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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 5, 2024 19:53:20 GMT
What mad s*** are the Tories going to promise in their manifesto if the crossover does occur? Inheritance Tax, though everybody knows it doesn't raise much but hey, the 1% don't like it and the Telegraph needs its chin tickling. ECHR decision, maybe even referendum, because that might at least get one bullet to skim the knee of Reform Death penalty decision, maybe even referendum, because if you're on the Titanic, every 3rd Class passenger is a life-raft.
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observer
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YouGov
Jun 5, 2024 20:07:41 GMT
via mobile
Post by observer on Jun 5, 2024 20:07:41 GMT
Does anyone have any idea about at what point seats start falling like ninepins for Reform?
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 5, 2024 20:18:23 GMT
Does anyone have any idea about at what point seats start falling like ninepins for Reform? A while back I was told about the dramatically titled "FPTP Kill Zone". The notion was that from 25% of the vote and up, you win a bigger percentage of seats than the percentage of your vote. From 21% and down, you get fewer seats than votes. It was described in terms of the Tories, as their vote drops through this range, their MPs are taken out at a startling rate. I'd imagine the same works in reverse as your vote rises.
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YouGov
Jun 5, 2024 20:24:05 GMT
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 5, 2024 20:24:05 GMT
What mad s*** are the Tories going to promise in their manifesto if the crossover does occur? Inheritance Tax, though everybody knows it doesn't raise much but hey, the 1% don't like it and the Telegraph needs its chin tickling. ECHR decision, maybe even referendum, because that might at least get one bullet to skim the knee of Reform Death penalty decision, maybe even referendum, because if you're on the Titanic, every 3rd Class passenger is a life-raft. I'm not the 1%, my dad's disabled and before that he was a nomadic German biker and then a nightwatchman, whilst my mum was a barmaid and then a care worker. In short, I will inherit nothing. However, I don't believe in inheritance tax either, I think it's morally wrong. I also would like to see the ECHR withdrawn from and a soft slow build up to a return to capital punishment. It would be nice if the Conservative Party was conservative.
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YouGov
Jun 5, 2024 20:41:05 GMT
Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 5, 2024 20:41:05 GMT
Inheritance Tax, though everybody knows it doesn't raise much but hey, the 1% don't like it and the Telegraph needs its chin tickling. ECHR decision, maybe even referendum, because that might at least get one bullet to skim the knee of Reform Death penalty decision, maybe even referendum, because if you're on the Titanic, every 3rd Class passenger is a life-raft. I'm not the 1%, my dad's disabled and before that he was a nomadic German biker and then a nightwatchman, whilst my mum was a barmaid and then a care worker. In short, I will inherit nothing. However, I don't believe in inheritance tax either, I think it's morally wrong. I also would like to see the ECHR withdrawn from and a soft slow build up to a return to capital punishment. It would be nice if the Conservative Party was conservative. And this is how I know that small-c conservatives are going to be in for a very bumpy ride as the push/pull of outside and inside forces go about reshaping the Conservative Party. It's perfectly acceptable to be a conservative (small c) who believes in law and order, justice, and morality, whilst also rejecting the requirement for a death penalty. This is how I know, as a broadly liberal person in a broadly liberal party that I could never join the Conservatives you wish to conjure up: the state shouldn't be in the business of killing its own citizens. Moderate conservatives may look at the Republican Party in the US and see a warning from the future. That Party is totally lost to unhinged extremists who want to go further and further and further, never satisfied with anything despite going so far with abortion rights, gun control, library purges and so on. Now is the reckoning for the UK Conservatives: be "true blue" and never stop being increasingly extreme, or remember that birds cannot fly with their right wings alone.
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Post by redtony on Jun 5, 2024 20:57:45 GMT
polls are not predictions they are what voters say how they will vote today not sometime in the future or in a months time but today
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 5, 2024 21:20:16 GMT
polls are not predictions they are what voters say how they will vote today not sometime in the future or in a months time but today Sure, but that's not really what matters. I don't think anyone here expects Reform to be within two points of the Tories on election night, but the polls can cause major panic among the parties. If Reform overtakes the Tories, who knows how they will react. Will there be mass defections of activists and associations? How much money will pour in? What policy stances does Sunak take to stem the bleeding? Through these ways and more, a crossover poll, which I predicted months ago for the record, could have major ramifications for the actual outcome.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Jun 5, 2024 21:48:17 GMT
polls are not predictions they are what voters say how they will vote today not sometime in the future or in a months time but today Sure, but that's not really what matters. I don't think anyone here expects Reform to be within two points of the Tories on election night, but the polls can cause major panic among the parties. If Reform overtakes the Tories, who knows how they will react. Will there be mass defections of activists and associations? How much money will pour in? What policy stances does Sunak take to stem the bleeding? Through these ways and more, a crossover poll, which I predicted months ago for the record, could have major ramifications for the actual outcome. You expect Reform to be that far ahead?!
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YouGov
Jun 5, 2024 23:49:58 GMT
Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 5, 2024 23:49:58 GMT
What mad s*** are the Tories going to promise in their manifesto if the crossover does occur? A policy of deporting Rishi Sunak would probably be their best bet at this point.
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YouGov
Jun 5, 2024 23:59:55 GMT
Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 5, 2024 23:59:55 GMT
Applying YouGov's latest poll to their MRP would give Reform three seats: - Boston & Skegness: 2% majority
- Clacton: 1% majority
- Ashfield: 0.3% majority
They would be within 5% of winning the following constituencies: - Great Yarmouth (Lab)
- South Basildon & East Thurrock (Lab)
- Rayleigh & Wickford (Lab)
- Basildon & Billericay (Lab)
- Havant (Lab)
- Castle Point (Con)
- South Holland & The Deepings (Con)
- Louth & Horncastle (Con)
- North East Cambridgeshire (Con)
- South West Norfolk (Con)
- Bridlington & The Wold (tossup)
- Gosport (tossup)
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 6, 2024 1:04:08 GMT
Applying YouGov's latest poll to their MRP would give Reform three seats: - Boston & Skegness: 2% majority
- Clacton: 1% majority
- Ashfield: 0.3% majority
They would be within 5% of winning the following constituencies: - Great Yarmouth (Lab)
- South Basildon & East Thurrock (Lab)
- Rayleigh & Wickford (Lab)
- Basildon & Billericay (Lab)
- Havant (Lab)
- Castle Point (Con)
- South Holland & The Deepings (Con)
- Louth & Horncastle (Con)
- North East Cambridgeshire (Con)
- South West Norfolk (Con)
- Bridlington & The Wold (tossup)
- Gosport (tossup)
"South West Norfolk" Hook it into my veins.
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YouGov
Jun 6, 2024 2:25:23 GMT
via mobile
Post by evergreenadam on Jun 6, 2024 2:25:23 GMT
Applying YouGov's latest poll to their MRP would give Reform three seats: - Boston & Skegness: 2% majority
- Clacton: 1% majority
- Ashfield: 0.3% majority
They would be within 5% of winning the following constituencies: - Great Yarmouth (Lab)
- South Basildon & East Thurrock (Lab)
- Rayleigh & Wickford (Lab)
- Basildon & Billericay (Lab)
- Havant (Lab)
- Castle Point (Con)
- South Holland & The Deepings (Con)
- Louth & Horncastle (Con)
- North East Cambridgeshire (Con)
- South West Norfolk (Con)
- Bridlington & The Wold (tossup)
- Gosport (tossup)
"South West Norfolk" Hook it into my veins. That would be so funny. She just crashed the Tory party.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 6, 2024 8:12:05 GMT
What mad s*** are the Tories going to promise in their manifesto if the crossover does occur? A policy of deporting Rishi Sunak would probably be their best bet at this point. to Rwanda perhaps, so we'd be pretty sure he would be staying put.
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YouGov
Jun 7, 2024 16:15:36 GMT
via mobile
johng likes this
Post by hullenedge on Jun 7, 2024 16:15:36 GMT
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Post by islington on Jun 7, 2024 16:46:58 GMT
Does anyone have any idea about at what point seats start falling like ninepins for Reform? A while back I was told about the dramatically titled "FPTP Kill Zone". The notion was that from 25% of the vote and up, you win a bigger percentage of seats than the percentage of your vote. From 21% and down, you get fewer seats than votes. It was described in terms of the Tories, as their vote drops through this range, their MPs are taken out at a startling rate. I'd imagine the same works in reverse as your vote rises. Well, yes, but it varies a lot from one party to another depending on how its vote is distributed.
Suppose you win 20% of the vote nationally. If this is unevenly distributed, you will probably pick up a good number of seats in your areas of strength, where you are polling 35 or 40% or even more. But if your distribution is relatively smooth, so that you pick up a respectable vote almost everywhere but exceed 35% hardly anywhere, then you will wind up with very few seats, perhaps even zero.
The textbook example of this is the 1983 GE, when Labour only narrowly beat the Lib/SDP Alliance in terms of vote share (27.6 to 25.4); but Labour's vote tended to be concentrated in traditional industrial areas and central London, while support for the Alliance was much more evenly distributed - the resulting seat count favoured Labour by 209 to 23.
It also depends on how fragmented the political landscape is. In the same election, the Tories got 42.4%, and in a strong two-party environment such as the US this would be a losing total. But in 1983, with their opponents divided, the Tories took 397 seats.
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peterl
Green
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Post by peterl on Jun 10, 2024 13:48:25 GMT
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YouGov
Jun 10, 2024 16:56:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on Jun 10, 2024 16:56:47 GMT
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YouGov
Jun 10, 2024 17:47:38 GMT
Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 10, 2024 17:47:38 GMT
There we go, concrete evidence that the public love Crazy Davey! (Crazy Davey... I might have to trademark that phrase).
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2024 8:05:05 GMT
Post by arnieg on Jun 11, 2024 8:05:05 GMT
Yougov currently polling with questions that seem designed to elicit information about the post election civil war. (How likely are you to vote for party x in 2028; if you are not going to vote Conservative is it because .. failed to stop small boats; tackle immigration; make brexit work ..). Also 2024 tactical voting question.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 11, 2024 16:04:12 GMT
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