polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,259
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2024 16:22:54 GMT
Post by polupolu on Jun 11, 2024 16:22:54 GMT
An outlier poll. These figures would put maybe 4 or 5 Constituencies into play for Reform?
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Post by greenrichard on Jun 11, 2024 16:23:17 GMT
If this poll is anything like accurate come 4th July and Labour get a stinking majority expect a massive outcry for PR.
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 16:24:36 GMT
It is an outlier. I'd say it's unlikely to be corroborated in the next few polls, but you never know.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,290
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Post by iain on Jun 11, 2024 16:26:15 GMT
YouGov is always extremely bouncy with the news. I'd rather have a 15% outlier than a 5% one though.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 11, 2024 16:30:28 GMT
Hmm, I was expecting a little bounce for the LibDems but +4 seems a bit much. Still, double crossover, anyone?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,826
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2024 16:32:18 GMT
Post by Sibboleth on Jun 11, 2024 16:32:18 GMT
It is an outlier. I'd say it's unlikely to be corroborated in the next few polls, but you never know. Focaldata were in the field at roughly the same time so there's already a datapoint.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 11, 2024 16:47:01 GMT
It is an outlier. I'd say it's unlikely to be corroborated in the next few polls, but you never know. it's a mixture of house effect, YouGov have Tories quite low ATM, and lib Dems manifesto bounce
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,293
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2024 17:18:26 GMT
Post by graham on Jun 11, 2024 17:18:26 GMT
Do we have figures for the old methodology?
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2024 19:37:32 GMT
via mobile
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 11, 2024 19:37:32 GMT
If this poll is anything like accurate come 4th July and Labour get a stinking majority expect a massive outcry for PR. Yes, I can see that. Not the full fat party list version, which would be really unwise and democratically disastrous, but a hybrid system like AV or making AMS the system UK wide.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 11, 2024 20:57:44 GMT
If this poll is anything like accurate come 4th July and Labour get a stinking majority expect a massive outcry for PR. This result would be absolute perfection for advocates for a fair voting system! Please bring it on! Labour getting a HUGE majority with 38% of the vote (probably on a very low turnout too) would demonstrate to those on the right of politics the sheer madness of FPTP. They've largely been opposed to it because it has always been the centre-left of politics throughout my lifetime that has been divided across multiple parties; so they've benefitted from it massively in the recent decades. Such a result would give the Tories a very nasty taste of their own medicine and could only encourage at least some on the right to take up support for some form of PR. Just for the hell of it, I put the following figures in Elec Calc (usual caveats): Lab 25%, Con 18%, RefUK 17%, LD 16%, Green 15%.. ...would you believe Labour STILL end up with an overall working majority (given SF absences)! LAB 325 Con 187 LD 79 RefUK 17 Green 3 Nats 18 NI 18 Madness!
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2024 21:05:18 GMT
Hmm, I was expecting a little bounce for the LibDems but +4 seems a bit much. Still, double crossover, anyone? Good banter and enticing sexual innuendo. A little bounce coupled with a double crossover would be delightful, but not with my state of balance or my lumbar region pains and stiff neck taking me to the chiropractor on Thursday and the local and very helpful pharmacist yesterday. But I do encourage younger members to embrace a belated summer of love ... if they can!
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 11, 2024 21:50:53 GMT
Hmm, I was expecting a little bounce for the LibDems but +4 seems a bit much. Still, double crossover, anyone? Good banter and enticing sexual innuendo. A little bounce coupled with a double crossover would be delightful, but not with my state of balance or my lumbar region pains and stiff neck taking me to the chiropractor on Thursday and the local and very helpful pharmacist yesterday. But I do encourage younger members to embrace a belated summer of love ... if they can! Embrace the possibilities Carlton, with Crazy Davey there are no limits!
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2024 22:53:15 GMT
Post by batman on Jun 11, 2024 22:53:15 GMT
Good banter and enticing sexual innuendo. A little bounce coupled with a double crossover would be delightful, but not with my state of balance or my lumbar region pains and stiff neck taking me to the chiropractor on Thursday and the local and very helpful pharmacist yesterday. But I do encourage younger members to embrace a belated summer of love ... if they can! Embrace the possibilities Carlton, with Crazy Davey there are no limits! there was (maybe still is?) a Viz character called Ravy Davey Gravy. He uses everyday sounds to construct techno records. Perhaps Sir Ed could look into him as a role model
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,290
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Post by iain on Jun 13, 2024 19:07:46 GMT
First poll with Reform overtaking to the Conservatives. And, possibly more relevantly when it comes to seat numbers, the Lib Dems still at 14%.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 13, 2024 19:18:32 GMT
First crossover, and lowest Lab for a long time
LAB: 37% (-1) REF: 19% (+2) CON: 18% (-) LDEM: 14% (-1) GRN: 7% (-1)
via @yougov, 12 Jun
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 13, 2024 19:31:17 GMT
Oof. Baxtering that gives
Lab 464 Con 71 LDm 69 Rfm 5 Grn 2
SNP 14 PCy 3 Other 3 NI 18
I think we're hitting the sweet spot where it's the Con-LDm gap that governs the scale of the disaster. If you take 1 off the Cons and give it to LDm, then Cons have 58 seats to the LibDems 76. Con campaign team must be bricking it - it's stll only one poll, but the trajectory is set.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Jun 13, 2024 19:32:50 GMT
First crossover, and lowest Lab for a long time LAB: 37% (-1) REF: 19% (+2) CON: 18% (-) LDEM: 14% (-1) GRN: 7% (-1) via @yougov, 12 Jun Smells off this does. YG seems to have a thing for Reform.
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,293
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YouGov
Jun 13, 2024 19:52:03 GMT
Post by graham on Jun 13, 2024 19:52:03 GMT
Oof. Baxtering that gives Lab 464 Con 71 LDm 69 Rfm 5 Grn 2 SNP 14 PCy 3 Other 3 NI 18 I think we're hitting the sweet spot where it's the Con-LDm gap that governs the scale of the disaster. If you take 1 off the Cons and give it to LDm, then Cons have 58 seats to the LibDems 76. Con campaign team must be bricking it - it's stll only one poll, but the trajectory is set. On the other hand, Reform has dropped 2 points with BMG
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 13, 2024 19:56:25 GMT
Oof. Baxtering that gives Lab 464 Con 71 LDm 69 Rfm 5 Grn 2 SNP 14 PCy 3 Other 3 NI 18 I think we're hitting the sweet spot where it's the Con-LDm gap that governs the scale of the disaster. If you take 1 off the Cons and give it to LDm, then Cons have 58 seats to the LibDems 76. Con campaign team must be bricking it - it's stll only one poll, but the trajectory is set. On the other hand, Reform has dropped 2 points with BMG And up 1 with Techne. Yes, you're right, this is only one poll, and probably an outlier - but for all that, crossover has happened, and it will be on the news. You cannot overestimate the impact this will have on Conservative morale, at HQ and in the field. And it makes fertile ground for LibDems (and Greens) too in some of the stretch targets - start talking this up to wobbly centre-right Cons, that the only way to stop Reform is to switch to LibDem/Green. The bar charts draw themselves, and the leaflets write themselves.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 13, 2024 19:58:03 GMT
Was wondering which polling company would get the "crossover" result!
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