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YouGov
Oct 7, 2022 9:35:51 GMT
via mobile
Post by afleitch on Oct 7, 2022 9:35:51 GMT
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YouGov
Oct 7, 2022 9:44:58 GMT
Post by John Chanin on Oct 7, 2022 9:44:58 GMT
116 constituencies. The country is of course mainly urban, so most of these have medium sized towns in them.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 8, 2022 9:40:10 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,391
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2022 10:34:42 GMT
First indications in the polling that the Tories may have bottomed out.....for now anyway.
(however the other indicators in the latest surveys including this one remain utterly dire for them, with almost literally no exceptions)
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Post by woollyliberal on Oct 8, 2022 11:50:30 GMT
First indications in the polling that the Tories may have bottomed out.....for now anyway. (however the other indicators in the latest surveys including this one remain utterly dire for them, with almost literally no exceptions) Some of this weekend's polls are up by a couple of points, some down by a couple of points. Polling is holding steady. It looks like the Tory conference did no further damage. Over time I'd expect the big recent change to ebb away. Until the next Fiscal Event.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,116
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Post by r34t on Oct 8, 2022 13:22:30 GMT
Dead cat bounce
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YouGov
Oct 8, 2022 13:39:33 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Oct 8, 2022 13:39:33 GMT
Reform UK on 5% is interesting given they've been invisible in the media since Farage was succeeded as leader by the new one. Can't even remember his name. Do they offer it as an option? Of course YG is a panel sample so may favour organised recruitment
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,475
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YouGov
Oct 8, 2022 15:32:33 GMT
Post by Jack on Oct 8, 2022 15:32:33 GMT
Reform UK on 5% is interesting given they've been invisible in the media since Farage was succeeded as leader by the new one. Can't even remember his name. Do they offer it as an option? Of course YG is a panel sample so may favour organised recruitment I'm on the YouGov panel, and they do prompt for Reform.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 8, 2022 16:27:58 GMT
Do they offer it as an option? Of course YG is a panel sample so may favour organised recruitment I'm on the YouGov panel, and they do prompt for Reform. They'll also prompt for Reform across the whole of GB, which will gain them a couple of points compared to 2019. The Brexit Party stood in less than half of constituencies; I imagine the Brexit Party could've got 5% in GB had they stood in every GB seat.
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YouGov
Oct 8, 2022 16:45:14 GMT
Post by yellowperil on Oct 8, 2022 16:45:14 GMT
I'm on the YouGov panel, and they do prompt for Reform. They'll also prompt for Reform across the whole of GB, which will gain them a couple of points compared to 2019. The Brexit Party stood in less than half of constituencies; I imagine the Brexit Party could've got 5% in GB had they stood in every GB seat. and what would have been the result of that, apart from a mountain of lost deposits?
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 8, 2022 16:55:49 GMT
They'll also prompt for Reform across the whole of GB, which will gain them a couple of points compared to 2019. The Brexit Party stood in less than half of constituencies; I imagine the Brexit Party could've got 5% in GB had they stood in every GB seat. and what would have been the result of that, apart from a mountain of lost deposits? Not necessarily, they probably would've done rather well in places like Thurrock; Clacton; Boston and Skegness; South Holland and the Deepings; Castle Point. My point was more they were probably not far from 5% in GB at the time of the last election, once adjusting for the seats they didn't contest.
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aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,363
Member is Online
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YouGov
Oct 8, 2022 17:56:57 GMT
via mobile
Post by aargauer on Oct 8, 2022 17:56:57 GMT
They'll also prompt for Reform across the whole of GB, which will gain them a couple of points compared to 2019. The Brexit Party stood in less than half of constituencies; I imagine the Brexit Party could've got 5% in GB had they stood in every GB seat. and what would have been the result of that, apart from a mountain of lost deposits? You could say the same about lots of other parties. Greens, Lib Dems for a start.
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YouGov
Oct 8, 2022 18:14:11 GMT
Post by yellowperil on Oct 8, 2022 18:14:11 GMT
and what would have been the result of that, apart from a mountain of lost deposits? Not necessarily, they probably would've done rather well in places like Thurrock; Clacton; Boston and Skegness; South Holland and the Deepings; Castle Point. My point was more they were probably not far from 5% in GB at the time of the last election, once adjusting for the seats they didn't contest. Generally, I think that makes my point. If they had fought a nationwide campaign including the Tory seats where they decided not to compete, they might have done well in the sort of seats you mention but the Tories there would probably still have won. Had they actually won any of those it wouldn't have made much difference as the Reform candidate would not have been massively different from the Tory candidates in those particular seats. If they had fought everywhere and indeed averaged 5%, including those handful of seats they might have been competitive, they would have lost massively more deposits because in most seats they would have been on 2- 3 % at best. Nationwide campaigns from minor parties will have no chance without electoral reform. Or just possibly the total disintegration of one of the big two.
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YouGov
Oct 8, 2022 18:38:22 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 8, 2022 18:38:22 GMT
Not necessarily, they probably would've done rather well in places like Thurrock; Clacton; Boston and Skegness; South Holland and the Deepings; Castle Point. My point was more they were probably not far from 5% in GB at the time of the last election, once adjusting for the seats they didn't contest. Generally, I think that makes my point. If they had fought a nationwide campaign including the Tory seats where they decided not to compete, they might have done well in the sort of seats you mention but the Tories there would probably still have won. Had they actually won any of those it wouldn't have made much difference as the Reform candidate would not have been massively different from the Tory candidates in those particular seats. If they had fought everywhere and indeed averaged 5%, including those handful of seats they might have been competitive, they would have lost massively more deposits because in most seats they would have been on 2- 3 % at best. Nationwide campaigns from minor parties will have no chance without electoral reform. Or just possibly the total disintegration of one of the big two. But your point it irrelevant to the point that clyde1998 was making
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batman
Labour
Posts: 11,766
Member is Online
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YouGov
Oct 9, 2022 12:21:29 GMT
Post by batman on Oct 9, 2022 12:21:29 GMT
First indications in the polling that the Tories may have bottomed out.....for now anyway. (however the other indicators in the latest surveys including this one remain utterly dire for them, with almost literally no exceptions) It is actually very unusual for the Tories to derive literally no advantage from their conference, for a number of reasons, and I don't think the Tories will be remotely comforted by the very slight uptick they have seen in some polls - as others have noted, others have not picked this up. The fact is, a poll (YouGov) which was generally stated to be an outlier has turned out to be so only to a very, very slight degree, as several other polls have shown the Labour lead at over 30% since and even Opinium, which is more of an attempted election predictor than a snapshot poll nowadays, thinks it's over 20%. That last poll will possibly be even more worrying & panic-inducing for many Tories than those such as YouGov or People Polling. The other figures are incredibly dire for Truss & the Tories and although it's reasonable to expect at least some measure of recovery for them as the election nears it's notable that their core, absolute base vote now seems to be quite a lot lower than most of us thought it was. The Tory grassroots have put their MPs in a very difficult situation and what the best way out is will be a subject of heated debate within the party in the weeks & months to come. Nor can they take any comfort from possibly very slightly better local by-election results, where local factors are bound to create voting issues that do not exist very much in general elections. Even locally they are losing spectacularly in some very unlikely places indeed, just as opinion polls suggest they would in a general election. Some polls actually suggest Labour winning 5 of the 11 seats in Surrey - apart from Spelthorne in 1945, which in those days included all of heavily Labour Feltham, they have never won a parliamentary seat in the present-day Surrey County Council area. (Of course, that was in Middlesex in those days.)
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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YouGov
Oct 9, 2022 18:25:02 GMT
Post by clyde1998 on Oct 9, 2022 18:25:02 GMT
First indications in the polling that the Tories may have bottomed out.....for now anyway. (however the other indicators in the latest surveys including this one remain utterly dire for them, with almost literally no exceptions) It is actually very unusual for the Tories to derive literally no advantage from their conference, for a number of reasons, and I don't think the Tories will be remotely comforted by the very slight uptick they have seen in some polls - as others have noted, others have not picked this up. The fact is, a poll (YouGov) which was generally stated to be an outlier has turned out to be so only to a very, very slight degree, as several other polls have shown the Labour lead at over 30% since and even Opinium, which is more of an attempted election predictor than a snapshot poll nowadays, thinks it's over 20%. That last poll will possibly be even more worrying & panic-inducing for many Tories than those such as YouGov or People Polling. The other figures are incredibly dire for Truss & the Tories and although it's reasonable to expect at least some measure of recovery for them as the election nears it's notable that their core, absolute base vote now seems to be quite a lot lower than most of us thought it was. The Tory grassroots have put their MPs in a very difficult situation and what the best way out is will be a subject of heated debate within the party in the weeks & months to come. Nor can they take any comfort from possibly very slightly better local by-election results, where local factors are bound to create voting issues that do not exist very much in general elections. Even locally they are losing spectacularly in some very unlikely places indeed, just as opinion polls suggest they would in a general election. Some polls actually suggest Labour winning 5 of the 11 seats in Surrey - apart from Spelthorne in 1945, which in those days included all of heavily Labour Feltham, they have never won a parliamentary seat in the present-day Surrey County Council area. (Of course, that was in Middlesex in those days.) I wonder if May’s local elections will be when Truss gets ousted. Of course there’s a lot of time to go before then, but then seems to be the best time when considering the balance between damage and giving a reasonable amount of time for Truss to implement policies. I imagine the Conservatives will get pounded in the locals regardless of who’s leader under the current economic context unless something bizarre happens; the new leader would be able to distance themselves from the mistakes under Truss. It’s always the economy that kills governments, so it’s possible the Tories are doomed to lose the next election regardless now. Could MPs trust their members to elect a vaguely acceptable and competent leader (in the eyes of the general public) though? A parliamentary by-election pasting in one of their traditional strongholds could be another trigger, although there’s none scheduled and could probably be explained away.
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Post by islington on Oct 9, 2022 18:35:06 GMT
It is actually very unusual for the Tories to derive literally no advantage from their conference, for a number of reasons, and I don't think the Tories will be remotely comforted by the very slight uptick they have seen in some polls - as others have noted, others have not picked this up. The fact is, a poll (YouGov) which was generally stated to be an outlier has turned out to be so only to a very, very slight degree, as several other polls have shown the Labour lead at over 30% since and even Opinium, which is more of an attempted election predictor than a snapshot poll nowadays, thinks it's over 20%. That last poll will possibly be even more worrying & panic-inducing for many Tories than those such as YouGov or People Polling. The other figures are incredibly dire for Truss & the Tories and although it's reasonable to expect at least some measure of recovery for them as the election nears it's notable that their core, absolute base vote now seems to be quite a lot lower than most of us thought it was. The Tory grassroots have put their MPs in a very difficult situation and what the best way out is will be a subject of heated debate within the party in the weeks & months to come. Nor can they take any comfort from possibly very slightly better local by-election results, where local factors are bound to create voting issues that do not exist very much in general elections. Even locally they are losing spectacularly in some very unlikely places indeed, just as opinion polls suggest they would in a general election. Some polls actually suggest Labour winning 5 of the 11 seats in Surrey - apart from Spelthorne in 1945, which in those days included all of heavily Labour Feltham, they have never won a parliamentary seat in the present-day Surrey County Council area. (Of course, that was in Middlesex in those days.) I wonder if May’s local elections will be when Truss gets ousted. Of course there’s a lot of time to go before then, but then seems to be the best time when considering the balance between damage and giving a reasonable amount of time for Truss to implement policies. I imagine the Conservatives will get pounded in the locals regardless of who’s leader under the current economic context unless something bizarre happens; the new leader would be able to distance themselves from the mistakes under Truss. It’s always the economy that kills governments, so it’s possible the Tories are doomed to lose the next election regardless now. Could MPs trust their members to elect a vaguely acceptable and competent leader (in the eyes of the general public) though? A parliamentary by-election pasting in one of their traditional strongholds could be another trigger, although there’s none scheduled and could probably be explained away. There are several in prospect if rumours are correct about the contents of Boris Johnson's resignation honours.
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YouGov
Oct 10, 2022 19:52:58 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Oct 10, 2022 19:52:58 GMT
Do they offer it as an option? Of course YG is a panel sample so may favour organised recruitment I'm on the YouGov panel, and they do prompt for Reform. In this particular case, I expect that prompting for them means that the poll is significantly over-estimating their support. and what would have been the result of that, apart from a mountain of lost deposits? You could say the same about lots of other parties. Greens, Lib Dems for a start. Greens and Lib Dems get short money. Reform don't, and it seems relatively unlikely that standing everywhere would have changed that. At most they'd have taken enough votes off the Tories to change the result in a handful of close seats.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 13, 2022 8:01:51 GMT
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 13, 2022 8:21:48 GMT
I remember a few years back (at the height of the UKIP boom) being told on here that there is a 'natural right wing majority' in the UK. Total left of centre vote per above: 73%...
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