jamie
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YouGov
Oct 25, 2022 14:34:51 GMT
Post by jamie on Oct 25, 2022 14:34:51 GMT
Sunak starts with good numbers on the economy, but they are built in large part on 2019 Labour/Lib Dem voters trusting him. When he starts announcing spending cuts and being seen as a normal Tory, will these numbers hold up? Probably not, and it’s not like he was very popular in the period before he resigned as chancellor when the perceived lack of help with the cost of living was biting (perhaps indicated by the decent difference between ‘managing the economy ie. not causing market chaos like Truss, and ‘cost of living’ i.e. improving peoples personal financial situations).
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 27, 2022 10:25:14 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 27, 2022 10:35:22 GMT
So, unless I've missed anything, this is the first poll conducted entirely after Sunak was confirmed as Prime Minister. It's very much inline with the hypothetical polling from Electoral Calculus: the Conservatives have made an increase by changing the leader, but a still in serious trouble. It's possible the general public's view of the Conservative party has been damaged beyond repair for this parliamentary term and the past couple of months has been this government's Black Wednesday moment.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Oct 27, 2022 10:41:04 GMT
For all the talk of 'grown-ups' being back in-charge and Rishi being a winner, I am (Edit: not!) sure this poll will bring much comfort to Tories. Especially with the likely upcoming cuts.
Whether the Tory brand is damaged 'beyond repair' is up for debate. It took 13 years, but they came back from the 90s. No doubt they will again too.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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YouGov
Oct 27, 2022 10:53:38 GMT
Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 27, 2022 10:53:38 GMT
For all the talk of 'grown-ups' being back in-charge and Rishi being a winner, I am sure this poll will bring much comfort to Tories. Especially with the likely upcoming cuts.
Whether the Tory brand is damaged 'beyond repair' is up for debate. It took 13 years, but they came back from the 90s. No doubt they will again too.
Indeed, they are the Charlie Haughey of UK political parties. I think Rishi Sunak's re-appointment of Suella Braverman to the Home Office after only 6 days, with the influential Jake Berry revealing she had made multiple security breaches, when, as the FDA points out, any of their members would have been sacked for a similar infringement, could turn into an Owen Patterson moment for him. I think the story will have legs and tarnish him.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 27, 2022 10:59:07 GMT
For all the talk of 'grown-ups' being back in-charge and Rishi being a winner, I am sure this poll will bring much comfort to Tories. Especially with the likely upcoming cuts.
Whether the Tory brand is damaged 'beyond repair' is up for debate. It took 13 years, but they came back from the 90s. No doubt they will again too.
What I mean by "damaged beyond repair for this parliamentary term" is their reputation is likely irrecoverable within this parliamentary term, as opposed to a complete death knell for the party, and they won't recover to a level where they'll seriously have a chance of being in government after the next election.
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YouGov
Oct 27, 2022 11:07:50 GMT
Post by matureleft on Oct 27, 2022 11:07:50 GMT
For all the talk of 'grown-ups' being back in-charge and Rishi being a winner, I am sure this poll will bring much comfort to Tories. Especially with the likely upcoming cuts.
Whether the Tory brand is damaged 'beyond repair' is up for debate. It took 13 years, but they came back from the 90s. No doubt they will again too.
Indeed, they are the Charlie Haughey of UK political parties. I think Rishi Sunak's re-appointment of Suella Braverman to the Home Office after only 6 days, with the influential Jake Berry revealing she had made multiple security breaches, when, as the FDA points out, any of their members would have been sacked for a similar infringement, could turn into an Owen Patterson moment for him. I think the story will have legs and tarnish him. It's one of these "process" things that, while actually quite important and indicative of casual disregard of perfectly reasonable rules, seldom cuts through. It would help if exactly what she'd done was revealed. Of course it's possible, even likely, that she'll make further similar mistakes - she was presumably leaking information for some intra-party purpose. She seems to play those games perhaps explaining the rapid emergence of public criticism from party colleagues.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 27, 2022 11:14:46 GMT
Indeed, they are the Charlie Haughey of UK political parties. I think Rishi Sunak's re-appointment of Suella Braverman to the Home Office after only 6 days, with the influential Jake Berry revealing she had made multiple security breaches, when, as the FDA points out, any of their members would have been sacked for a similar infringement, could turn into an Owen Patterson moment for him. I think the story will have legs and tarnish him. It's one of these "process" things that, while actually quite important and indicative of casual disregard of perfectly reasonable rules, seldom cuts through. It would help if exactly what she'd done was revealed. Of course it's possible, even likely, that she'll make further similar mistakes - she was presumably leaking information for some intra-party purpose. She seems to play those games perhaps explaining the rapid emergence of public criticism from party colleagues. It will feed into the unease of MPs as a self-inflicted wound. Suella Braverman is not popular across the Tory Party and I could see her being shuffled out in the not-too-distant future.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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YouGov
Oct 27, 2022 11:19:06 GMT
Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 27, 2022 11:19:06 GMT
It's one of these "process" things that, while actually quite important and indicative of casual disregard of perfectly reasonable rules, seldom cuts through. It would help if exactly what she'd done was revealed. Of course it's possible, even likely, that she'll make further similar mistakes - she was presumably leaking information for some intra-party purpose. She seems to play those games perhaps explaining the rapid emergence of public criticism from party colleagues. It will feed into the unease of MPs as a self-inflicted wound. Suella Braverman is not popular across the Tory Party and I could see her being shuffled out in the not-too-distant future. Caroline Nokes and Mark Pritchard have also weighed in on the Braverman issue. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63410737
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 27, 2022 11:40:23 GMT
It's one of these "process" things that, while actually quite important and indicative of casual disregard of perfectly reasonable rules, seldom cuts through. It would help if exactly what she'd done was revealed. I thought we knew largely what she had done: tried to send confidential, market sensitive documents on immigration policy to Sir John Hayes and his wife on her private phone prior to the removal of embargo, and ended up texting a junior civil servant at the HO who reported her to the Permanent Secretary.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 27, 2022 11:55:28 GMT
For all the talk of 'grown-ups' being back in-charge and Rishi being a winner, I am sure this poll will bring much comfort to Tories. Especially with the likely upcoming cuts.
Whether the Tory brand is damaged 'beyond repair' is up for debate. It took 13 years, but they came back from the 90s. No doubt they will again too.
After the last couple of Government defeats after a long term in office, I would say it’s taken about 4-6 years for the public to get interested in that party again. If a Labour government gets elected and then re elected, it’s very likely ( but not certain) that the Conservative party will then be a buyable brand again.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 27, 2022 11:57:25 GMT
My word, this is an awful lot of extrapolation based on one, one!, poll. Wait a few weeks then you have data.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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YouGov
Oct 27, 2022 12:02:17 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 27, 2022 12:02:17 GMT
The past can't necessarily guide the future so I would agree let's wait and see what happens. It is interesting that post 1979 governemnts ahve been in longer unlike the short lived 1970-1974 tory and 1974-1979 Lab govts
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 27, 2022 12:24:16 GMT
And if you go back, Tories were in power for 13 years (1951-1964) and its often forgotten Labour were *in government* for over a decade before then.
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Post by matureleft on Oct 27, 2022 12:36:18 GMT
Our difficulties in knowing exactly what Braverman did are twofold: 1. Lack of clarity on what she sent and its sensitivity - she claimed that it was something about to be released, others appeared to disagree. 2. Berry's suggestion that she was a repeat offender - this wasn't the only incident. Perhaps he's mistaken but it seems odd to make it up and I note that she's kept quiet leaving her defence to other ministers.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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YouGov
Oct 27, 2022 13:32:54 GMT
Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 27, 2022 13:32:54 GMT
And if you go back, Tories were in power for 13 years (1951-1964) and its often forgotten Labour were *in government* for over a decade before then.Might be stretching the point
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YouGov
Oct 27, 2022 13:57:14 GMT
Post by gibbon on Oct 27, 2022 13:57:14 GMT
I suspect that Berry will reveal more in the next few weeks. If not will Braverrman sue for defamation? If not, why not?
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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YouGov
Oct 28, 2022 7:11:48 GMT
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Post by cogload on Oct 28, 2022 7:11:48 GMT
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 28, 2022 7:35:44 GMT
Honestly, it's at bad question, as it's too simple.
Leaving wasn't wrong per se, so I guess I'd have to answer no, though my answer is more nuanced than that.
The problem has been the fucked up way our government, primarily, but with some EU help has done it. I personally expected a much smoother transition, naively maybe.
I still believe we were right to leave the EU and its political project, so from that point of view we were right.
Economically it seems maybe not, though Covid decisions and Russia have added to problems so not all that is happening economically at the moment can be blamed on Brexit.
This doesn't mean we were wrong to choose to leave, the implementation of leaving has been the problem not the act itself.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
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Post by polupolu on Oct 28, 2022 8:22:14 GMT
Honestly, it's at bad question, as it's too simple. Leaving wasn't wrong per se, so I guess I'd have to answer no, though my answer is more nuanced than that. The problem has been the fucked up way our government, primarily, but with some EU help has done it. I personally expected a much smoother transition, naively maybe. I still believe we were right to leave the EU and its political project, so from that point of view we were right. Economically it seems maybe not, though Covid decisions and Russia have added to problems so not all that is happening economically at the moment can be blamed on Brexit. This doesn't mean we were wrong to choose to leave, the implementation of leaving has been the problem not the act itself. Agreed:Yes/No questions tend to be bad (see my general critique of referendums elsewhere).
It is also clear that leaving the EU will be tarred by the brush of other events since. But "thems the breaks" I guess.
I suppose one aspect is that the key (and largely flagged) problem with leaving the EU was going to be the immediate economic hit. Under the present circumstances, economics probably looms larger in people's minds - so that aspect weighs more heavily with the public's judgement, irrespective of any connection to the event.
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