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Post by manchesterman on Apr 6, 2023 17:16:28 GMT
You have to now start to wonder if - with a concerted effort at pushing tactical voting (a big IF obviously) - it's conceivable that there could be NO Tory MPs in London after the next GE?
It would take a lot of things to align perfectly of course, but of the 21 in situ right now, I would certainly expect the majority to go.
I would say 8 are almost certs: Kensington, Wimbledon, C&W, Chipping Barnet, Chingford & WG, Hendon, Cities of L&W, Finchley & GG.
The middle section depend on how big the overall swing is + X factors : Uxbridge & SR [johnson houdini?], Harrow E, Sutton & Cheam [can LDs up their game& successfully promote tactical voting?], Croydon S [hapless Minister alert], Bromley & Chislehurst, Chelsea & Fulham.
The 7 safest seats (25% or more lead) are: Beckenham, Bexleyheath & Crayford, RNP, Romford, Old Bexley & Sidcup, Hornchurch & Upminster and safest of all Orpington.
Given the scale of the likely swing (as it stands) all 7 could well be marginal to some degree or other, and whilst it's unlikely that there would be a complete wipeout, it can't be discounted entirely!
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Post by rcronald on Apr 6, 2023 17:22:52 GMT
You have to now start to wonder if - with a concerted effort at pushing tactical voting (a big IF obviously) - it's conceivable that there could be NO Tory MPs in London after the next GE? It would take a lot of things to align perfectly of course, but of the 21 in situ right now, I would certainly expect the majority to go. I would say 8 are almost certs: Kensington, Wimbledon, C&W, Chipping Barnet, Chingford & WG, Hendon, Cities of L&W, Finchley & GG. The middle section depend on how big the overall swing is + X factors : Uxbridge & SR [johnson houdini?], Harrow E, Sutton & Cheam [can LDs up their game& successfully promote tactical voting?], Croydon S [hapless Minister alert], Bromley & Chislehurst, Chelsea & Fulham. The 7 safest seats (25% or more lead) are: Beckenham, Bexleyheath & Crayford, RNP, Romford, Old Bexley & Sidcup, Hornchurch & Upminster and safest of all Orpington. Given the scale of the likely swing (as it stands) all 7 could well be marginal to some degree or other, and whilst it's unlikely that there would be a complete wipeout, it can't be discounted entirely! The Tories won Orpington by 45.9% (23% swing required) and Hornchurch & Upminster by 43.2% (21.6% swing required), so while the government is unpopular, 23% seems high... |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 6, 2023 17:25:41 GMT
You have to now start to wonder if - with a concerted effort at pushing tactical voting (a big IF obviously) - it's conceivable that there could be NO Tory MPs in London after the next GE? It would take a lot of things to align perfectly of course, but of the 21 in situ right now, I would certainly expect the majority to go. I would say 8 are almost certs: Kensington, Wimbledon, C&W, Chipping Barnet, Chingford & WG, Hendon, Cities of L&W, Finchley & GG. The middle section depend on how big the overall swing is + X factors : Uxbridge & SR [johnson houdini?], Harrow E, Sutton & Cheam [can LDs up their game& successfully promote tactical voting?], Croydon S [hapless Minister alert], Bromley & Chislehurst, Chelsea & Fulham. The 7 safest seats (25% or more lead) are: Beckenham, Bexleyheath & Crayford, RNP, Romford, Old Bexley & Sidcup, Hornchurch & Upminster and safest of all Orpington. Given the scale of the likely swing (as it stands) all 7 could well be marginal to some degree or other, and whilst it's unlikely that there would be a complete wipeout, it can't be discounted entirely!I hate to be a wet blanket, but I think it can. |
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Apr 6, 2023 20:44:12 GMT
Post by batman on Apr 6, 2023 20:44:12 GMT
London is increasingly a foreign country as anyone visiting it realizes. The English speaking English will soon be an oppressed minority in their own capital. If by "English" you mean of native English descent ethnically that happened a while ago. I wonder how long ago it happened in Southall. That can't be much more than 2 or 3% white British. presumably you're referring to the community of Southall rather than its constituency, which does have 2 much less BAME-dominated wards. There's probably a bit more white British than that, mostly in the council estates. The white population of Southall has risen a bit in recent years as I understand it, but more White Other (e.g. Polish) than White British. |
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Apr 6, 2023 20:48:01 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Apr 6, 2023 20:48:01 GMT
If by "English" you mean of native English descent ethnically that happened a while ago. I wonder how long ago it happened in Southall. That can't be much more than 2 or 3% white British. presumably you're referring to the community of Southall rather than its constituency, which does have 2 much less BAME-dominated wards. There's probably a bit more white British than that, mostly in the council estates. The white population of Southall has risen a bit in recent years as I understand it, but more White Other (e.g. Polish) than White British. Yes - I meant Southall proper. I'm guessing it became minority white British in the 60s or so? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 6, 2023 21:09:47 GMT
presumably you're referring to the community of Southall rather than its constituency, which does have 2 much less BAME-dominated wards. There's probably a bit more white British than that, mostly in the council estates. The white population of Southall has risen a bit in recent years as I understand it, but more White Other (e.g. Polish) than White British. Yes - I meant Southall proper. I'm guessing it became minority white British in the 60s or so? I have the 1981 census and the two wards of Glebe and Northcote (roughly corresponding to the Southall Green and Southall Broadway wards) were overwhelningly non-white then (though it wasn't phrased in that way) but the other wards (Dormers Wells, Mount Pleasant and Waxlow) were much more even and a couple of those (from memory) still had a white majority then. Dormers Wells is dominated by estates but voted Conservative in the 70s. I will see if I can dig out those figures but I'm not sure 'White British' were a minority even then and certainly would not have been in 1971 (or earlier). Of course the Asian figures peaked in 1991 and have declined quite a bit since then in the core Southall wards (some of the grim estates in Dormers Wells are heavily Somalian now) and as Barnaby says lots of Poles etc |
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Apr 6, 2023 22:30:25 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Apr 6, 2023 22:30:25 GMT
London is increasingly a foreign country as anyone visiting it realizes. The English speaking English will soon be an oppressed minority in their own capital. Minority, yes Oppressed, no I have never felt oppressed or uncomfortable as an ethnic minority, whether it’s in London (c.45% white British) generally, or Croydon (c.40% white British) or in my neighbourhood (50% white, 40% Asian) or when i was campaigning in Southall (population less than 10%, candidates 17%) during the by-election in 2007. I have never felt uncomfortable based on my race anywhere in London, and with a few exceptions I've very rarely felt like it was a foreign country. But I have in some places up north - some of which were far less diverse on paper than London. There's a very noticeably different sense of integration in the capital (particularly south of the river, which chimes with what you say about Croydon) which I haven't really found anywhere else in the UK. |
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Post by robert1 on Apr 13, 2023 14:25:18 GMT
Con 27 (+1) Lab 44 (-2) LD 9 = Grn 7 = Ref 6 (-1) SNP 4 (+1) Note fieldwork 5-6th April
Not sure where to put it but worth noting that More in Common has a poll mentioned on Politico Playbook this morning as Con 30, Lab 44, LD 10, Grn 6, Ref 5. Says the narrowest lead the think tank has recorded since July last year.
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Apr 13, 2023 17:47:30 GMT
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Post by londonseal80 on Apr 13, 2023 17:47:30 GMT
You have to now start to wonder if - with a concerted effort at pushing tactical voting (a big IF obviously) - it's conceivable that there could be NO Tory MPs in London after the next GE? It would take a lot of things to align perfectly of course, but of the 21 in situ right now, I would certainly expect the majority to go. I would say 8 are almost certs: Kensington, Wimbledon, C&W, Chipping Barnet, Chingford & WG, Hendon, Cities of L&W, Finchley & GG. The middle section depend on how big the overall swing is + X factors : Uxbridge & SR [johnson houdini?], Harrow E, Sutton & Cheam [can LDs up their game& successfully promote tactical voting?], Croydon S [hapless Minister alert], Bromley & Chislehurst, Chelsea & Fulham. The 7 safest seats (25% or more lead) are: Beckenham, Bexleyheath & Crayford, RNP, Romford, Old Bexley & Sidcup, Hornchurch & Upminster and safest of all Orpington. Given the scale of the likely swing (as it stands) all 7 could well be marginal to some degree or other, and whilst it's unlikely that there would be a complete wipeout, it can't be discounted entirely! The Tories won Orpington by 45.9% (23% swing required) and Hornchurch & Upminster by 43.2% (21.6% swing required), so while the government is unpopular, 23% seems high... I think the Tories will hold Orpington, Hornchurch, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Ruislip-Northwood but marginal majorites in the latter two perhaps similar sort of majorities to likes of Epsom and Hertsmere will get too (around 3-4k). Wimbledon is a dead cert loss to the LDs will be probably end with the Conservatives in a distant third and become the new Hornsey and Wood Green. Both Sutton seats will go Lib Dem too maybe with Carshalton being more marginal. |
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Apr 13, 2023 18:08:32 GMT
Post by andrewp on Apr 13, 2023 18:08:32 GMT
The Tories won Orpington by 45.9% (23% swing required) and Hornchurch & Upminster by 43.2% (21.6% swing required), so while the government is unpopular, 23% seems high... I think the Tories will hold Orpington, Hornchurch, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Ruislip-Northwood but marginal majorites in the latter two perhaps similar sort of majorities to likes of Epsom and Hertsmere will get too (around 3-4k). Wimbledon is a dead cert loss to the LDs will be probably end with the Conservatives in a distant third and become the new Hornsey and Wood Green. Both Sutton seats will go Lib Dem too maybe with Carshalton being more marginal. Assuming the new boundaries are approved in the current state the new Bromley and Biggin Hill is safer than Ruislip- Northwood. |
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Post by rcronald on Apr 13, 2023 18:37:10 GMT
The Tories won Orpington by 45.9% (23% swing required) and Hornchurch & Upminster by 43.2% (21.6% swing required), so while the government is unpopular, 23% seems high... I think the Tories will hold Orpington, Hornchurch, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Ruislip-Northwood but marginal majorites in the latter two perhaps similar sort of majorities to likes of Epsom and Hertsmere will get too (around 3-4k). Wimbledon is a dead cert loss to the LDs will be probably end with the Conservatives in a distant third and become the new Hornsey and Wood Green. Both Sutton seats will go Lib Dem too maybe with Carshalton being more marginal. While I don’t know the Wimbledon area very well (or anything south of the Thames), I am very familiar with most of the ‘Hornsey & Wood Green’ constituency, and I highly doubt any constituency in the UK has as many woke, middle class guardianistas as Hornsey & Wood Green. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 13, 2023 18:44:37 GMT
I think the Tories will hold Orpington, Hornchurch, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Ruislip-Northwood but marginal majorites in the latter two perhaps similar sort of majorities to likes of Epsom and Hertsmere will get too (around 3-4k). Wimbledon is a dead cert loss to the LDs will be probably end with the Conservatives in a distant third and become the new Hornsey and Wood Green. Both Sutton seats will go Lib Dem too maybe with Carshalton being more marginal. While I don’t know the Wimbledon area very well (or anything south of the Thames), I am very familiar with most of the ‘Hornsey & Wood Green’ constituency, and I highly doubt any constituency in the UK has as many woke, middle class guardianistas as Hornsey & Wood Green. Yeah Wimbledon is not close - there are small areas of the seat that are a bit like that, but overall no. Streatham would be the nearest South London equivalent to H & WG |
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Apr 13, 2023 18:48:00 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Apr 13, 2023 18:48:00 GMT
While I don’t know the Wimbledon area very well (or anything south of the Thames), I am very familiar with most of the ‘Hornsey & Wood Green’ constituency, and I highly doubt any constituency in the UK has as many woke, middle class guardianistas as Hornsey & Wood Green. Yeah Wimbledon is not close - there are small areas of the seat that are a bit like that, but overall no. Streatham would be the nearest South London equivalent to H & WG The new Hornsey & Friern Barnet seat is going to be even more cartoonishingly guardianista. |
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Apr 13, 2023 19:02:43 GMT
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Post by londonseal80 on Apr 13, 2023 19:02:43 GMT
Yeah Wimbledon is not close - there are small areas of the seat that are a bit like that, but overall no. Streatham would be the nearest South London equivalent to H & WG The new Hornsey & Friern Barnet seat is going to be even more cartoonishingly guardianista. Wimbledon Town Centre has a rather woke feel to it and the Conservative vote has fallen off a cliff with it very unlikely to ever recover. The seat of Wimbledon is quite mixed though mostly affluent to very affluent there are grotty patches around South Wimbledon though the area is gentrifying and most of Morden Town Centre is in the seat which is more like Croydon North but with a tube station. |
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Apr 13, 2023 19:14:30 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Apr 13, 2023 19:14:30 GMT
I think the Tories will hold Orpington, Hornchurch, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Ruislip-Northwood but marginal majorites in the latter two perhaps similar sort of majorities to likes of Epsom and Hertsmere will get too (around 3-4k). Wimbledon is a dead cert loss to the LDs will be probably end with the Conservatives in a distant third and become the new Hornsey and Wood Green. Both Sutton seats will go Lib Dem too maybe with Carshalton being more marginal. While I don’t know the Wimbledon area very well (or anything south of the Thames), I am very familiar with most of the ‘Hornsey & Wood Green’ constituency, and I highly doubt any constituency in the UK has as many woke, middle class guardianistas as Hornsey & Wood Green. We shouldn't mix up angry remainer banker types with the sandal and müsli brigade. They are not the same. |
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Apr 13, 2023 19:39:26 GMT
Post by jakegb on Apr 13, 2023 19:39:26 GMT
The Tories won Orpington by 45.9% (23% swing required) and Hornchurch & Upminster by 43.2% (21.6% swing required), so while the government is unpopular, 23% seems high... I think the Tories will hold Orpington, Hornchurch, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Ruislip-Northwood but marginal majorites in the latter two perhaps similar sort of majorities to likes of Epsom and Hertsmere will get too (around 3-4k). Wimbledon is a dead cert loss to the LDs will be probably end with the Conservatives in a distant third and become the new Hornsey and Wood Green. Both Sutton seats will go Lib Dem too maybe with Carshalton being more marginal. Agree with all those holds - would add Romford too. The boundary changes may be a blessing in disguise for the Tories - as the electorate grapples with who is best placed to defeat the Tories. Wimbledon and Chelsea/Fulham being prime examples of such seats. |
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Post by batman on Apr 13, 2023 19:41:03 GMT
very sad not to belong to either of those categories. I feel well & truly left out
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 13, 2023 19:47:27 GMT
Yeah Wimbledon is not close - there are small areas of the seat that are a bit like that, but overall no. Streatham would be the nearest South London equivalent to H & WG The new Hornsey & Friern Barnet seat is going to be even more cartoonishingly guardianista. I will be in Southgate and Wood Green so i can start to live a normal life again.  |
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Apr 13, 2023 20:02:26 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Apr 13, 2023 20:02:26 GMT
I think the Tories will hold Orpington, Hornchurch, Old Bexley and Sidcup and Ruislip-Northwood but marginal majorites in the latter two perhaps similar sort of majorities to likes of Epsom and Hertsmere will get too (around 3-4k). Wimbledon is a dead cert loss to the LDs will be probably end with the Conservatives in a distant third and become the new Hornsey and Wood Green. Both Sutton seats will go Lib Dem too maybe with Carshalton being more marginal. Agree with all those holds - would add Romford too. The boundary changes may be a blessing in disguise for the Tories - as the electorate grapples with who is best placed to defeat the Tories. Wimbledon and Chelsea/Fulham being prime examples of such seats. Fair point but didnt help in Feb 74 and 1997 |
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Apr 13, 2023 20:44:34 GMT
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Post by aargauer on Apr 13, 2023 20:44:34 GMT
The new Hornsey & Friern Barnet seat is going to be even more cartoonishingly guardianista. I will be in Southgate and Wood Green so i can start to live a normal life again. Where are you going to get your granola from now? |
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