YouGov

[andrewp]

Mar 24, 2023 13:17:58 GMT batman said:

Quite a lot of polls out today & yesterday. Do we know which was sampled the most recently? The narrative in the last couple of days has been poorer for the Tories than it has for roughly the fortnight before.

I think the most recents from Techne, yougov and people polling were all done on Tuesday/ Weds.

[andrewp]

[andrewp]

[batman]

so what swing is that since the 2019 general election?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Labour had a 16% lead in London at the 2019 general election so that's a 12% swing.

[bigfatron]

Apr 6, 2023 9:06:29 GMT batman said:

so what swing is that since the 2019 general election?

Swing since their last poll in January 2022  Ignore me, I misread your question!

[cogload]

Red wall seats! Or something.

If repeated at a GE this may see (h/t to Rob Ford) Orpington retained as a marginal by the Tories.

[andrewp]

Apr 6, 2023 9:06:29 GMT batman said:

so what swing is that since the 2019 general election?

On current boundaries on a uniform swing, that would lead to

Lab 60 (+11)
Con 9 (-12)
LD 4 (+1)

[robert1]

Apr 6, 2023 9:09:55 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Labour had a 16% lead in London at the 2019 general election so that's a 12% swing.

Since the Conservatives led Labour by 12% at the GE, a 12% swing from Dec 2019 would imply a national Lab lead of 12% 

[The Bishop]

Think there is a London polls thread somewhere.

[carlton43]

Apr 6, 2023 8:44:30 GMT andrewp said:

London is increasingly a foreign country as anyone visiting it realizes.  The English speaking English will soon be an oppressed minority in their own capital.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Apr 6, 2023 10:19:58 GMT robert1 said:

Apr 6, 2023 9:09:55 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Labour had a 16% lead in London at the 2019 general election so that's a 12% swing.

Since the Conservatives led Labour by 12% at the GE, a 12% swing from Dec 2019 would imply a national Lab lead of 12% 

Well no it wouldn't because (a) this is a specific regional poll; (b) Labour was doing proportionately a lot better in London in 2019 so has much less ability to produce a large swing there.

That being said, if I was a London Conservative I would be seriously worried for the long term future because it appears the party was not at its base in 2017 and 2019, but instead has possibly much further to fall.

[robert1]

David-you took about 10 minutes longer to reply than I had predicted 

[batman]

Apr 6, 2023 11:38:55 GMT carlton43 said:

Apr 6, 2023 8:44:30 GMT andrewp said:

London is increasingly a foreign country as anyone visiting it realizes.  The English speaking English will soon be an oppressed minority in their own capital.

I don't feel particularly oppressed and don't expect to feel so (at least not for that reason) in the future either. I will feel more oppressed if I become part of a minority of males which refuses to wear shorts.

[carlton43]

Apr 6, 2023 12:18:56 GMT batman said:

Apr 6, 2023 11:38:55 GMT carlton43 said:

London is increasingly a foreign country as anyone visiting it realizes.  The English speaking English will soon be an oppressed minority in their own capital.

I don't feel particularly oppressed and don't expect to feel so (at least not for that reason) in the future either. I will feel more oppressed if I become part of a minority of males which refuses to wear shorts.

A nice light touch retort.  I am unaware of the press towards shorts coming from London but I do empathize with your concerns.

My remarks contain hyperbole but there are incipient concerns in the older generation in London about the massive transformation of their cultural environment and physical environment, as brought home to them daily by often being speakers of a minority language in the street and on their bus.  I use Ubers and taxis for every movement greater than a quarter of a mile so it affects me less.

[John Chanin]

Apr 6, 2023 12:18:56 GMT batman said:

Apr 6, 2023 11:38:55 GMT carlton43 said:

London is increasingly a foreign country as anyone visiting it realizes.  The English speaking English will soon be an oppressed minority in their own capital.

I don't feel particularly oppressed and don't expect to feel so (at least not for that reason) in the future either. I will feel more oppressed if I become part of a minority of males which refuses to wear shorts.

London is grimy and polluted, but it is a fantastic place, with its fine public transport system, cultural establishments, restaurants and bars, and yes its great multicultural atmosphere, where people get on fine.  Not to speak of the job opportunities, and the best education system in the country, which sends working class kids like Sharon White into the elite.  Pity about the housing costs though, which despite contrary propaganda, means that some of the poorest people in the country scrape a living there.

London and the Conservative Party are quite out of communication now, which is inconvenient for a government that perforce has to live there. Perhaps it would suit everyone if the political capital were to be moved.

[aargauer]

One of the main reasons I think Davıd Boothroyd is correct and the conservatives have significantly further to fall (although inner London labour is getting towards its ceiling imo) is that it makes absolutely no sense to live in London if you are young and have a broadly conservative life plan (including family) and priorities/mindset (and I speak from experience!)

Property is too expensive, salaries are too low, and the schools aren't good enough (private schools given the expensive property and low salaries are not easily affordable).

Why would you live there? For a whole slew of reasons conservatives broadly don't value.

I don't think the above was true a generation ago. To be honest you can say the same about most of the Home Counties when you factor in absurdly expensive rail tickets in the uk. If I was forced to stay there I would have bought in Tonbridge but it just was a lot of money to sit on a train all day.

It's a decent place to spend a few years when you are young. But I've never regretted leaving for a second.

Long term i suspect the conservatives will be left with Orpington. Even Romford and Upminister I can imagine turning quickly in the next generation.

[aargauer]

Apr 6, 2023 11:38:55 GMT carlton43 said:

Apr 6, 2023 8:44:30 GMT andrewp said:

London is increasingly a foreign country as anyone visiting it realizes.  The English speaking English will soon be an oppressed minority in their own capital.

If by "English" you mean of native English descent ethnically that happened a while ago.

I wonder how long ago it happened in Southall. That can't be much more than 2 or 3% white British.

[Sibboleth]

I think the main issue is that the Conservative Party brand is in the toilet everywhere and London is no exception.

[johnloony]

Apr 6, 2023 11:38:55 GMT carlton43 said:

Apr 6, 2023 8:44:30 GMT andrewp said:

London is increasingly a foreign country as anyone visiting it realizes.  The English speaking English will soon be an oppressed minority in their own capital.

Minority, yes
Oppressed, no

I have never felt oppressed or uncomfortable as an ethnic minority, whether it’s in London (c.45% white British) generally, or Croydon (c.40% white British) or in my neighbourhood (50% white, 40% Asian) or when i was campaigning in Southall (population less than 10%, candidates 17%) during the by-election in 2007.