r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,116
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Post by r34t on Oct 13, 2022 8:33:24 GMT
I remember a few years back (at the height of the UKIP boom) being told on here that there is a 'natural right wing majority' in the UK. Total left of centre vote per above: 73%... At the moment we have a very large 'anyone but these muppets' majority, so I don't read this as 73% left of centre. Sadly.
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Post by batman on Oct 13, 2022 8:39:27 GMT
That's partly true, but there's a fairly wide level of agreement with Labour's policies too
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,116
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YouGov
Oct 13, 2022 8:59:49 GMT
Post by r34t on Oct 13, 2022 8:59:49 GMT
That's partly true, but there's a fairly wide level of agreement with Labour's policies too True
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Post by andrewp on Oct 13, 2022 9:11:13 GMT
I remember a few years back (at the height of the UKIP boom) being told on here that there is a 'natural right wing majority' in the UK. Total left of centre vote per above: 73%... And of course, not all Lib Dem voters are left of centre.
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Post by grahammurray on Oct 13, 2022 9:17:34 GMT
I remember a few years back (at the height of the UKIP boom) being told on here that there is a 'natural right wing majority' in the UK. Total left of centre vote per above: 73%... And of course, not all Lib Dem voters are left of centre. Fair point. Delete "left of centre" insert "anti growth alliance" of 73%
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YouGov
Oct 13, 2022 9:35:52 GMT
Post by bigfatron on Oct 13, 2022 9:35:52 GMT
I remember a few years back (at the height of the UKIP boom) being told on here that there is a 'natural right wing majority' in the UK. Total left of centre vote per above: 73%... And of course, not all Lib Dem voters are left of centre. My point exactly - many (most?) UKIP voters were not right of centre either...
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YouGov
Oct 13, 2022 11:21:55 GMT
Post by michaelarden on Oct 13, 2022 11:21:55 GMT
I remember a few years back (at the height of the UKIP boom) being told on here that there is a 'natural right wing majority' in the UK. Total left of centre vote per above: 73%... And of course, not all Lib Dem voters are left of centre. Under Davey there's a clear right of centre pitch to pro-remain Tories in the Home Counties.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 21, 2022 15:23:24 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Oct 21, 2022 15:25:01 GMT
Squeaky bum time.
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Post by woollyliberal on Oct 21, 2022 15:50:32 GMT
Indeed. 3 polls since Truss' resignation Con -4, -5, -6. Overnight. On top of the previous drops.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Oct 21, 2022 15:57:10 GMT
That same poll has Labour vs con under different leaders
For Sunak it's Labour 43 vs Blue 34% Johnson 48%vs35% Penny 43% vs 28%
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 21, 2022 16:40:02 GMT
That same poll has Labour vs con under different leaders For Sunak it's Labour 43 vs Blue 34% Johnson 48%vs35% Penny 43% vs 28% The question was "If you had to choose, who would you prefer as Prime Minister if you had to choose between the following and Keir Starmer?" - so isn't reflective on a VI poll. That said, the Johnson-Starmer contest has moved towards Starmer since Johnson resigned as PM; the last YouGov poll on 5-6 May was Johnson 27%; Starmer 33% for preferred PM.
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YouGov
Oct 21, 2022 16:45:02 GMT
via mobile
Post by aargauer on Oct 21, 2022 16:45:02 GMT
Indeed. 3 polls since Truss' resignation Con -4, -5, -6. Overnight. On top of the previous drops. The only surprising bit is the retention of 20% of the electorate. If we had a proportionate system with a real choice we'd be losing a lot more than c. 50-60% of our voters.
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Post by greenhert on Oct 21, 2022 18:11:41 GMT
Indeed. 3 polls since Truss' resignation Con -4, -5, -6. Overnight. On top of the previous drops. The only surprising bit is the retention of 20% of the electorate. If we had a proportionate system with a real choice we'd be losing a lot more than c. 50-60% of our voters. Not necessarily, except in Ireland. The 2011 Irish general election permanently hobbled Fianna Fail; they will never be as dominant in Irish politics as they used to be.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,026
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Post by jamie on Oct 24, 2022 17:03:38 GMT
Random observation: Starmer is ahead in 2019 Conservative voting Morley + Outwood and Wakefield, but Not Sure is ahead in 2019 Labour voting Hemsworth and Normanton, Pontefract + Castleford. Eyeballing it, there does seem to be a decent correlation between Not Sure and Brexity 2015 Labour seats that have zoomed right since.
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YouGov
Oct 24, 2022 17:06:35 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 24, 2022 17:06:35 GMT
Random observation: Starmer is ahead in 2019 Conservative voting Morley + Outwood and Wakefield, but Not Sure is ahead in 2019 Labour voting Hemsworth and Normanton, Pontefract + Castleford. Eyeballing it, there does seem to be a decent correlation between Not Sure and Brexity 2015 Labour seats that have zoomed right since. That large swathe of "not sure" surrounding The Wash is quite noticeable, given that some of those seats have humungous Tory majorities.
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YouGov
Oct 24, 2022 17:30:46 GMT
via mobile
jamie likes this
Post by bjornhattan on Oct 24, 2022 17:30:46 GMT
Random observation: Starmer is ahead in 2019 Conservative voting Morley + Outwood and Wakefield, but Not Sure is ahead in 2019 Labour voting Hemsworth and Normanton, Pontefract + Castleford. Eyeballing it, there does seem to be a decent correlation between Not Sure and Brexity 2015 Labour seats that have zoomed right since. Another set of seats which appear to be disproportionately unsure are seats where Labour are well ahead now (though not necessarily historically) which are relatively ethnically diverse. Some that I've spotted include Huddersfield, Slough, Ilford North, Barking, Luton North, Hayes and Harlington, Warley, Brent North, and Leicester East.
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YouGov
Oct 24, 2022 17:44:43 GMT
via mobile
Post by aargauer on Oct 24, 2022 17:44:43 GMT
Random observation: Starmer is ahead in 2019 Conservative voting Morley + Outwood and Wakefield, but Not Sure is ahead in 2019 Labour voting Hemsworth and Normanton, Pontefract + Castleford. Eyeballing it, there does seem to be a decent correlation between Not Sure and Brexity 2015 Labour seats that have zoomed right since. Another set of seats which appear to be disproportionately unsure are seats where Labour are well ahead now (though not necessarily historically) which are relatively ethnically diverse. Some that I've spotted include Huddersfield, Slough, Ilford North, Barking, Luton North, Hayes and Harlington, Warley, Brent North, and Leicester East. Ready for putting a punt on the tories winning the last 2.
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YouGov
Oct 24, 2022 19:28:13 GMT
Post by batman on Oct 24, 2022 19:28:13 GMT
I suspect Barry Gardiner will be OK but Leicester East is certainly dangerous for Labour even in the event of a large national victory. But Brent North is a better bet for the Tories than it was a week ago yes.
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YouGov
Oct 24, 2022 19:47:09 GMT
via mobile
Post by aargauer on Oct 24, 2022 19:47:09 GMT
I suspect Barry Gardiner will be OK but Leicester East is certainly dangerous for Labour even in the event of a large national victory. But Brent North is a better bet for the Tories than it was a week ago yes. Only if I get good odds on the former. Over 10/1
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