yougov do seem to stick out like a sore thumb thoigh - with four other pollsters having the Tories ahead of Reform.
I am wondering if they now regret their methodology change. They really do stand out for their high Reform figure and low Lab/Con combined figure.
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YouGov
Jun 13, 2024 20:41:55 GMT
Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 13, 2024 20:41:55 GMT
Oof. Baxtering that gives Lab 464 Con 71 LDm 69 Rfm 5 Grn 2 SNP 14 PCy 3 Other 3 NI 18 I think we're hitting the sweet spot where it's the Con-LDm gap that governs the scale of the disaster. If you take 1 off the Cons and give it to LDm, then Cons have 58 seats to the LibDems 76. Con campaign team must be bricking it - it's stll only one poll, but the trajectory is set. My prediction of TWO days ago: Conservatives 73 (-19) Labour 459 (+11) SNP 25 (-) Liberal Democrats 67 (+6) Plaid Cymru 3 (-) Green 3 (+1) Reform 0 (-) Workers Party 1 (+1) SDP 0 (-) Others 0 (-)
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YouGov
Jun 13, 2024 20:50:37 GMT
Post by stodge on Jun 13, 2024 20:50:37 GMT
This isn't a poll - it's an estimation of voting intention based on YouGov's own MRP model so the model has produced the polling.
It shouldn't be considered an opinion poll.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 13, 2024 20:52:39 GMT
I wasn't alive to experience 1983, but all the data from the canvassing I've been doing so far suggests the Tories are fucked. Spoke to ex Tories this evening who have never voted anything but Tory. I have this conversation on every knock so far this campaign
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YouGov
Jun 13, 2024 21:01:16 GMT
Post by willpower3 on Jun 13, 2024 21:01:16 GMT
I wasn't alive to experience 1983, but all the data from the canvassing I've been doing so far suggests the Tories are fucked. Spoke to ex Tories this evening who have never voted anything but Tory. I have this conversation on every knock so far this campaign Well the Tories weren't fucked in 1983 so I don't know how that is particularly connected.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 13, 2024 21:03:56 GMT
I wasn't alive to experience 1983, but all the data from the canvassing I've been doing so far suggests the Tories are fucked. Spoke to ex Tories this evening who have never voted anything but Tory. I have this conversation on every knock so far this campaign Given my vocation, I feel unable to verbalise strongly what I really want to say about this particular revelation (given I was 18 at the time and running the local canvass). So. I will tag john07 , whom I feel will have the requisite words and, if he is too polite, maybe carlton43 will deliver the appropriate withering response. If not, ArmchairCritic : "Prepare the scaffold."
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wysall
Forum Regular
Posts: 321
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YouGov
Jun 13, 2024 21:11:58 GMT
Post by wysall on Jun 13, 2024 21:11:58 GMT
Anybody else getting mid campaign 1983 vibes, when a poll had the SDP/Lib Alliance pulling ahead of Labour? Even Maggie Thatcher was having none of it (her famous "Labour will never die" comment). Labour rallied and, despite a terrible result for us, we were massively ahead of the Alliance (208 to 23). Admittedly, both of us were far higher in the polling than either the Conservatives or Reform. Even if Reform can win only two seats, finishing second in terms of votes nationally would make Nigel Farage the de facto leader of the opposition, especially if the Conservatives are behind the Lib Dems in terms of seats.
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Post by markfoster on Jun 13, 2024 21:40:36 GMT
How long before we see calls for the Conservatives to stop splitting the Reform vote?
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YouGov
Jun 13, 2024 22:01:56 GMT
via mobile
Post by mattbewilson on Jun 13, 2024 22:01:56 GMT
I wasn't alive to experience 1983, but all the data from the canvassing I've been doing so far suggests the Tories are fucked. Spoke to ex Tories this evening who have never voted anything but Tory. I have this conversation on every knock so far this campaign Well the Tories weren't fucked in 1983 so I don't know how that is particularly connected.Ā the comparison is being made between Labour/SDP 83 and Tories/Reform 2024
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Post by š“āā ļø Neath West š“āā ļø on Jun 13, 2024 22:04:17 GMT
Anybody else getting mid campaign 1983 vibes, when a poll had the SDP/Lib Alliance pulling ahead of Labour? Even Maggie Thatcher was having none of it (her famous "Labour will never die" comment). Labour rallied and, despite a terrible result for us, we were massively ahead of the Alliance (208 to 23). Admittedly, both of us were far higher in the polling than either the Conservatives or Reform. No. More like 1922. Sir Keir is not Maggie. But worse still, Sunak is not Lloyd George.
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European Lefty
Top Poster
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 6,067
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Post by European Lefty on Jun 13, 2024 22:54:39 GMT
I wasn't alive to experience 1983, but all the data from the canvassing I've been doing so far suggests the Tories are fucked. Spoke to ex Tories this evening who have never voted anything but Tory. I have this conversation on every knock so far this campaign Given my vocation, I feel unable to verbalise strongly what I really want to say about this particular revelation (given I was 18 at the time and running the local canvass). So. I will tag john07 , whom I feel will have the requisite words and, if he is too polite, maybe carlton43 will deliver the appropriate withering response. If not, ArmchairCritic : "Prepare the scaffold." I wasn't alive to experience 1997
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 13, 2024 23:38:10 GMT
I wasn't alive to experience 1983, but all the data from the canvassing I've been doing so far suggests the Tories are fucked. Spoke to ex Tories this evening who have never voted anything but Tory. I have this conversation on every knock so far this campaign Given my vocation, I feel unable to verbalise strongly what I really want to say about this particular revelation (given I was 18 at the time and running the local canvass). So. I will tag john07 , whom I feel will have the requisite words and, if he is too polite, maybe carlton43 will deliver the appropriate withering response. If not, ArmchairCritic : "Prepare the scaffold." What is it that you are trying to imply? 1983 was a very bad year in my life but I did take an interest in the GE. I toured around North Yorkshire, Teesside and Durham attempting to 'get a feel' and spoke to many contacts in the south by phone. For me it seemed a form of structural consolidation on the right. Everything tightened up and became more solid, robust and safe. One knew all through that campaign (one I followed closely but took no part in) that the result would be good and considerably better than 79. I was largely unaware of the centre/centre-left/left machinations as they seemed a bit irrelevant to the right; but of course their division of the vote was quite pivotal to the Thatcher victory. I believe many in the Conservatives were less aware of the structural reasons for their success, attributing it all to Thatcher, events and their own hard work. We do look as if we are now in sight of an actual crossover that will stick? If it does, it will be a very major political event. Once the Conservative core diminishes past 20% and approaches 17%, 16% and even 15% the polling mechanics under FPTP will approach a cruel devastation with the seats potential dropping from 175 rapidly towards 65 or even worse. It would release a significant number of extra Labour gains, quite a few LD gains and even a handful of Reform gains. At such a point the Conservative party could implode or just pause and slowly rebuild back to a better position? At such a moment they could face a reverse takeover, a hostile takeover or a negotiated merger and rebranding? Anything might be possible. Whatever happens there will be a large vacuum gap on the right. The centre of gravity will not slip to the left at all and might even start to move sharply to the right instead. It could all be very interesting. The right is not under any threat, but the Conservative brand is very exposed. That is the difference. The centre/left would do well to hope for a Conservative survival and revival, for without it they will assuredly face a much tougher and less acceptable opposition!!
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 14, 2024 0:02:07 GMT
Given my vocation, I feel unable to verbalise strongly what I really want to say about this particular revelation (given I was 18 at the time and running the local canvass). So. I will tag john07 , whom I feel will have the requisite words and, if he is too polite, maybe carlton43 will deliver the appropriate withering response. If not, ArmchairCritic : "Prepare the scaffold." I wasn't alive to experience 1997 I had retired 4-years before you were born! I have vestigial memories of the upset and despond in the house after the 1945 result.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,629
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Post by john07 on Jun 14, 2024 0:28:18 GMT
I wasn't alive to experience 1983, but all the data from the canvassing I've been doing so far suggests the Tories are fucked. Spoke to ex Tories this evening who have never voted anything but Tory. I have this conversation on every knock so far this campaign Given my vocation, I feel unable to verbalise strongly what I really want to say about this particular revelation (given I was 18 at the time and running the local canvass). So. I will tag john07 , whom I feel will have the requisite words and, if he is too polite, maybe carlton43 will deliver the appropriate withering response. If not, ArmchairCritic : "Prepare the scaffold." I do remember 1983 in all its horror. We moved from Coventry to Leicester about a month before the election. My wife had been working in Leicester for a year and being a non-driver found the commute almost impossible. My term on Coventry City Council was due to end and I couldn't see any chance of re-election, so we decided to move. Dave Edwards, who was a good friend at the time, was Labour candidate. Unfortunately the new boundaries came in for the general election and Cheylesmore was moved to Coventry South East. The Labour candidate was the 'disco-king' D J Nellist. So we didn't even get a postal vote as we had no intention of voting for Nellist. We had barely moved into the Leicester East constituency when the general election was called. The Labour MP had defected to the SDP and the excellent Pat Hewitt was selected as candidate. The 1983 campaign was probably the most inept ever (prior to the Tory onmishambles in 2024!). Michael Foot was well-meaning but hopelessly out of his depth. He was put there by Tony Benn supporters as a 'placeholder' and age had blunted his political acumen. Labour were always going to lose that election, but the margin of loss was largely self-inflicted with a horrible manifesto and inept delivery largely to blame. That's before we start on Michael Foot going to the Cenotaph wearing what appeared to be a donkey jacket. Pat Hewitt narrowly missed out on winning the seat due to the sitting MP standing for the SDP and the 'poisoned dwarf' Peter Bruinvels was elected for the Tories. That election ended any aspirations I had of a political future. I hadn't bothered to seek a parliamentry nomination for that election. Then the threat of cuts at Aston University made me worry about the future. I had been applying for jobs elsewhere, including Leicester Poly, and was hoping that something would arise at Loughborough University. It didn't arise. What came up was a job at Heriot-Watt University which I was appointed to. With the family settled in Leicester, I commuted to Edinburgh for the next four years. I remained a member of Leicester East. We got on fine with the, largely Asian, ward membership of Rushey Mead but found the Leicester East 'born and (in-)bred' constituency members very off-putting. Eventually the family moved to Edinburgh in 1987 just as Peter Bruinvels was removed as Leicester East MP, only for him to be be replaced by Keith Vaz. We arrived in Edinburgh just after Michael Ancram was ousted by Nigel Griffiths. The rest is history!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2024 6:35:43 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 6:35:43 GMT
If this poll is remotely accurate, then Reform are winning Boston & Skegness and Clacton (and possibly Castle Point and Thurrock), and could get close in Ashfield and Rotherham (although those two are pretty idiosyncratic in this election). Labour would surely hold the Barnsley seats in this scenario, but Reform could do pretty well. I don't know how much effort Reform are putting into East Thanet or South Basildon & East Thurrock, but they could be competitive. Maybe Rother Valley too.
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2024 6:52:41 GMT
via mobile
Post by batman on Jun 14, 2024 6:52:41 GMT
If this poll is remotely accurate, then Reform are winning Boston & Skegness and Clacton (and possibly Castle Point and Thurrock), and could get close in Ashfield and Rotherham (although those two are pretty idiosyncratic in this election). Labour would surely hold the Barnsley seats in this scenario, but Reform could do pretty well. I don't know how much effort Reform are putting into East Thanet or South Basildon & East Thurrock, but they could be competitive. Maybe Rother Valley too.Ā Rother Valley is a bit left field. Iād have thought plenty of seats offer better opportunities than there
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2024 6:56:20 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 6:56:20 GMT
If this poll is remotely accurate, then Reform are winning Boston & Skegness and Clacton (and possibly Castle Point and Thurrock), and could get close in Ashfield and Rotherham (although those two are pretty idiosyncratic in this election). Labour would surely hold the Barnsley seats in this scenario, but Reform could do pretty well. I don't know how much effort Reform are putting into East Thanet or South Basildon & East Thurrock, but they could be competitive. Maybe Rother Valley too. Rother Valley is a bit left field. Iād have thought plenty of seats offer better opportunities than there It's a stretch for Reform to win it, but UKIP got 28% in 2015, so I think a third of the vote for Reform (on a good night) is doable. If they are almost 20% nationwide, Reform could win or get close to winning some or all of the following (and I'll get blocked for the idea that, heaven forfend, Labour aren't invincible in Heywood & Middleton North): Clacton; Boston & Skegness; Thanet East; Heywood & Middleton North*; Thurrock; Castle Point; Rochester Strood*; Rotherham; Dagenham & Rainham; Rother Valley; Hartlepool (actually fairly confident that they would win this one in that scenario by cannibalising the Tory vote); Basildon South & Thurrock East; Herne Bay & Sandwich; Hornchurch & Upminster; Tipton & Wednesbury; Mansfield; Great Grimsby ; Rawmarsh & Conisbrough; and Stoke-on-Trent North. If we compare Reform's potential best showings to where UKIP did well in 2015. *UKIP vote inflated in 2015 due to Mark Reckless' by-election win **UKIP vote inflated in 2015 due to UKIP narrowly losing the b-e
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