|
|
YouGov
Apr 13, 2023 20:45:09 GMT
via mobile
Post by aargauer on Apr 13, 2023 20:45:09 GMT
I think the main issue is that the Conservative Party brand is in the toilet everywhere and London is no exception. Apart from Lincolnshire! |
|
|
|
YouGov
Apr 13, 2023 20:47:40 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Apr 13, 2023 20:47:40 GMT
I will be in Southgate and Wood Green so i can start to live a normal life again.  Where are you going to get your granola from now? granola is so yesterday man! they sell it like everywhere.  |
|
|
|
YouGov
Apr 13, 2023 20:53:21 GMT
via mobile
Post by aargauer on Apr 13, 2023 20:53:21 GMT
Where are you going to get your granola from now? granola is so yesterday man! they sell it like everywhere. Yeah I feel like the old mueslis in Muswell Hill are a bit like the socialist equivalent of the kings road Sloanes. All the cool kids are out in Walthamstow these days. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Apr 13, 2023 20:55:23 GMT
granola is so yesterday man! they sell it like everywhere. Yeah I feel like the old mueslis in Muswell Hill are a bit like the socialist equivalent of the kings road Sloanes. All the cool kids are out in Walthamstow these days.Walthamstow Village , I think you mean.  |
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Apr 13, 2023 21:41:51 GMT
The new Hornsey & Friern Barnet seat is going to be even more cartoonishingly guardianista. Wimbledon Town Centre has a rather woke feel to it and the Conservative vote has fallen off a cliff with it very unlikely to ever recover. The seat of Wimbledon is quite mixed though mostly affluent to very affluent there are grotty patches around South Wimbledon though the area is gentrifying and most of Morden Town Centre is in the seat which is more like Croydon North but with a tube station. The new seat is Wimbledon and Coombe which includes the most Tory parts of Kingston borough. With Labour polling 40 and 50 points in front of the Tories and Lib Dems respectively in London in the latest polls the result is surely in doubt. It's possible to see almost any combination of the order of the top three parties next time. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 15, 2023 10:52:18 GMT
Not sure where to put it but worth noting that More in Common has a poll mentioned on Politico Playbook this morning as Con 30, Lab 44, LD 10, Grn 6, Ref 5. Says the narrowest lead the think tank has recorded since July last year Though their previous VI surveys seem a bit elusive, as with who exactly is doing their polling. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Apr 15, 2023 10:57:30 GMT
that particular poll is strikingly similar to another poll published at a similar time.
|
|
|
|
Post by aidypiez on Apr 18, 2023 13:29:06 GMT
|
|
|
|
YouGov
Apr 21, 2023 8:11:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 21, 2023 8:11:03 GMT
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Apr 21, 2023 11:00:59 GMT
LAB: 43% (-2)
CON: 28% (+1)
LDM: 10% (=)
REF: 7% (+1)
GRN: 6% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @yougov,
Changes w/ 12-13 April.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Apr 21, 2023 11:48:42 GMT
There's no question that the Labour lead has narrowed a bit in recent days. The question is whether the trajectory continues unchecked - could this morning's events have an impact for example? And whether the Tories can realistically expect to prevent a Labour majority? Events in Scotland may yet have an impact on that as, until a couple of months ago, the expectation was of very limited numbers of Labour seats in Scotland, which now looks a lot less certain. Most of the factors which have propelled Labour into a strong lead (which it still is) remain very much in place, and are likely to for quite a bit longer. Is this just chipping away at the fringes of an artificially high lead or is the Labour edifice in a more parlous state? Time alone will tell.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 21, 2023 12:40:55 GMT
There's no question that the Labour lead has narrowed a bit in recent days. The question is whether the trajectory continues unchecked - could this morning's events have an impact for example? And whether the Tories can realistically expect to prevent a Labour majority? Events in Scotland may yet have an impact on that as, until a couple of months ago, the expectation was of very limited numbers of Labour seats in Scotland, which now looks a lot less certain. Most of the factors which have propelled Labour into a strong lead (which it still is) remain very much in place, and are likely to for quite a bit longer. Is this just chipping away at the fringes of an artificially high lead or is the Labour edifice in a more parlous state? Time alone will tell. Yes, I said a few days ago that the average Labour lead in March was 19% and that in April so far it had been 16%. I guess now it would have reduced a touch further. Labour were routinely getting 45-48 in March, now the routine is more 42-45. I think there’s a suggestion that that is at least partly because more 2019 Conservatives have moved from don’t know back to the Conservatives, which was always a fairly possible event. The average lead would be lower now as I don’t think Labour have got over 45% in a poll for a while, I would suggest that the number of local by election results that supported their being a lead of 20%+ were never that great in number. I think 10-15% lead feels about right from those. I think the Labour lead is softish but I still find it unlkely that it will close completely. I also still find it hard to believe that Labour wouldn’t get a majority with a 10% lead. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
|
Post by Sibboleth on Apr 21, 2023 12:49:13 GMT
One issue is that once polling leads are large they also become a lot more volatile, which means it's harder to explain (most) movement.
|
|
|
|
Post by bigfatron on Apr 21, 2023 12:52:05 GMT
There's no question that the Labour lead has narrowed a bit in recent days. The question is whether the trajectory continues unchecked - could this morning's events have an impact for example? And whether the Tories can realistically expect to prevent a Labour majority? Events in Scotland may yet have an impact on that as, until a couple of months ago, the expectation was of very limited numbers of Labour seats in Scotland, which now looks a lot less certain. Most of the factors which have propelled Labour into a strong lead (which it still is) remain very much in place, and are likely to for quite a bit longer. Is this just chipping away at the fringes of an artificially high lead or is the Labour edifice in a more parlous state? Time alone will tell. Yes, I said a few days ago that the average Labour lead in March was 19% and that in April so far it had been 16%. I guess now it would have reduced a touch further. Labour were routinely getting 45-48 in March, now the routine is more 42-45. I think there’s a suggestion that that is at least partly because more 2019 Conservatives have moved from don’t know back to the Conservatives, which was always a fairly possible event. The average lead would be lower now as I don’t think Labour have got over 45% in a poll for a while, I would suggest that the number of local by election results that supported their being a lead of 20%+ were never that great in number. I think 10-15% lead feels about right from those. I think the Labour lead is softish but I still find it unlkely that it will close completely. I also still find it hard to believe that Labour wouldn’t get a majority with a 10% lead. Average of the last thirteen polls (all those fully sampled in April) is: Labour - 44.2% Tory - 28.9% Lib Dem - 9.9% Reform - 5.9% Green - 5.0% SNP - 3.3% Labour average lead 15.3% I'd expect some Reform voters will revert to the Tories in any campaign, and likely some churn between Greens, Labour and Lib Dems as targeting and tactical voting kicks in in specific constituencies. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Apr 21, 2023 13:24:03 GMT
although such churn would be damaging to the Tories in terms of seats, not Labour.
|
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Apr 21, 2023 13:40:01 GMT
I think Labour is going to win by 7.5-11.5% (probably closer to the 9-11% rage), but I could be wrong.
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
|
Post by cogload on Apr 26, 2023 15:51:16 GMT
2nd sub with the SNP on 2%.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 28, 2023 9:57:47 GMT
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (-2)
CON: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
REF: 7% (-)
via @yougov, 26 - 27 Apr
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on May 15, 2023 11:49:33 GMT
In the Times today there’s a Yougov poll of 3672 adults who voted LD in the local elections, asking how they would vote in a General Election ( 10-11 May)
Lib Dem 44%
Lab 23%
Don’t Know 17%
Con 9%
Green 3%
RefUK 3%
Other 1%
|
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on May 15, 2023 12:15:09 GMT
In the Times today there’s a Yougov poll of 3672 adults who voted LD in the local elections, asking how they would vote in a General Election ( 10-11 May) Lib Dem 44% Lab 23% Don’t Know 17% Con 9% Green 3% RefUK 3% Other 1% The LDs got 20% national equivalent vote share in the locals. Apply the above to that 20% figure (excluding Don't Knows) and you get 10.6% - very much in line with current polls. |
|
