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Post by hullenedge on Jun 14, 2024 8:27:07 GMT
I wasn't alive to experience 1983, but all the data from the canvassing I've been doing so far suggests the Tories are fucked. Spoke to ex Tories this evening who have never voted anything but Tory. I have this conversation on every knock so far this campaign Given my vocation, I feel unable to verbalise strongly what I really want to say about this particular revelation (given I was 18 at the time and running the local canvass). So. I will tag john07 , whom I feel will have the requisite words and, if he is too polite, maybe carlton43 will deliver the appropriate withering response. If not, ArmchairCritic : "Prepare the scaffold." May I chip in? The 83 locals were okay but not outstanding however once the election was called Labour's support dropped by about 30% in the WWC areas of York. Defence/unilateralism was a big vote loser for Labour and folk switched to us (they made that clear on the doorsteps). We did notice a tailing off in our support, mainly with Tory-inclined supporters, towards the end (turned off by 'triumphalism'). We also convinced ourselves that Vince Cable would outpoll Alex Lyon because of the polls although the canvass returns didn't show an SDP surge. Heard Maggie speak. She was v.good. Michael Foot was completely different but v.good. A natural orator but not suited to 1983. Denis Healey was a 'smash' and really should have been Labour leader. We would have still won but more by treading ground. Looking back the Alliance were a trillion miles away from replacing Labour. The centre support was transitory and tactical. A socialist manifesto naturally appealed to Socialists. Labour's support was hard rock in their heartlands and very much within the radical MC. Our landslide was manufactured by the system and temporary support, which turned out to be more longer lasting thanks to unilateralism. It was also disappointing to fall just short of expectations ( shouldn't be greedy) and we could sense that some voters were repelled by Mrs T.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,454
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2024 10:11:45 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2024 10:11:45 GMT
Rother Valley has been cited recently as one of the places where Tory support is holding up better than average (last month's local results offer support to this) So if they end up really haemorrhaging support to Reform even there, then maybe a Canada 1993 extinction level event might really be on the cards.
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2024 10:29:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by observer on Jun 14, 2024 10:29:03 GMT
Patrick Flynn claims that a pollster contacted him about Yougov's latest poll putting Reform on 19% and the Conservatives on 18%. He said that before Yougovs recent change of methodology the figures would have been Reform 18%, Con 15%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,454
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2024 10:42:29 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2024 10:42:29 GMT
And the LibDems just behind the Tories on 14%.
Maybe notable that Labour still manage 40% on this measure too, given no other credible pollster has yet had them below that in this campaign.
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2024 11:06:11 GMT
via mobile
jamie likes this
Post by evergreenadam on Jun 14, 2024 11:06:11 GMT
Given my vocation, I feel unable to verbalise strongly what I really want to say about this particular revelation (given I was 18 at the time and running the local canvass). So. I will tag john07 , whom I feel will have the requisite words and, if he is too polite, maybe carlton43 will deliver the appropriate withering response. If not, ArmchairCritic : "Prepare the scaffold." What is it that you are trying to imply? 1983 was a very bad year in my life but I did take an interest in the GE. I toured around North Yorkshire, Teesside and Durham attempting to 'get a feel' and spoke to many contacts in the south by phone. For me it seemed a form of structural consolidation on the right. Everything tightened up and became more solid, robust and safe. One knew all through that campaign (one I followed closely but took no part in) that the result would be good and considerably better than 79. I was largely unaware of the centre/centre-left/left machinations as they seemed a bit irrelevant to the right; but of course their division of the vote was quite pivotal to the Thatcher victory. I believe many in the Conservatives were less aware of the structural reasons for their success, attributing it all to Thatcher, events and their own hard work. We do look as if we are now in sight of an actual crossover that will stick? If it does, it will be a very major political event. Once the Conservative core diminishes past 20% and approaches 17%, 16% and even 15% the polling mechanics under FPTP will approach a cruel devastation with the seats potential dropping from 175 rapidly towards 65 or even worse. It would release a significant number of extra Labour gains, quite a few LD gains and even a handful of Reform gains. At such a point the Conservative party could implode or just pause and slowly rebuild back to a better position? At such a moment they could face a reverse takeover, a hostile takeover or a negotiated merger and rebranding? Anything might be possible. Whatever happens there will be a large vacuum gap on the right. The centre of gravity will not slip to the left at all and might even start to move sharply to the right instead. It could all be very interesting. The right is not under any threat, but the Conservative brand is very exposed. That is the difference. The centre/left would do well to hope for a Conservative survival and revival, for without it they will assuredly face a much tougher and less acceptable opposition!! That seems to be a sound assessment. The Tories have alienated virtually every part of their natural support for one reason or another over the last few years. This not feel like 1997 when 30% was generally accepted as the floor for Conservative vote share in a bad year and the economy had started growing, even though the impact of the early 1990s recession and ERM exit still loomed large in the public’s memory. Back then there were still people whether due to class, age or tradition who would always vote Tory come rain or shine. The Tory brand was not popular but there was no sense it would die out. The Tories now lack any sort of offer to the country’s problems and the public have laid the blame for those problems squarely at their door, as I thought they would once the reality of Brexit failed to meet their expectations. Someone recently commented that the Tory brand has become as tainted that of as Ratners jewellers became in the 1990s. If you are on the right then I can see why a clean break and the creation of a new brand with new ideas would be appealing, though whether Reform offers that is deeply uncertain.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 14, 2024 11:52:22 GMT
Given my vocation, I feel unable to verbalise strongly what I really want to say about this particular revelation (given I was 18 at the time and running the local canvass). So. I will tag john07 , whom I feel will have the requisite words and, if he is too polite, maybe carlton43 will deliver the appropriate withering response. If not, ArmchairCritic : "Prepare the scaffold." I wasn't alive to experience 1997 Same here (I'm 26). I was quite surprised recently when discussing politics with someone online who I had assumed to be a similar age to me, only for it to emerge that he was born in 2008 and has no memories of a non-Conservative government!
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graham
Non-Aligned
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2024 11:56:03 GMT
Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 11:56:03 GMT
I am very critical of the media for having included Farage in the Debates at all - and am surprised that Galloway has not made a big fuss of this. Reform has todate had no MPs elected under its label and has but two councillors. Galloway has a stronger case for inclusion.I think the Broadcasters are at some risk of the major players - particularly the Tories - seeking to make a legal intervention to restrict his coverage.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 14, 2024 12:04:08 GMT
I don't like them but Reform have a much much stronger claim to be included than The Workers Party.
Reform are the successor to the Brexit Party who whilst didn't win any seats, did receive 644,000 votes last time while only standing in 275 seats. Polling wise they're a credible too.
Reform are standing in 609 seats this year just behind the two Green Parties who are standing 618 (629 if you include NI). The Workers Party are on 152.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Jun 14, 2024 12:17:11 GMT
Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 12:17:11 GMT
Reform is not in any legal sense the same party as the Brexit Party or the original Ukip prior to that despite having many of the same players - indeed some argue it is not really a party at all but rather a company owned by Farage. The votes cast for the Brexit Party in 2019 are not relevant here, and the fact remains that no MP has yet been elected under the Reform label.Ofcom does have rules which the Broadcasters are obliged to follow regarding how much coverage should be given during an election campaign to parties related to whether they have Major or Minor party status - and votes cast in the ballot box does override polling data. There is a strong case for arguing that currently the Broadcasters are abusing their positions by failing to comply with the Ofcom rules.
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Post by carolus on Jun 14, 2024 12:21:20 GMT
Reform is not in any legal sense the same party as the Brexit Party or the original Ukip prior to that despite having many of the same players - indeed some argue it is not really a party at all but rather a company owned by Farage. The votes cast for the Brexit Party in 2019 are not relevant here, and the fact remains that no MP has yet been elected under the Reform label.Ofcom does have rules which the Broadcasters are obliged to follow regarding how much coverage should be given during an election campaign to parties related to whether they have Major or Minor party status - and votes cast in the ballot box does override polling data. There is a strong case for arguing that currently the Broadcasters are abusing their positions by failing to comply with the Ofcom rules. I'm not sure that's true, is it? Reform UK Party Limited (11694875) which is the legal entity, was The Brexit Party Ltd from 2018-2021.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 14, 2024 12:22:33 GMT
I am very critical of the media for having included Farage in the Debates at all - and am surprised that Galloway has not made a big fuss of this. Reform has todate had no MPs elected under its label and has but two councillors. Galloway has a stronger case for inclusion.I think the Broadcasters are at some risk of the major players - particularly the Tories - seeking to make a legal intervention to restrict his coverage. I'd have thought the exact opposite- next week the BBC is choosing to platform the leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, and SNP, whilst excluding the leader of the party which has come second behind Labour in an opinion poll. Not sure how that decision can be justified.
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 14, 2024 12:23:38 GMT
Your arguments for excluding the party polling in joint second place, are quite plainly, ridiculous
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graham
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Jun 14, 2024 12:30:49 GMT
Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 12:30:49 GMT
Your arguments for excluding the party polling in joint second place, are quite plainly, ridiculous I am relying on the Ofcom rules. Has Reform been awarded Major party status? It can reasonably be contended that the Reform boost arises from the disproporionate coverage given to it by the Broadcasters! The Reclaim Party, the SDP and the residual Ukip would doubtless rise in the polls if treated in the same way. Essentially, the Broadcasters have latched on to Farage's charasmatic personality whilst ignoring the party's failure to perform well at election to date.
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 14, 2024 12:36:04 GMT
Your arguments for excluding the party polling in joint second place, are quite plainly, ridiculous I am relying on the Ofcom rules. Has Reform been awarded Major party status? All I know is that in the last 3 weeks of canvassing Reform is the only party other than Labour that anyone has out and out told me they are voting for.
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graham
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Jun 14, 2024 12:37:02 GMT
Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 12:37:02 GMT
I am very critical of the media for having included Farage in the Debates at all - and am surprised that Galloway has not made a big fuss of this. Reform has todate had no MPs elected under its label and has but two councillors. Galloway has a stronger case for inclusion.I think the Broadcasters are at some risk of the major players - particularly the Tories - seeking to make a legal intervention to restrict his coverage. I'd have thought the exact opposite- next week the BBC is choosing to platform the leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, and SNP, whilst excluding the leader of the party which has come second behind Labour in an opinion poll. Not sure how that decision can be justified. Those parties all have a record of winning seats in Parliament and local councils. Reform has none at all.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 14, 2024 13:03:06 GMT
I am relying on the Ofcom rules. Has Reform been awarded Major party status? All I know is that in the last 3 weeks of canvassing Reform is the only party other than Labour that anyone has out and out told me they are voting for. I hadn't noticed this but yeah fair point
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 14, 2024 13:07:20 GMT
I'd have thought the exact opposite- next week the BBC is choosing to platform the leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, and SNP, whilst excluding the leader of the party which has come second behind Labour in an opinion poll. Not sure how that decision can be justified. Those parties all have a record of winning seats in Parliament and local councils. Reform has none at all. The main reason you don't want them involved is that they are right wing and your not.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 14, 2024 13:58:13 GMT
I'd have thought the exact opposite- next week the BBC is choosing to platform the leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, and SNP, whilst excluding the leader of the party which has come second behind Labour in an opinion poll. Not sure how that decision can be justified. Those parties all have a record of winning seats in Parliament and local councils. Reform has none at all. But one should not become fixated on winning seats as the sole arbiter of 'worth', 'usefulness' or being deserving of recognition for inclusion to hustings programmes'. Polls do have some significance (and I speak as one who generally is a disparager of polls) and raw hard votes are for me more indicative than seats as to popular support. The SNP can generate a lot of seats from a small niche very efficient use of a mere 2.5-4% of the whole. If Reform can get to second place in the polls on about 20% or more then it would be a minor scandal to omit them from the discussion; and a serious error as they would turn it into an issue of itself and wring perhaps another 3% from it (as much as the SNP habitually get!).
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,790
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 14, 2024 14:05:09 GMT
There is this debate every election. If we're going to have debates, and personally I doubt their worth, then at some point, outside of the actual election period, there needs to be clear and transparent criteria for inclusion set down.
Personally I think standing in say more than 80% of seats is a far stronger case than opinion polling... but if it's clear and set out in advance at least everyone knows where they stand.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Jun 14, 2024 14:09:32 GMT
Post by graham on Jun 14, 2024 14:09:32 GMT
Those parties all have a record of winning seats in Parliament and local councils. Reform has none at all. The main reason you don't want them involved is that they are right wing and your not. Slitting the rightwing vote is actually helpful to left of centre parties.
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